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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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36 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Hoping something like September 1988 doesn't happen. Portland went:

9/1: 98/56
9/2: 105/57
9/3: 93/57

Seems like LA was also very warm with that event

That one had a 100 at KLMT on 9/3, ended up at +2.6 even with a mid month cool down. Warmer than 2017.

Dry too with only 1 day it rained. 2020 was an even drier September with a trace, which is why I think that's an absolute worst case, and it had more consistent warmth rather than just a warm early month.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Flat out frustrating pattern.  Even with the MJO in a classic Nina position we just can't get rid of those below normal heights over the GOA.  I'm just thankful we managed to sneak in a decently cool day today.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Flat out frustrating pattern.  Even with the MJO in a classic Nina position we just can't get rid of those below normal heights over the GOA.  I'm just thankful we managed to sneak in a decently cool day today.

it's 73 heading into the mid 80's soon here today?  is that cool?

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7 hours ago, Phil said:

That was a -QBO winter though.

Didn’t have a real snowstorm here until late March that year. Lots of wind though..Dulles hit 71mph on March 2nd just from gradient/diurnal mixing. 

God that winter sucked. In mid Jan 2018 Huntsville Alabama had more snow than South lake Tahoe 3" versus 1". It didn't snow in the Sierra till March that winter.

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Flat out frustrating pattern.  Even with the MJO in a classic Nina position we just can't get rid of those below normal heights over the GOA.  I'm just thankful we managed to sneak in a decently cool day today.

Even though today is the coolest day in the near future it's still only slightly cooler than average. I couldn't imagine seeing highs in the 50s here like in August 1968!

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I was thinking, I haven't seen a good 4"+ snowfall while living here that wasn't blown around by the wind. Feb 2018 was probably the closest but I only saw 2-2.5" with each system or Feb 2019 when I saw a nice 3" at the end of the month. Feb 2014 was extremely windy, most of the events in 2016/2017 were very windy.  Feb 2021 was very windy and there was a lot of sleet/ice too. This winter we had a few light events that added up but the most at a time was 2" in April. Maybe something like Jan 2007? The wind does make snowstorms fun though so I don't mind too much!

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43 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Flat out frustrating pattern.  Even with the MJO in a classic Nina position we just can't get rid of those below normal heights over the GOA.  I'm just thankful we managed to sneak in a decently cool day today.

the warm blob in the N Pac has become a semi permanent feature over the last 8 years or so.  contributes to all that I think

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2 hours ago, The Swamp said:

it's 73 heading into the mid 80's soon here today?  is that cool?

Mid 80S?  You actually believe the GFS?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

I think it’s more of a symptom rather than a cause. 

It not really the same as the blob anyway.  That was a major +PDO event and this is tanked PDO.  Very different.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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75 at SEA at 4pm.  As I said...a decently cool day.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Mid 80S?  You actually believe the GFS?

You never acknowledge the days when the GFS does better than the ECMWF.    The lack of marine layer this upcoming week means the GFS will outperform the ECMWF on surface temps.      

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

75 at SEA at 4pm.  As I said...a decently cool day.

Going to end up close to the normal high for the day... the clouds have cleared now.    Decently cool compared to recent days but pretty close to climo.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, Jakewestsalem said:

Getting ready to head out to McMinnville to watch the USAF Thunderbirds fly today.

Marine deck has lifted and it should be perfect conditions

I live here in Mac and watched the whole thing from my deck.....it was awesome! 

Next year we get the Blue Angels!

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Was really hot along the North Santiam above Detroit. Hit 92 on my car thermometer around Idahana. Only 81 down in Mill City. Marine layer was already burned off just past Lyons around 1p. 

F9D42C79-08F8-401E-82B7-44A95CF289EC.jpeg

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F8CC0A92-B9FA-4BB4-A577-11D65ABCE3A2.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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17 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah and with the warm overnight low it won’t even net a negative departure. 

76/62 at SEA... through 5 p.m.    Might pick up a degree on the high yet.

Right now today is a +3 departure in the books.   And that is using the new warm averages.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You know shiit is off its rocker as of late when you have Jim called what seemingly a pretty average day for this time of year “a decently cool day.” Expectations are shifting right in front of our eyes. 

— SEA with a 76, BFI with a 77. 
right on average. 

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WILDFIRE UPDATE  (Lightning Lights Up Idaho Edition)

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/20/22  

Washington - 6 (6 new fires today, same as yesterday.  We are back to four large fires in the state, dropping from five.  The new Wagner Road Fire from yesterday has thankfully not grown. The total drops from 39 to 36.) Total: 36

Oregon - 5 (5 new fires in the state. There remains to be three large fires in the state, the same one's burning for a long time.  They are the Miller Road Fire, the Cedar Creek Mf Fire, and the Windigo Fire. The total increases from 26 to 29.) Total: 29

Idaho - 19 (Lightning has lit Idaho like a match in the past 24hrs.  Lightning strikes struck from the north to the south all across the Bitterroot Range. There are now 19 new fires in the state. The hope is these fires will burn themselves out and not grow. There are three large fires in the state.  There are no fires in the SE of the state. The total number of fires grows from 30 to 43.) Total: 43

California - 29 (29 new fires in the state of California. The lack of fires in CA this season is quite refreshing.  Anything below 100 is considered good in California the past few years.  If we didn't include the new fires sparked, California only had 27 fires burning, less then the amount of new fires sparked in the past 24hrs. The total drops from 57 to 56.) Total: 56

British Columbia - 75 (75 new fires in the province.  Lightning has sparked several new fires along the Columbia Mountains with the majority within a few miles of Revelstoke.  This is not a good combination as BC crews have had a rough year at it this year. There are six large fires in the province. The total amount of fires explodes from 137 to 170.) Total: 170

Who Has had The Most Amount of Fires (Ranked by days in which they've had the most fires, only counting days we've kept track here.)

1. British Columbia - 26 days with the most wildfires

2. Oregon - 2 days with the most wildfires.

SMOKE UPDATE

Western Washington is back in the clear with clean air and no smoke.  Virtually all locations east of the Cascade's will see moderate air as the smoke continues to blow eastward. This includes the population centers of Wenatchee, the Twi-Cities, Spokane, Moses Lake, Yakima, and Walla Walla.  The long range forecast for Washington show clean air west of the Cascade's and mixed air east of the Cascade's.  Expect hazy and smokey skies in Spokane for multiple days.

Most of Oregon is in good air quality as winds push the wind Northeast into the Columba Plateau of Washington. The exception is Bend which may deal with some localized smoke in the coming days. Even Medford is seeing a mostly clear day today. Smoke may be trapped within the Wallowa Valley and cause some degrading air quality.

Boise is smoke free today, but locations from Lewiston northward are under a layer of smoke from British Columbia and California. This smoke is mostly trapped against the mountain ranges.  Until we get stronger winds, the smoke will remain trapped in this region.  Lewiston and the CDA can expect smokey skies and moderate air conditions for multiple days. 

Western Montana is under heavy to moderate smoke with lower air quality conditions. After Helena, air is clean throughout the eastern half of the state.

Smoke is more localized in California, more so than the past week.  Smoke and moderate air quality fill many of the mountain valleys to the north.  Redding is seeing some improvement over yesterday as is Sacramento.  Southern California in the LA Metro is seeing degrading air quality due to air pollution, not smoke. 

Air quality has clear up in Lower Mainland, especially east up the Fraser. Locations near fires are seeing moderate to unhealthy conditions especially in deep valleys. Smoke aloft is also flowing into the Prairie Provinces and into eastern Washington, Idaho, and Montana. 

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76F today.  Long range for Everett is warmer than I would like, but nothing.... horrible.  It's crazy how long the heat has remained and how dry it's been.  I don't even know what rain looks like anymore.  Is it green?  Is this what Southern California feels like? 

I can say my fans have worked overtime this year.

Screen Shot 2022-08-20 at 5.16.52 PM.png

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23 minutes ago, Cloud said:

You know shiit is off its rocker as of late when you have Jim called what seemingly a pretty average day for this time of year “a decently cool day.” Expectations are shifting right in front of our eyes. 

— SEA with a 76, BFI with a 77. 
right on average. 

By this summer's standards...yup.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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43 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

We’ll we all know what happened later on that winter. February of ‘89 ring a bell?

I'll never forget that season.  Very late first freeze, and a very boring autumn but then things got very fun.  Bedsides the early Feb event the area I was living in had a big c-zone snow in January and then the big March dump.  Also dropped to 17 in March IMBY.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

Unrelated but the monthly PNA for December 2021 came in at -3.90! That's a lot more negative than I would have thought.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.mon.pna.wg.jan1950-current.ascii.table

Wow!  I know the pattern that brought the cold was pretty tanked, but that's beyond impressive.  One thing for sure is those deeply tanked PNA cold waves bring a lot of snow for the Seattle area.  The big minus EPO events are better for places further south.

EDIT:  Looking at that table Feb 2018 and 2019 were extreme low PNA also.  Pretty obvious why the recent cold and snow events have been so north centric.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!  I know the pattern that brought the cold was pretty tanked, but that's beyond impressive.  One thing for sure is those deeply tanked PNA cold waves bring a lot of snow for the Seattle area.  The big minus EPO events are better for places further south.

That was also good for snow further south, 10.1" of snow in Eugene! They also saw their snowiest December day on record. Portland just got shadowed with precip. Even thought the arctic air didn't make it too far south, it was a really nice regional snow event, even in the Valley!

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2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

That was also good for snow further south, 10.1" of snow in Eugene! They also saw their snowiest December day on record. Portland just got shadowed with precip. Even thought the arctic air didn't make it too far south, it was a really nice regional snow event, even in the Valley!

Yeah...the maritime polar air mass that hit OR was a beast.  The cold up here was pretty legit.  A very enjoyable run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...the maritime polar air mass that hit OR was a beast.  The cold up here was pretty legit.  A very enjoyable run.

Sadly no transition snowstorm but the Gorge did see a major snowstorm at the end of it, I think 2'-3' in the area!

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