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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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Some highs around Seattle today

Interbay/Pier 79°

Queen Anne 78°

South Lake Union 83°

Belltown 79°

Myrtle Edwards Park 79°

Seattle Center 78°

Capitol Hill 80°

First Hill 78°

Downtown 77°

Westridge 77°

North Beacon Hill 78°

Georgetown/BFI 79°

Alki 78°

West Seattle 79°

SeaTac 77°

 

AVG Climo High 76-78°

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Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft

Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft

☥𓂀✡️

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3 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

1985 and 2008 analogs galore!

Just to add to the party, I did Beacon Rock today for the first time since I think 2014!

I like my analog better.

But the wife seems convinced it was 2007….

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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34 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

Some highs around Seattle today

Interbay/Pier 79°

Queen Anne 78°

South Lake Union 83°

Belltown 79°

Myrtle Edwards Park 79°

Seattle Center 78°

Capitol Hill 80°

First Hill 78°

Downtown 77°

Westridge 77°

North Beacon Hill 78°

Georgetown/BFI 79°

Alki 78°

West Seattle 79°

SeaTac 77°

 

AVG Climo High 76-78°

Right where they should be.

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68.3 average temp for august now up to +2.9 this month. Most of the model runs from this afternoon could really get us to the hottest month on record and dethrone July 2015. Should be the hottest august atleast as we’re already +0.3 warmer than 2014 or 2017 the current record holders. 

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Definitely some improvement on the 0z GFS for late next week.  We'll take what we can get I guess.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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19 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

New GFS is much faster with the Friday crash. Saturday looks legit cool now.

The 18z was better than the 12z, and now this run is better yet.  We shall see.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Still ways out but 4 of the last 6 GFS runs in the LR showed the Atlantic tropics may be waking up early Sept. been unusually quiet. 

The 18z actually showed two hurricanes hitting the US at the same time.  That would be exceedingly rare to say the least.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

68.3 average temp for august now up to +2.9 this month. Most of the model runs from this afternoon could really get us to the hottest month on record and dethrone July 2015. Should be the hottest august atleast as we’re already +0.3 warmer than 2014 or 2017 the current record holders. 

Actually 1967 is the record holder for August.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I think the warmer SSTs along the coast have a lot to do with the high humidity not letting go.  The air temps along the WA Coast and the Strait are a lot higher than would normally be seen with onshore flow this time of year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The GFS shows upper 40s and low 50s for lows next weekend.  That would feel amazing right about now!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like the 10 month rainy season is about to start.   There has been an amazing amount of complaining during our short 8 weeks of dry weather.    

It rained for 12 weeks straight in my area before this break.  Literally.   88 out of 90 days.   8 weeks would have been a cake walk!    😀

 

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the 10 month rainy season is about to start.   There has been an amazing amount of complaining during our short 8 weeks of dry weather.    

It rained for 12 weeks straight in my area before this break.  Literally.   88 out of 90 days.   8 weeks would have been a cake walk!    😀

 

 

Bye Felicia 

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5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Bye Felicia 

In all seriousness... a straight up 8 week dry spell was all but inevitable after the spring we had.    Not surprising that it happened.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the 10 month rainy season is about to start.   There has been an amazing amount of complaining during our short 8 weeks of dry weather.    

It rained for 12 weeks straight in my area before this break.  Literally.   88 out of 90 days.   8 weeks would have been a cake walk!    😀

 

 

don't cry because it's over smile because it happened

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the 10 month rainy season is about to start.   There has been an amazing amount of complaining during our short 8 weeks of dry weather.    

It rained for 12 weeks straight in my area before this break.  Literally.   88 out of 90 days.   8 weeks would have been a cake walk!    😀

 

 

I’m willing to bet there’s gonna be lots of very nice weather still next month too. The faucet will start to turn on sure…but there’s still lots of time for good weather. 

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Just now, TacomaWx said:

I’m willing to bet there’s gonna be lots of very nice weather still next month too. The faucet will start to turn on sure…but there’s still lots of time for good weather. 

Yeah... I am hoping we can still score a summery September.    And the Mariners make the playoffs!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just analyzing the 500mb pattern on the models. The divergence seems to come with how exactly the ULL splits away from the GOA trough later this week. Runs that do a complete cutoff well to the west give room for the low amp high along the coast and the high amplitude upstream high to merge into one complex around 150N, puts a trough over us. Runs that fail to split the ULL all the way drag the whole GOA trough to the SW, which pumps the 4CH back into the PNW and leaves the high amplitude high sitting up over western Alaska.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In all seriousness... a straight up 8 week dry spell was all but inevitable after the spring we had.    Not surprising that it happened.

We all know once the faucet is turned on it’ll be very hard to turn off. Our weather will take a nosedive once it happens. I’d say enjoy this nice stretch while we can…. just minus the mid-upper 80s to 90s and humidity stuff. 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I am hoping we can still score a summery September.    And the Mariners make the playoffs!

That's as rare as cool summer these days. In EWA we've been fortunate to avoid smoke this year so far.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Just analyzing the 500mb pattern on the models. The divergence seems to come with how exactly the ULL splits away from the GOA trough later this week. Runs that do a complete cutoff well to the west give room for the low amp high along the coast and the high amplitude upstream high to merge into one complex around 150N, puts a trough over us. Runs that fail to split the ULL all the way drag the whole GOA trough to the SW, which pumps the 4CH back into the PNW and leaves the high amplitude high sitting up over western Alaska.

Perfectly stated.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The ECMWF looks ok tonight also.  At least for now things are trending a bit more seasonal on the models.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the 10 month rainy season is about to start.   There has been an amazing amount of complaining during our short 8 weeks of dry weather.    

It rained for 12 weeks straight in my area before this break.  Literally.   88 out of 90 days.   8 weeks would have been a cake walk!    😀

 

 

Pasco is calling your name!

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Nice to see the models teasing a little rain. Y’all complaining about mid-80s is cute. 
 

The temp profile down here was weird yesterday. It was surprisingly hot up in the Western Cascades, but when I got back to the house it was only in the low 70s. Currently clear and in the mid 50s, almost 10 degrees above average, but it feels chilly compare to recent mild lows. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Pasco is calling your name!

We are going to Florida in November... so that will be nice.    We came back from Hawaii to a winter wonderland last December.    Repeat?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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