August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[snow_wizard]

Epic GFS fails continue with today's 81 falling 9 short of last night's projection of 90.  Yikes!

In other news....I'm liking the way late this week is shaping up.

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Epic GFS fails continue with today's 81 falling 9 short of last night's projection of 90.  Yikes!

In other news....I'm liking the way late this week is shaping up.

Also you every time it’s right 

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

No joke… category 5

Ultra spectacular.  It was good here, but nothing like that.

[Meatyorologist]

Stratospheric cooling is a direct symptom of Tropospheric warming. This is observable and evident, given downward trends in Stratospheric temperature over the last several decades while the surface continues to warm.

It is caused when excess greenhouse gasses in the troposphere and tropopause trap thermal radiation at the surface, preventing it from escaping higher into the atmosphere (think, Stratosphere), and later eventually out into space. This tips the balance of thermal energy even more towards the Troposphere, thus lowering the temperature higher up.

If the Tonga eruption is already having that kind of profound effect on the Stratosphere not even a year after its eruption, then that could be a dead ringer for a notable temperature hike in the coming years back down on Earth.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Also you every time it’s right 

It's so awful that it's wrong more than it's anywhere near right.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Stratospheric cooling is a direct symptom of Tropospheric warming. This is observable and evident, given downward trends in Stratospheric temperature over the last several decades while the surface continues to warm.

It is caused when excess greenhouse gasses in the troposphere and tropopause trap thermal radiation at the surface, preventing it from escaping higher into the atmosphere (think, Stratosphere), and later eventually out into space. This tips the balance of thermal energy even more towards the Troposphere, thus lowering the temperature higher up.

If the Tonga eruption is already having that kind of profound effect on the Stratosphere not even a year after its eruption, then that could be a dead ringer for a notable temperature hike in the coming years back down on Earth.

Maybe.  There has to be notable amounts of gasses that have a cooling effect in that mix as well.  Nobody really knows how this is ultimately going to effect everything.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's so awful that it's wrong more than it's anywhere near right.

It’s actually closer more often than you’d think. Euro is a bit better usually. The conversation has been had many times but if there’s AM cloud cover the euros clearly better. If it’s sunny from the start the gfs is better. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s actually closer more often than you’d think. Euro is a bit better usually. The conversation has been had many times but if there’s AM cloud cover the euros clearly better. If it’s sunny from the start the gfs is better. 

I will admit I take a certain pleasure in bashing the GFS.  It's ok sometimes.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I will admit I take a certain pleasure in bashing the GFS.  It's ok sometimes.

The operational past days 3-5 in terms of medium and long range predictions can be pretty sh*t. Every now and then it can be the first to pick up on a pattern change though. 

[Cloud]

41 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I will admit I take a certain pleasure in bashing the GFS.  It's ok sometimes.

Will you do similar bashing when it fails its cold outputs this winter?

Like let say, a 41 degree cold rain, rather than a 32 snow? It's a 9F difference. 

In other news, Euro is following a similar progression in a significant cooldown for the weekend.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

67F and very pleasant out there.

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Stratospheric cooling is a direct symptom of Tropospheric warming. This is observable and evident, given downward trends in Stratospheric temperature over the last several decades while the surface continues to warm.

It is caused when excess greenhouse gasses in the troposphere and tropopause trap thermal radiation at the surface, preventing it from escaping higher into the atmosphere (think, Stratosphere), and later eventually out into space. This tips the balance of thermal energy even more towards the Troposphere, thus lowering the temperature higher up.

If the Tonga eruption is already having that kind of profound effect on the Stratosphere not even a year after its eruption, then that could be a dead ringer for a notable temperature hike in the coming years back down on Earth.

Should be a nice change of pace 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Another morning of absurdly warm lows for the Portland area.

Friday through the weekend looks delightful on the models. Hopefully we can hold it in place without it being encroached upon too much by its two bookending heatwaves.

[TT-SEA]

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Maybe.  There has to be notable amounts of gasses that have a cooling effect in that mix as well.  Nobody really knows how this is ultimately going to effect everything.

Apparently not in the case... mostly just a massive amount of water vapor in the stratosphere and that is a greenhouse gas.   

[TT-SEA]

6 hours ago, Cloud said:

Will you do similar bashing when it fails its cold outputs this winter?

Like let say, a 41 degree cold rain, rather than a 32 snow? It's a 9F difference. 

In other news, Euro is following a similar progression in a significant cooldown for the weekend.

I was thinking the same thing... we are about to enter the time of year when the GFS is celebrated for its extreme temps on the cold side and is no longer being bashed.  

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Should be a nice change of pace 

On the "bright" side, quicker warming in the short term may provide more climate stability in the decade or so following, as water dissipates out of the Stratosphere and the energy budget (associated w GHG's) evens up.

Would mean that during the 2025-2040 timeframe, the atmosphere's opacity (in the infared) would increase at a much slower rate than w/ anthropogenic emissions had there not been the Tonga eruption... But again, only because it was increased so heavily now.

[Meatyorologist]

Ultimately I suspect the Tonga eruption will have next to no effect on temperatures in the Troposphere in the coming decade. Maybe a 0.1-0.5C increase.

Of course there are no analogs for an eruption of Hunga Tonga's type, so it's impossible to say for certain.

[Meatyorologist]

Back at home... Low of 58F here. 60F at KSEA. It has not dipped below 60F at KSEA since the 16th.

[GobBluth]

7 hours ago, Cloud said:

Will you do similar bashing when it fails its cold outputs this winter?

Like let say, a 41 degree cold rain, rather than a 32 snow? It's a 9F difference. 

In other news, Euro is following a similar progression in a significant cooldown for the weekend.

Weird criticism. The GFS spitting out -10F in the middle of December is never taken as gospel.

Also, winter temperature progs are never that far off unless it's a situation of south winds taking over for east or a surprise sky clearing. More rare than a sunny summer day.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

On the "bright" side, quicker warming in the short term may provide more climate stability in the decade or so following, as water dissipates out of the Stratosphere and the energy budget (associated w GHG's) evens up.

Would mean that during the 2025-2040 timeframe, the atmosphere's opacity (in the infared) would increase at a much slower rate than w/ anthropogenic emissions had there not been the Tonga eruption... But again, only because it was increased so heavily now.

And of course we could have another major volcanic eruption in that time frame that releases massive amounts of SO2 like volcanoes normally do and which offsets the effects of Tonga.    

[MossMan]

55 currently. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful morning 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, I don’t think the Tonga eruption has anything to do with our “hot” summer. Actually I feel this is just a fairly typical summer in our current climate state. As has been discussed before, we even got off to a relatively late start this year, or at least not an early one. 

[Cloud]

55 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Weird criticism. The GFS spitting out -10F in the middle of December is never taken as gospel.

Also, winter temperature progs are never that far off unless it's a situation of south winds taking over for east or a surprise sky clearing. More rare than a sunny summer day.

Not weird at all. What’s weird is someone disappearing when things don’t go their way or fits the narrative. 
 

Point I was trying to make was fair is fair when looking at models analysis. He’s made a habit of bashing the GFS temps outputs all summer. Do that for the fall and winter months as well. 

[Phil]

10 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

See above.   Stratospheric cooling is associated with surface warming.

Well that depends on the scale/location and mechanism.

[Phil]

31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, I don’t think the Tonga eruption has anything to do with our “hot” summer. Actually I feel this is just a fairly typical summer in our current climate state. As has been discussed before, we even got off to a relatively late start this year, or at least not an early one. 

I do think the Tonga eruption might’ve played a role in the re-intensification of La Niña last spring. And La Niña tends to widen the Hadley Cell/4CH, all else being equal.

Question is whether the persistent wave breaking regime stemming from the intraseasonal event in May was augmented by dynamics associated with the eruption or whether those boundary conditions were already present. Because that is what actually drove the pattern.

[TacomaWx]

Got down to 59 breaks a 4 day +60 low streak. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

On the "bright" side, quicker warming in the short term may provide more climate stability in the decade or so following, as water dissipates out of the Stratosphere and the energy budget (associated w GHG's) evens up.

Would mean that during the 2025-2040 timeframe, the atmosphere's opacity (in the infared) would increase at a much slower rate than w/ anthropogenic emissions had there not been the Tonga eruption... But again, only because it was increased so heavily now.

I suspect any significant impacts would arise through structural changes to heat fluxes via deep tropical circulation/winds and convection/clouds (which is how ENSO affects global temperature). In fact that’s how the most significant climate change is carried out through the Pleistocene, including the ice age cycles which are largely driven by insolation gradients associated with obliquity.

[Omegaraptor]

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

To be fair, what makes the GFS generally horrendous in the warm season (it's tendency to vastly over-mix the atmospheric column) does not necessarily correlate to having the same level of bias during the cold season. Not sure if they can be compared like that.

And make no mistake - the GFS is pretty crappy when it comes to projecting temps for the warmer months, notwithstanding a few anecdotal coincidences where it happens to be correct. In fact, the Sioux Falls NWS said the following in an AFD back in July...

When you have the NWS themselves saying to toss the GFS temp output for an entire "time of year", I would say it's fair to give it some serious crap for being the bottom of the global model barrel.

Garbage Forecasting System

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

To be fair, what makes the GFS generally horrendous in the warm season (it's tendency to vastly over-mix the atmospheric column) does not necessarily correlate to having the same level of bias during the cold season. Not sure if they can be compared like that.

And make no mistake - the GFS is pretty crappy when it comes to projecting temps for the warmer months, notwithstanding a few anecdotal coincidences where it happens to be correct. In fact, the Sioux Falls NWS said the following in an AFD back in July...

When you have the NWS themselves saying to toss the GFS temp output for an entire "time of year", I would say it's fair to give it some serious crap for being the bottom of the global model bunch.

Thank you. I’ve never understood all the simping for the GFS. It’s a piece of trash second only to the CFS in its uselessness.

I almost never use the GFS for my region anymore. More often than not it actually seems to detract from the consensus of the ECMWF/EPS/CMC. I’ve been much more successful in the short/medium range without factoring in the GFS.

[TT-SEA]

45 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, I don’t think the Tonga eruption has anything to do with our “hot” summer. Actually I feel this is just a fairly typical summer in our current climate state. As has been discussed before, we even got off to a relatively late start this year, or at least not an early one. 

But this is a 3rd year Nina which has been strengthening during the warm season.   Of all summers... this one should have been cool.    But instead its been very warm.    Record setting warm in some aspects.

[Omegaraptor]

Soil in coastal WA now slightly drier than average. Pretty sure it was record or near record wet in June. 

[Phil]

9 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Stratospheric cooling is a direct symptom of Tropospheric warming. This is observable and evident, given downward trends in Stratospheric temperature over the last several decades while the surface continues to warm.

It is caused when excess greenhouse gasses in the troposphere and tropopause trap thermal radiation at the surface, preventing it from escaping higher into the atmosphere (think, Stratosphere), and later eventually out into space. This tips the balance of thermal energy even more towards the Troposphere, thus lowering the temperature higher up.

If the Tonga eruption is already having that kind of profound effect on the Stratosphere not even a year after its eruption, then that could be a dead ringer for a notable temperature hike in the coming years back down on Earth.

The stratospheric cooling occurs because “GHG” molecules augment radiative cooling at that altitude, which is above the altitude of the graybody emission temperature. The amount of outgoing LWIR doesn’t change in bulk above that.

Basically the H2O molecules are colliding with other molecules in the stratosphere, some of which (such as O2 and O3) absorb strongly in UV and higher frequencies, and since H2O has a broader emission spectra, upon collision/excitation it helps radiatively cool that airmass. It’s not that LWIR is prevented from reaching the stratosphere, it’s that the stratosphere becomes a more efficient emitter.

Obviously the equation changes once at the surface/lower troposphere since the surface cools primarily via LWIR emission, and an increasingly IR opaque atmosphere above effectively reduces its bulk emissivity (though it’s actually a bit more complicated than that, since the extra thermalization takes place in the mid/upper troposphere unless the surface is very cold).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Another balmy night at 61º here with clear skies, no wind, no offshore flow, and not a particularly warm airmass.

Impression of balmy nights region-wide lately borne out by ACIS map. I miss summer nights in the low 50s.

Me too. On the positive side these warmer nights have been partly due to higher dew points which has kept fire danger within reason so far. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Apparently not in the case... mostly just a massive amount of water vapor in the stratosphere and that is a greenhouse gas.   

One of the most potent ones (far more potent than CO₂) in fact. The rub is that H₂O vapor exists in equilibrium with liquid water and is part of a short-term cycle, so it functions as a dependent variable and not an independent one like CO₂. What happens is that more CO₂ causes a very modest amount of warming which causes more evaporation which increases water vapor which causes more warming (which then causes more evaporation, lather, rinse, repeat). Figuring out how that positive feedback plays out is not exactly easy and is a big part of why different climate models disagree about how much warming will happen as a result of anthropogenic CO₂.

[AlTahoe]

56 minutes ago, Phil said:

I do think the Tonga eruption might’ve played a role in the re-intensification of La Niña last spring. And La Niña tends to widen the Hadley Cell/4CH, all else being equal.

Question is whether the persistent wave breaking regime stemming from the intraseasonal event in May was augmented by dynamics associated with the eruption or whether those boundary conditions were already present. Because that is what actually drove the pattern.

just saw this today. 

 

 

[Winterdog]

58 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Got down to 59 breaks a 4 day +60 low streak. 

Same here, I hit 55 this morning.  I'll have to go back and check my records but I'm sure I've never had four lows of 60+ in a row in the past 30 years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

True about the dew points, although mine getting down to 42º last night didn't seem to help things.

The low temps have been mentioned on here, but it's a real thing. Low temps have warmed dramatically over the past couple of decades. Really in all seasons, though I would say February-May has seen a slower warming of lows. During the past decade our first freeze has moved on average from the end of September to mid-October. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dallas FW Airport has received 8.72" of rain in the past 24 hours. That's pretty wild. 

[TacomaWx]

8 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Same here, I hit 55 this morning.  I'll have to go back and check my records but I'm sure I've never had four lows of 60+ in a row in the past 30 years.

Our record for consecutive +60 lows was 5 until the big heatwave in June of last year…when we had 7 in a row. We then tied that number again this year in late July-early august.