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1/11 - 1/13 Great Lakes Clipper & LES Event


Tom

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As one storm departs, another pacific wave dives down out of Canada which originates way up near the Yukon Territories/AK that rides the NW Flow down into the lower 48.  This piece of energy is just beginning to enter the mainland of North America in the NE PAC waters.

Current guidance suggests a general 1-2" "refresher" of snow this coming Mon/Tue, with locally more in the state of MI where this Clipper may intensify and also ignite the Lake Effect machine.

 

Let's discuss.

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Not specific to this 1st clipper, but GFS wants to bury Michigan over the next 2-3 weeks:

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Not specific to this 1st clipper, but GFS wants to bury Michigan over the next 2-3 weeks:

 

attachicon.gif20160109 6z GFS 388hr Snowfall map.png

The pattern is just getting exciting.  Great Lakes are in the hot spot this season...you'd be blind not to see how the pattern has evolved since late October, right???

 

Anyhow, check out this vigorous looking short wave on the 12z GGEM!  Now that looks impressive!  I remember seeing wave's like these in the past that over perform creating some "squally" convective snow bands within the Clipper.  Once the winds turn down the lake, look out Jaster!

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The pattern is just getting exciting.  Great Lakes are in the hot spot this season...you'd be blind not to see how the pattern has evolved since late October, right???

 

Anyhow, check out this vigorous looking short wave on the 12z GGEM!  Now that looks impressive!  I remember seeing wave's like these in the past that over perform creating some "squally" convective snow bands within the Clipper.  Once the winds turn down the lake, look out Jaster!

That is intesnse.

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The pattern is just getting exciting.  Great Lakes are in the hot spot this season...you'd be blind not to see how the pattern has evolved since late October, right???

 

Anyhow, check out this vigorous looking short wave on the 12z GGEM!  Now that looks impressive!  I remember seeing wave's like these in the past that over perform creating some "squally" convective snow bands within the Clipper.  Once the winds turn down the lake, look out Jaster!

 

I'm not great at reading those vort maps, and what exactly they mean for mby. Obviously it looks like a stronger storm. Of course, so did today's when we saw it out in model land. I'm hopeful, but we'll see. Takes a really good clipper to do much for me as Marshall is ~80 miles inland. Takes just the right combo. Last Jan 8-9th was one of those situations, brought 4-7" iirc, 10-12" totals west of me in the usual favored locales. My high temps are only +/-20*F going through that period, so that helps. Gotta have cold for snow, as we see with this current storm.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I'm not great at reading those vort maps, and what exactly they mean for mby. Obviously it looks like a stronger storm. Of course, so did today's when we saw it out in model land. I'm hopeful, but we'll see. Takes a really good clipper to do much for me as Marshall is ~80 miles inland. Takes just the right combo. Last Jan 8-9th was one of those situations, brought 4-7" iirc, 10-12" totals west of me in the usual favored locales. My high temps are only +/-20*F going through that period, so that helps. Gotta have cold for snow, as we see with this current storm.

18z NAM really tries to dig this system into the lower lakes and once it passes on by, the lake is on fire!  Those lake bands creep all the way towards your neck of the woods.  Looks like you have the potential to see 6"+ from this one.

Deduct a couple inches and you can see the potential from this Clipper.

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Gfs has flurries west of.lake michigan

 

GFS doesn't pick up on weak Clipper's very well.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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18z NAM really tries to dig this system into the lower lakes and once it passes on by, the lake is on fire!  Those lake bands creep all the way towards your neck of the woods.  Looks like you have the potential to see 6"+ from this one.

Deduct a couple inches and you can see the potential from this Clipper.

 

 

NAM is definitely the stronger with the clipper.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160109/18Z/f60/crefptypemw.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016010918/nam4km_ref_us_14.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016010918/nam4km_ref_us_16.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016010918/nam4km_ref_us_18.png

 

The key that those NAM maps are showing is the WNW wind vector. That is the perfect (and only, really) wind direction that can deliver the goods to mby. Those look fantastic, now to have them verify. Would go a long ways in making up for this current disappointing system, I'll say that. The warmer lake waters should also help boost moisture - heard one model was indicating TSSN. Never had that with a clipper - so that'd be something if it actually happened ala KBUF.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Right now here at my house getting moderate wind blown snow and the temp is now down to 24° As a heads up this (today) could be the start of the winter snow fall guess tie breaker…………. #3: Greatest lake effect snowfall total for Grand Rapids, MI in January. (Will have to pay close attention to this one... events can last for a few days)  this event could last most if not all of the upcoming week. I will post then in several places so almost ever one will able to view it,

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Keep posting the LES amounts in here westMJim. I'll leave the thread pinned for awhile.

 

Clipper looks even moisture starved on the NAM. LOT is saying up to an inch and that will be pretty much it.

 

 

RGEM little more generous with snow, but further south.

 

 

GGEM a little farther north with a 2-3" event.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Keep posting the LES amounts in here westMJim. I'll leave the thread pinned for awhile.

 

Clipper looks even moisture starved on the NAM. LOT is saying up to an inch and that will be pretty much it.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160110/12Z/f60/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

RGEM little more generous with snow, but further south.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/rgem/20160110/12Z/f48/accqpfmw.png

 

GGEM a little farther north with a 2-3" event.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160110/12Z/f048/acckucherasnowmw.png

Is that over a half a foot for SEMI?! WOW, bring it on and lets keep adding to whats already on the ground until April.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Is that over a half a foot for SEMI?! WOW, bring it on and lets keep adding to whats already on the ground until April.

 

Gotta subtract this for today.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Gotta subtract this for today.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160110/12Z/f006/acckucherasnowmw.png

I'll take it! :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The 00z GFS finally caught on to the snows..esp here in N IL/S WI...

 

In a much bigger way too.

 

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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LOT issued a SWS for later tonight...I'd be happy with another 1.5"...

 

 

 

 
Special Weather StatementSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
931 PM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
110930-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...
WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...
OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...
WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...
FOWLER
931 PM CST SUN JAN 10 2016 /1031 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016/

...ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY DURING THE MONDAY AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR...

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...THE SNOW
WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE EFFICIENTLY ON AREA ROADS...LEADING TO
VERY SLICK CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. THIS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH HOUR. THEREFORE
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO PLAN FOR EXTRA TRAVEL TIMES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.
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I had just under a half inch of new snow here since 7 PM last night and there is now 3.5” on the ground. Right now there is light snow falling with very small flake size.  Here is GRR’s take on the potential for the snow tonight.   

http://www.weather.gov/grr/LakeEffectSnowJan11-12

I live about 5 miles west of US 131

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hope it gets a bit more exciting than that

 

It will. The main show is coming the evening.

 

Multiply by 2 or even 2.5.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Stacking up nicely. Is there a second wave coming through later?

 

I think the radar is going to fill in again as that light snow moves across the state from out by the Mississippi River.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I am under a WWA from tonight until tomorrow evening for 3-5inches. Not too shabby at all. Add that on top of the 3" that I received from yesterday's system and that puts my snowfall tally this week so far 6"+.  :D

 

BTW...Heavy snowsqualls for later on Tuesday with additional accumulations. Hello January.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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