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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just passed our local bear.   This dude is strange... no fear of humans.   They said he is a juvenile.    I laid on the horn to see if I could scare him and he actually came towards the car to investigate.    Seems curious but not aggressive... but probably not a good situation. 

20220825_181749.jpg

What does Farmers Almanac say about things like this? 

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

ECMWF projection: 88°F

GFS projection: 95°F

Actual high: 89°F.

#LolGoofus

Yesterday the ECMWF showed 82 and the GFS showed 88 and the actual high at SEA was 87.     #eurocoldbias

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yesterday the ECMWF showed 82 and the GFS showed 88 and the actual high at SEA was 87.     #eurocoldbias

GFS is demonstrably worse.

Going to keep close tabs on this now. Will report back daily!

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

GFS is demonstrably worse.

Going to keep close tabs on this now. Will report back daily!

ECMWF is almost always too cold.   Tomorrow and Saturday might be the exception.   I think all the models are too warm for those days.  

But next week... the GFS output for SEA will be what actually happens out here.   👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It’s slower to cool down here. Still hanging onto 76. 72 SEA. 64 OLM. 

Dang SEA cools as fast as lightning. From 89 to 72 in a few hours is legit.

Meanwhile DCA high was 90 and it’s still plateaued at 80 as of midnight. 🤮 

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Just now, Phil said:

Dang SEA cools as fast as lightning. From 89 to 72 in a few hours.

Wish that was possible here. DCA high was 90 and it’s still plateaued at 80 as of midnight. 🤮 

I wonder if the dewpoint is higher there?   Do you have more humidity that western WA?   I will have to look it up.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But next week... the GFS output for SEA will be what actually happens out here.   👍

By next week your summer will have a few days left to run.

You are a blessed man.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

By next week your summer will have a few days left to run.

You are a blessed man.

And you are drinking again.   Always fun.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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20 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS is demonstrably worse.

Going to keep close tabs on this now. Will report back daily!

Somebody’s gotta do it while Jim is away!

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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  • Longtimer

87/58 on the day.

Currently 64.

Spectacular day to play at the lake! 

2DC83ACB-7D9A-4B2A-8E6B-B9EB548AE7A9.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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00Z GFS looking sort of wet for the holiday weekend.   Wish it could come a little earlier in the week but that seems unlikely. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
38 minutes ago, Phil said:

In other news I started a weather journal today. Wonder how long I’ll stick with it.

I did one when I was in grade school. I think my mom still has it somewhere.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Deweydog said:

I did one when I was in grade school. I think my mom still has it somewhere.

I did the same... the Minnesota Weatherguide calendar that I got for Christmas each year from my parents had space dedicated to take daily notes.    Looks like I kept it up through about age 11 or 12.    Interestingly... my wife who seemingly has no interest in tracking weather also had a daily journal when she was a kid and we were looking through it last year and it was full of weather related notes in addition to the usual stuff about her friends and crushes on boys.   😃

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I did one when I was in grade school. I think my mom still has it somewhere.

I did the same! It was probably in the 5th or 6th grade up until HS. I only kept snow totals. Unfortunately the journal is long lost 😞 

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44 minutes ago, Phil said:

Dang SEA cools as fast as lightning. From 89 to 72 in a few hours is legit.

Meanwhile DCA high was 90 and it’s still plateaued at 80 as of midnight. 🤮 

This is quite a plummet as the models projected after sunset. SEA is down to 66. And this chart showed a sharp downward. 

chart.png

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I did the same... the Minnesota Weatherguide calendar that I got for Christmas each year from my parents had space dedicated to take daily notes.    Looks like I kept it up through about age 11 or 12.    Interestingly... my wife who seemingly has no interest in tracking weather also had a daily journal when she was a kid and we were looking through it last year and it was full of weather related notes in addition to the usual stuff about her friends and crushes on boys.   😃

I had stuff about crushes on boys in mine too!

I remember doing maps and such after I learned about isobars and such. I tried selling subscriptions for my maps but it didn’t go well.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I did one when I was in grade school. I think my mom still has it somewhere.

I missed out on that experience so I guess I’m making up for it now. Who knows what you can learn from those little details otherwise overlooked and forgotten.

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Pretty good looking GFS run tonight.  I'm sure I'll get attacked for saying that, but whatever.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I did the same! It was probably in the 5th or 6th grade up until HS. I only kept snow totals. Unfortunately the journal is long lost 😞 

Just snow totals?  Must have been a lot of blank days then.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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55 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

65 here…down 22 degrees in 3.5 hours now. 

I'm going to enjoy the cool weather the next few days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

image.gif

The more times you watch that the funnier it gets!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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  • Longtimer

I never really had a journal, I was too afraid I would write something embarrassing and my parents would find it. So instead I wrote a lot of short stories, which were about me, or my daydreams, but I could claim they were completely fictional if they were ever read by someone else. Thankful they were not and likely destroyed years ago. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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SEA is falling like a rock.  64 now.  The cooling has been much slower here with the temp still in the low 70s.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I never really had a journal, I was too afraid I would write something embarrassing and my parents would find it. So instead I wrote a lot of short stories, which were about me, or my daydreams, but I could claim they were completely fictional if they were ever read by someone else. Thankful they were not and likely destroyed years ago. 

My mom actually still has some of the stuff I wrote.  Shocking that stuff didn't get lost years ago.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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August 1967 is going to stand as the warmest on record in Seattle.  As of yesterday they were still running 1F below that month.  It would be pretty much impossible to beat it now with the next few cool days coming up.  That month must have seemed horrible back then when summers were so much cooler overall.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

August 1967 is going to stand as the warmest on record in Seattle.  As of yesterday they were still running 1F below that month.  It would be pretty much impossible to beat it now with the next few cool days coming up.  That month must have seemed horrible back then when summers were so much cooler overall.

I bet lots of people loved it... a true summery month in era of chilly summers.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I kept weather records for most of my junior high and high school years. One afternoon (after school) observation per day: cloud cover, wind speed and direction, temperature, relative humidity, rain and snowfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation types in the past 24 hours, precip type at time of observation.

Then at the end of each month I would use a sheet of graph paper to graphically summarize temperature and precip for the month.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Posted (edited)

This would end fire season west of the crest. 

gfs_apcpn_nwus_64.png

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

gfs_asnow_us_65.png

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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