August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[Phil]

This is a sadist’s weather pattern.

[Phil]

It warms up fast here. Right after sunrise, boom, shoots up to 90/80 almost instantly.

Back home we’ll have 1-2 days per week like this in Jul/Aug only but down here it’s every single day for 3+ months.  

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KGASTSIM33/graph/2022-08-20/2022-08-20/daily

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

It warms up fast here. Right after sunrise, boom, shoots up to 90/80 almost instantly.

Back home we’ll have 1-2 days per week like this in Jul/Aug only but down here it’s every single day for 3+ months.  

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KGASTSIM33/graph/2022-08-20/2022-08-20/daily

You said you were returning home on 8/17.     Your escape from the heat and humidity in DC is to go to a worse place?    That is like me going to Sitka to find sun when its raining every day here.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

? He’s been here, handing out downvotes like candy.

Those are so 2021. Puke reactions have been more my jam lately. VERY fitting for the current weather pattern we are stuck in.

[TacomaWx]

Got down to 62 this morning 3rd +60 low in a row. 

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You said you were returning home on 8/17.     Your escape from the heat and humidity in DC is to go to a worse place?    That is like me going to Sitka to find sun when its raining every day here.  

I’m returning 8/21. Tomorrow evening.

And it’s a love/hate relationship for sure. This area is so amazingly beautiful. Very quiet, with nice homes cloistered away in an endless expanse of majestic live oaks and southern pines, far removed from any semblance of urbanization or city life. It gets so dark at night you can see every star in the sky as well as the disk of the Milky Way galaxy.

The conditions are trying, though. If it weren’t for the sea breeze I wouldn’t be able to do it. Back home we get the same weather as well, but it’s not 24/7 like down here. Those breaks make a big difference, even if they’re few and far between.

[TacomaWx]

29 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is a sadist’s weather pattern.

Sometimes the models just get stuck in a “default” pattern. Kinda like December 2021 before the event really got going. Just kept showing the same recurring pattern but as soon as Christmas came around the transition in the long range started to show up. 

[Phil]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Sometimes the models just get stuck in a “default” pattern. Kinda like December 2021 before the event really got going. Just kept showing the same recurring pattern but as soon as Christmas came around the transition in the long range started to show up. 

The stratospheric polar vortex is projected to develop in 1 week. That’s the first thing I look for to signal the end of summer. Clock is ticking.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The stratospheric polar vortex is projected to develop in 1 week. That’s the first thing I look for to signal the end of summer. Clock is ticking.

Just 4 months until the days start getting longer.   Clock is ticking!  

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just 4 months until the days start getting longer.   Clock is ticking!  

Sorry, got my mind thinking about Fall. Baby steps, people, baby steps. 

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You said you were returning home on 8/17.     Your escape from the heat and humidity in DC is to go to a worse place?    That is like me going to Sitka to find sun when its raining every day here.  

Also, you absolutely would love it here.

Cool temperatures are physically impossible in JJA, in fact it hasn’t dropped below 70°F since May 14th, and probably won’t do so again until deep into October.

Cloudy days are very rare, the rains are brief and heavy with lots of lightning, and there’s little to no traffic. And no graffiti on anything.

Sounds like Tim paradise to me!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Also, you absolutely would love it here.

Cool temperatures are physically impossible in JJA, in fact it hasn’t dropped below 70°F since May 14th, and probably won’t do so again until deep into October.

Cloudy days are very rare, the rains are brief and heavy with lots of lightning, and there’s little to no traffic. And no graffiti on anything.

Sounds like Tim paradise to me!

I like 70s and 80s with low to moderate humidity and dry weather in the summer.    Not sure if I have ever mentioned that before in the last 20 years!    Still my paradise?   

[RentonHill]

13 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Sorry, got my mind thinking about Fall. Baby steps, people, baby steps. 

Makes me want to get some new boots

[Phil]

35 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

I tried Zillowing properties there but couldn't find anything I liked.

I might have done that at some point.

[Timmy Supercell]

31 minutes ago, Phil said:

Also, you absolutely would love it here.

Cool temperatures are physically impossible in JJA, in fact it hasn’t dropped below 70°F since May 14th, and probably won’t do so again until deep into October.

Cloudy days are very rare, the rains are brief and heavy with lots of lightning, and there’s little to no traffic. And no graffiti on anything.

Sounds like Tim paradise to me!

DC may not represent the majority of this area. There was one morning I had upper 50's! But that is pretty rare in the summer. "Cool" can be subjective, unless a temperature is specifically below average; I won't consider anything around 65 to be cool. 

It is a sunny climate, though we can still get a few days here and there that are overcast, or even days where precipitation is recorded through most of a day. 

I did actually experience one day here in July, where most of the day recorded rainfall but did not drop below 70 or 69. So rain here in the summer, is definitely warmer than anywhere in the PNW.

[MossMan]

I was expecting 108 degree full blasting sun here at PDX! WTH! 
68 currently and I am wearing a sweatshirt. First time in 37 years that I have stepped foot in Oregon! 

[SnowWillarrive]

22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I was expecting 108 degree full blasting sun here at PDX! WTH! 
68 currently and I am wearing a sweatshirt. First time in 37 years that I have stepped foot in Oregon! 

I’m shocked 

[TT-SEA]

26 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I was expecting 108 degree full blasting sun here at PDX! WTH! 
68 currently and I am wearing a sweatshirt. First time in 37 years that I have stepped foot in Oregon! 

Typical PNW gloomy weather... to be expected. 

[Deweydog]

35 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I was expecting 108 degree full blasting sun here at PDX! WTH! 
68 currently and I am wearing a sweatshirt. First time in 37 years that I have stepped foot in Oregon! 

You should go try pumping your own gas.

[Doinko]

The GFS has backed off for the heatwave next week thankfully, but is still showing a major heatwave in early September. It probably will back off though 

[Omegaraptor]

3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

The GFS has backed off for the heatwave next week thankfully, but is still showing a major heatwave in early September. It probably will back off though 

120 in Chico, not too bad

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I was expecting 108 degree full blasting sun here at PDX! WTH! 
68 currently and I am wearing a sweatshirt. First time in 37 years that I have stepped foot in Oregon! 

Things have changed a bit since 1985, Marty McFly.

[snow_wizard]

The models are a steaming pile today, but at least today is another cooler than expected day with a deep marine layer.  I guess we just have to hope for more lucky breaks over the next two weeks.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Things have changed a bit since 1985, Marty McFly.

1985 was actually a pretty hot summer couched in a very cold year.

[snow_wizard]

I wouldn't read too much into those winter forecasts.  The ECMWF literally shows nowhere being colder than normal this winter.  Not going to happen like that.

[snow_wizard]

Well....day one of the GFS meteograms are going to go down in flames.  That's why I pay little attention to them.

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Well....day one of the GFS meteograms are going to go down in flames.  That's why I pay little attention to them.

Should be the last day in sight with significant marine layer to mess up the model temps.    Today was obviously going to be a problem for several days now.   Easy to spot.   Not random.

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

1985 was actually a pretty hot summer couched in a very cold year.

July 1985 is surprisingly still the hottest month ever recorded in Portland.

I was curious so I calculated what the avg temp of the month would be if I used the NWS forecast and the weather.com forecast for the rest of the month and we'd end up with the hottest month on record by more than a degree in Portland.

[Omegaraptor]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

1985 was actually a pretty hot summer couched in a very cold year.

IIRC, summer 1985 had a pretty different 500mb pattern from summer 2015/18/21/22. It was more of an NE-Pacific ridge that was far enough east to roast the PNW in July than a massive bloated 4CH type deal like we’ve seen repeatedly in the last decade.

[RentonHill]

11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

IIRC, summer 1985 had a pretty different 500mb pattern from summer 2015/18/21/22. It was more of an NE-Pacific ridge that was far enough east to roast the PNW in July than a massive bloated 4CH type deal like we’ve seen repeatedly in the last decade.

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

The GFS has backed off for the heatwave next week thankfully, but is still showing a major heatwave in early September. It probably will back off though 

Could be record smashing or could be a September 2020 repeat.

[Anti Marine Layer]

However the September 2020 wind event was caused by a super strong cold front over the Rockies.

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Could be record smashing or could be a September 2020 repeat.

Hoping something like September 1988 doesn't happen. Portland went:

9/1: 98/56
9/2: 105/57
9/3: 93/57

Seems like LA was also very warm with that event

[SnowWillarrive]

29 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Euro operational now on board as well for triple digits at the end of the month. Will be interesting to see the ensembles.

The weather models by default just assume PDX will be at 100. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really nice day. Cloudy and 64.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

20 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Could be record smashing or could be a September 2020 repeat.

We had way worse soil water moisture content at that point. Our cool spring saved our asses and kept a decent portion of the snowpack in tact by today's standards. So therefore this season we're kinda like an 8-9 NFL team for the water year going into this.

Back in 2020 we were like a 2-15 NFL team on the water year spectrum from where we needed to be, so that also exacerbated the problem.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We had way worse soil water moisture content at that point. Our cool spring saved our asses and kept a decent portion of the snowpack in tact by today's standards. So therefore this season we're kinda like an 8-9 NFL team for the water year going into this.

Back in 2020 we were like a 2-15 NFL team on the water year spectrum from where we needed to be, so that also exacerbated the problem.

Good point, it’s starting to dry out but it’s the greenest I can remember it for this time of year. 

[Jakewestsalem]

Getting ready to head out to McMinnville to watch the USAF Thunderbirds fly today.

Marine deck has lifted and it should be perfect conditions

[SilverFallsAndrew]

69 down in Stayton, cloudy down here too, looks like a little clearing out west of Salem. 

[ChrisEl Elyon]

70° Cloudy here in Belltown Seattle Neighborhood