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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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  • Longtimer

My track record is pretty good for seasonal forecasts. Though I whiffed on January last year. We'll see, I'm not saying I am out on this winter, but there are definitely some concerning signals developing. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My track record is pretty good for seasonal forecasts. Though I whiffed on January last year. We'll see, I'm not saying I am out on this winter, but there are definitely some concerning signals developing. 

Aside from a few weeks in January, this winter is going to suck ballz. Take it to the bank.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Aside from a few weeks in January, this winter is going to suck ballz. Take it to the bank.

Most of our winters are only a 3-5 day window for snow/cold once a year anyways. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Aside from a few weeks in January, this winter is going to suck ballz. Take it to the bank.

A few weeks in January sounds like a big window... that could make it a great winter regardless of what happens in the other months. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I feel like I lack the hubris to attempt a seasonal forecast 

Well with that attitude humanity would still be in the dark ages.

Being wrong is nothing to fear. 🤓 Over 99% of all proposed scientific hypotheses have been disproven, but 100% of our progress has stemmed from that < 1% which were correct.

 

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well with that attitude humanity would still be in the dark ages.

Being wrong is nothing to fear. 🤓 Over 99% of all proposed scientific hypotheses have been disproven, but 100% of our progress has stemmed from that < 1% which were correct.

 

I can tell you what I’m hoping for. Wet and active with some good mountain snows. And maybe a few fun windows for the lowlands.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well with that attitude humanity would still be in the dark ages.

Being wrong is nothing to fear. 🤓 Over 99% of all proposed scientific hypotheses have been disproven, but 100% of our progress has stemmed from that < 1% which were correct.

 

Any success with our seasonal forecasts just comes down to luck on guessing.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I can tell you what I’m hoping for. Wet and active with some good mountain snows. And maybe a few fun windows for the lowlands.

A nice cold inversion period at some point would be nice too. Seems like it’s been awhile since we’ve seen that. Inversions are really our best bet for sustained cold and wintery feeling weather these days.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like one of our favorite spots on the Rogue River is on fire this morning. Can pretty much count on losing a place absolutely dear to me just about every season now.

Where is that? The Rum Creek Fire on the lower Rogue or a new one? The upper Rogue is absolutely gorgeous and one of the last river basins in the Cascades that hasn't torched in the last few years... I think about that a lot. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Most of our winters are only a 3-5 day window for snow/cold once a year anyways. 

February 2021 is a prime example of that. That winter completely sucked outside of those 3-4 days. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I can tell you what I’m hoping for. Wet and active with some good mountain snows. And maybe a few fun windows for the lowlands.

That's a good goal, and probably doable. The last thing I think any of us want is the seemingly annual 4-6 week suck fest that doesn't even feature cold inversions. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Where is that? The Rum Creek Fire on the lower Rogue or a new one? The upper Rogue is absolutely gorgeous and one of the last river basins in the Cascades that hasn't torched in the last few years... I think about that a lot. 

It’s the Rum Creek. Have some great memories of camping with my dad and brother down by Graves Creek in the early 2000’s. Pretty awesome stretch of river. Judging by the amount of dead trees last time we were down there in 2018 I figured it was just a matter of time before that area burned though. Maybe we can manage to lose the entire Wild Rogue wilderness before the fall rains come.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Nothing is being lost... fire is a part of the ecosystem.   It just may not look the way you want it to look during our very short time on this planet.   We want everything to be perfect during our time here.  But nature doesn't care about our short window of time.    Its on a much, much longer time scale.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I think another late start to winter. I notice the Decembers with above average snowfall don't happen twice in a row at my old area. Late winter needs to be a tad wetter through, February since 2020 has been leaving southern Oregon high and dry in the snow department. Even March too.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

People who mostly value material possessions and status symbols in our society can’t relate with the pain of losing a place.

I can certainly relate. I grew up hiking and fishing in the Opal Creek area, spent summers working for a family friend at their cabin along the little North Fork Santiam. Fishing at Olallie Lake, hiking the Whitewater Trail to Jefferson Park so on and so forth. When you lose those places you lose a part of yourself, you will never get to share those experiences with your kids or relive them yourself. Knowing that "these things happen" or "someday in 200 years it will all grow back," is no comfort, the way it was is gone for the rest of our lives, in 200 years no one will even remember we existed. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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13 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I think another late start to winter. I notice the Decembers with above average snowfall don't happen twice in a row at my old area. Late winter needs to be a tad wetter through, February since 2020 has been leaving southern Oregon high and dry in the snow department. Even March too.

I didn't realize the N/S difference in Feb 2021, that was the snowiest February on record at Government Camp!

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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  • Longtimer
Just now, Deweydog said:

If God didn’t want forests to burn he wouldn’t have made them inherently flammable. 

Stop being a d*ck for once in your life. No one is saying forests shouldn’t ever burn. I if anyone understand the important role forest fire plays in ecosystems. I’ve spent years doing research on it. Fires have been in our forests for millennia. Doesn’t make the personal loss any easier, even if it all balances out in the cosmic scheme of things. The rate of favorite spots lost to fire in the last ten years alone has been pretty remarkable. To put yourself in my shoes try to picture a similarly tragic event like your favorite sports team not making the playoffs, or a rained out holiday weekend. Just because everything is meaningless in the grand scheme of things doesn’t mean you won’t get disappointed about it.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

February 2021 is a prime example of that. That winter completely sucked outside of those 3-4 days. 

Weren't there reports of 2" of ice in places near Oregon City and West Linn? I wonder when the last time there was such a major ice storm in the Willamette Valley.

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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6 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I didn't realize the N/S difference in Feb 2021, that was the snowiest February on record at Government Camp!

Oh yes, I know parts of the cascades had a lot of snow in 2021. Particularly Snoqualmie area the last two winters. 

Good snow, down to about Mt. Hood or so. The La Ninas I know and remember more often than not included areas down to Northern California in snowstorms and at least regular amounts of rainfall, neither of which has happened much there in the last few. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Lots of virtue signaling.   In the end... we all just want nature to bend to our own personal will so we have what is important to us.   And nature doesn't care.  

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lots of virtue signaling.   In the end... we all just want nature to bend to our own personal will so we have what is important to us.   And nature doesn't care.  

But that doesn't mean we should just sit back and do nothing. We all have important roles to play in preserving and protecting the ecosystem. 

Uncle_Sam_style_Smokey_Bear_Only_You.jpg

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53 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

People who mostly value material possessions and status symbols in our society can’t relate with the pain of losing a place.

Not my driveway, but isn't it ironic how they name the behemoth gas guzzlers after the things they destroy? (GMC Yukon, GMC Yukon Extra Large, Chevy Tahoe, Toyota Sequoia)

20220825_105220.thumb.jpg.f8923ee00ece5cf584b6582019834c72.jpg

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lots of virtue signaling.   In the end... we all just want nature to bend to our own personal will so we have what is important to us.   And nature doesn't care.  

Yeah like for instance I'd prefer your sentences to end with only one space after the period but we can't get that can we!

On one hand - of course the 2nd noble truth is that all suffering is caused by desire or attachment so of course trying to change things from the way they are is often folly, though I think with the environment that is certainly up for some level of discussion. Very likely it is largely out of our control other than blasting fireworks into the Gorge

On the other hand - nature also doesn't care if a member of my family dies does it? It's callous to tell people "well nature doesn't care" if they lost something very valuable to them, whether it's a wife or parent or their favorite hiking trail or a great memory they had as a kid. It's condescending and belittling behavior for little to no reason. This isn't The Road!

“He walked out in the gray light and stood and he saw for a brief moment the absolute truth of the world. The cold relentless circling of the intestate earth. Darkness implacable. The blind dogs of the sun in their running. The crushing black vacuum of the universe. And somewhere two hunted animals trembling like ground-foxes in their cover. Borrowed time and borrowed world and borrowed eyes with which to sorrow it.”

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1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said:

Yeah like for instance I'd prefer your sentences to end with only one space after the period but we can't get that can we!

On one hand - of course the 2nd noble truth is that all suffering is caused by desire or attachment so of course trying to change things from the way they are is often folly, though I think with the environment that is certainly up for some level of discussion. Very likely it is largely out of our control other than blasting fireworks into the Gorge

On the other hand - nature also doesn't care if a member of my family dies does it? It's callous to tell people "well nature doesn't care" if they lost something very valuable to them, whether it's a wife or parent or their favorite hiking trail or a great memory they had as a kid. It's condescending and belittling behavior for little to no reason. This isn't The Road!

“He walked out in the gray light and stood and he saw for a brief moment the absolute truth of the world. The cold relentless circling of the intestate earth. Darkness implacable. The blind dogs of the sun in their running. The crushing black vacuum of the universe. And somewhere two hunted animals trembling like ground-foxes in their cover. Borrowed time and borrowed world and borrowed eyes with which to sorrow it.”

I understand loss... its inherent to the human condition.  My issue is that a certain person starts talking about his loss by mocking other people.   

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I understand loss... its inherent to the human condition.  My issue is that a certain person starts talking about his loss by mocking other people.   

Understanding I don't have a staff tag if that is the case wouldn't it be smart to take this slap fest to DM or put a user on ignore rather than this sort of embarrassing public tête-à-tête and I'm quite sure I am the very first person to ever suggest this am I right? What do I win??!

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  • Longtimer
Just now, OysterPrintout said:

Understanding I don't have a staff tag if that is the case wouldn't it be smart to take this slap fest to DM or put a user on ignore rather than this sort of embarrassing public tête-à-tête and I'm quite sure I am the very first person to ever suggest this am I right? What do I win??!

I would love my posts to be completely ignored by certain individuals. Sounds like a dream come true. Just as I have ignored dozens of fight picking attempts this week alone. If the ignoring was truly mutual we really wouldn’t have a problem anymore.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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  • Longtimer
7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't think we need to make this personal, we all have different values and experiences. I think someone from up in the Puget Sound region is going to look at this differently at this point. They would probably feel somewhat immune to this, and they are not losing the places they have fond memories of. 

After September 2020 I will never be the same. It was by far the most traumatic experience I have ever had. You build your home and life, and then to have to literally run for your life, I can't even describe what that feels like. Being woken up by law enforcement yelling to flee, not being able to see anything because its pitch dark from smoke, not knowing where the fire is... It was terrifying. But we were lucky, our house ended up being fine, and the fire actually stopped a couple miles away. Many many people were less fortunate than us. We just had to leave our home for 8 days, with about half that time not knowing if we would have a home to go back to, but it could have been a lot worse. And you gain a new perspective from something like that, you feel for the people who didn't have a home to go back to, and you have a new sense of empathy towards people who lose their homes in fires in California, Texas, wherever, when you see it on the news it's no longer just an abstract. But you cannot expect people to haven't been through something like that to understand, there is no way they could, and that is fine, that is good, I wouldn't wish it on anyone. 

Matt isn’t from the Puget Sound region. As for the rest, I really feel for you dawg. Losing places you travel to and have fond memories of is one thing, having your very home and property threatened is a whole different level of horror that I would never want to experience.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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  • Longtimer
45 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Stop being a d*ck for once in your life. No one is saying forests shouldn’t ever burn. I if anyone understand the important role forest fire plays in ecosystems. I’ve spent years doing research on it. Fires have been in our forests for millennia. Doesn’t make the personal loss any easier, even if it all balances out in the cosmic scheme of things. The rate of favorite spots lost to fire in the last ten years alone has been pretty remarkable. To put yourself in my shoes try to picture a similarly tragic event like your favorite sports team not making the playoffs, or a rained out holiday weekend. Just because everything is meaningless in the grand scheme of things doesn’t mean you won’t get disappointed about it.

Nature is a *****. I just happen to think that loss and acceptance of natural law can run concurrently. There’s been a lot of references to climate divinity of late, so I think it’s important for some omnipotent perspective. Seems irrational to thank God for the rain but fail to acknowledge his responsibility for ruining these pristine wilderness areas which should remain locked in time.

It’s also not lost of some of us that these discussions only seem to swell when discussing cherry-picked aspects of nature’s wrath. Yes, the deck is somewhat stacked these days but it tends to undermine the melodrama.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Nature is a *****. I just happen to think that loss and acceptance of natural law can run concurrently. There’s been a lot of references to climate divinity of late, so I think it’s important for some omnipotent perspective. Seems irrational to thank God for the rain but fail to acknowledge his responsibility for ruining these pristine wilderness areas which should remain locked in time.

It’s also not lost of some of us that these discussions only seem to swell when discussing cherry-picked aspects of nature’s wrath. Yes, the deck is somewhat stacked these days but it tends to undermine the melodrama.

Well said.  

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1 minute ago, T-Town said:

In other news…. Things starting to bubble. 

12E90EC3-5E10-40D2-BD46-200650055C34.jpeg

23CF3434-D8C1-478F-85B6-1F4389851DE4.jpeg

My son is doing the Enchantments Trail today with his friends.   He is probably seeing the same thing.  

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  • Longtimer
6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Nature is a *****. I just happen to think that loss and acceptance of natural law can run concurrently. There’s been a lot of references to climate divinity of late, so I think it’s important for some omnipotent perspective. Seems irrational to thank God for the rain but fail to acknowledge his responsibility for ruining these pristine wilderness areas which should remain locked in time.

It’s also not lost of some of us that these discussions only seem to swell when discussing cherry-picked aspects of nature’s wrath. Yes, the deck is somewhat stacked these days but it tends to undermine the melodrama.

I’m not even sure what you are referring to here. The praying emojis? Anyway, thank you for once again implicitly underestimating my capacity for reasoned and nuanced thought. You are always good for that in a pinch.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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12Z ECMWF still showing some rain from Thursday - Saturday of next week... but farther north than the 00Z run.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Understanding I don't have a staff tag if that is the case wouldn't it be smart to take this slap fest to DM or put a user on ignore rather than this sort of embarrassing public tête-à-tête and I'm quite sure I am the very first person to ever suggest this am I right? What do I win??!

Just give up. This place sucks. It’s dominated by some absolutely terrible personalities and no one will do anything about it. 
 

You are way too smart and reasonable to post here.

Edited by FroYoBro
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Kinda disappointed the euros trending north with the system this weekend. Mostly leaves Oregon cascades high and dry. Maybe we will still see an over performance down there somehow. Hopefully the system in the longer range can work in southwards. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF still showing some rain from Thursday - Saturday of next week... but farther north than the 00Z run.   

This is going to waffle quite a bit as it fights the ridge... too much details to focus on. We'll see where this ends up happening.. 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Might be the first AR type event of the season if the 12Z ECMWF verifies...

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_12hr_inch-2292800.png

I expect the runs over the next few days to be all over the place with that system. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Up to 79 here at noon. Much warmer so far than yesterday. 

SEA is +2 compared to yesterday... which would put the high at 89.   But the wind is from the WSW now compared to N yesterday so it might not keep pace today.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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