Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 As one storm departs, another pacific wave dives down out of Canada which originates way up near the Yukon Territories/AK that rides the NW Flow down into the lower 48. This piece of energy is just beginning to enter the mainland of North America in the NE PAC waters.Current guidance suggests a general 1-2" "refresher" of snow this coming Mon/Tue, with locally more in the state of MI where this Clipper may intensify and also ignite the Lake Effect machine. Let's discuss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 12z NAM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Not specific to this 1st clipper, but GFS wants to bury Michigan over the next 2-3 weeks: Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Not specific to this 1st clipper, but GFS wants to bury Michigan over the next 2-3 weeks: 20160109 6z GFS 388hr Snowfall map.pngThe pattern is just getting exciting. Great Lakes are in the hot spot this season...you'd be blind not to see how the pattern has evolved since late October, right??? Anyhow, check out this vigorous looking short wave on the 12z GGEM! Now that looks impressive! I remember seeing wave's like these in the past that over perform creating some "squally" convective snow bands within the Clipper. Once the winds turn down the lake, look out Jaster! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 The pattern is just getting exciting. Great Lakes are in the hot spot this season...you'd be blind not to see how the pattern has evolved since late October, right??? Anyhow, check out this vigorous looking short wave on the 12z GGEM! Now that looks impressive! I remember seeing wave's like these in the past that over perform creating some "squally" convective snow bands within the Clipper. Once the winds turn down the lake, look out Jaster!That is intesnse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Prolly only get a glancing blow over here in IA but the pattern is definitley active for most of us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 The pattern is just getting exciting. Great Lakes are in the hot spot this season...you'd be blind not to see how the pattern has evolved since late October, right??? Anyhow, check out this vigorous looking short wave on the 12z GGEM! Now that looks impressive! I remember seeing wave's like these in the past that over perform creating some "squally" convective snow bands within the Clipper. Once the winds turn down the lake, look out Jaster! I'm not great at reading those vort maps, and what exactly they mean for mby. Obviously it looks like a stronger storm. Of course, so did today's when we saw it out in model land. I'm hopeful, but we'll see. Takes a really good clipper to do much for me as Marshall is ~80 miles inland. Takes just the right combo. Last Jan 8-9th was one of those situations, brought 4-7" iirc, 10-12" totals west of me in the usual favored locales. My high temps are only +/-20*F going through that period, so that helps. Gotta have cold for snow, as we see with this current storm. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 I'm not great at reading those vort maps, and what exactly they mean for mby. Obviously it looks like a stronger storm. Of course, so did today's when we saw it out in model land. I'm hopeful, but we'll see. Takes a really good clipper to do much for me as Marshall is ~80 miles inland. Takes just the right combo. Last Jan 8-9th was one of those situations, brought 4-7" iirc, 10-12" totals west of me in the usual favored locales. My high temps are only +/-20*F going through that period, so that helps. Gotta have cold for snow, as we see with this current storm.18z NAM really tries to dig this system into the lower lakes and once it passes on by, the lake is on fire! Those lake bands creep all the way towards your neck of the woods. Looks like you have the potential to see 6"+ from this one.Deduct a couple inches and you can see the potential from this Clipper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 NAM is definitely the stronger with the clipper. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 Gfs has flurries west of.lake michigan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 Gfs has flurries west of.lake michigan GFS doesn't pick up on weak Clipper's very well. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 18z NAM really tries to dig this system into the lower lakes and once it passes on by, the lake is on fire! Those lake bands creep all the way towards your neck of the woods. Looks like you have the potential to see 6"+ from this one.Deduct a couple inches and you can see the potential from this Clipper. NAM is definitely the stronger with the clipper. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160109/18Z/f60/crefptypemw.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016010918/nam4km_ref_us_14.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016010918/nam4km_ref_us_16.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016010918/nam4km_ref_us_18.png The key that those NAM maps are showing is the WNW wind vector. That is the perfect (and only, really) wind direction that can deliver the goods to mby. Those look fantastic, now to have them verify. Would go a long ways in making up for this current disappointing system, I'll say that. The warmer lake waters should also help boost moisture - heard one model was indicating TSSN. Never had that with a clipper - so that'd be something if it actually happened ala KBUF. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 Right now here at my house getting moderate wind blown snow and the temp is now down to 24° As a heads up this (today) could be the start of the winter snow fall guess tie breaker…………. #3: Greatest lake effect snowfall total for Grand Rapids, MI in January. (Will have to pay close attention to this one... events can last for a few days) this event could last most if not all of the upcoming week. I will post then in several places so almost ever one will able to view it, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 Keep posting the LES amounts in here westMJim. I'll leave the thread pinned for awhile. Clipper looks even moisture starved on the NAM. LOT is saying up to an inch and that will be pretty much it. RGEM little more generous with snow, but further south. GGEM a little farther north with a 2-3" event. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 Keep posting the LES amounts in here westMJim. I'll leave the thread pinned for awhile. Clipper looks even moisture starved on the NAM. LOT is saying up to an inch and that will be pretty much it. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160110/12Z/f60/acckucherasnowmw.png RGEM little more generous with snow, but further south. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/rgem/20160110/12Z/f48/accqpfmw.png GGEM a little farther north with a 2-3" event. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160110/12Z/f048/acckucherasnowmw.pngIs that over a half a foot for SEMI?! WOW, bring it on and lets keep adding to whats already on the ground until April. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 Is that over a half a foot for SEMI?! WOW, bring it on and lets keep adding to whats already on the ground until April. Gotta subtract this for today. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 Gotta subtract this for today. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160110/12Z/f006/acckucherasnowmw.pngI'll take it! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 RPM/NAM painting about 1.5" for ORD...its going to be hit or miss wherever these heavier bursts come through the area. Not a bad refresher though. Should be nice and fluffy powder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 I'll take another inch. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 The 00z GFS finally caught on to the snows..esp here in N IL/S WI... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 The 00z GFS finally caught on to the snows..esp here in N IL/S WI... In a much bigger way too. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 LOT issued a SWS for later tonight...I'd be happy with another 1.5"... Special Weather StatementSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL931 PM CST SUN JAN 10 2016ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-110930-WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...FOWLER931 PM CST SUN JAN 10 2016 /1031 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016/...ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY DURING THE MONDAY AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...ANDCONTINUE MONDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...THE SNOWWILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE EFFICIENTLY ON AREA ROADS...LEADING TOVERY SLICK CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. THIS WILL LIKELYIMPACT THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH HOUR. THEREFOREMOTORISTS ARE URGED TO PLAN FOR EXTRA TRAVEL TIMES ACROSS THE AREAMONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLEMONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH POSSIBLE MONDAYNIGHT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 00z Euro came in a tad wetter...similar to the GFS...NE IL/SE WI may fluff that snow up closer to 2" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 LOT was mentioning 1-3" in their AFD at 9pm. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 I had just under a half inch of new snow here since 7 PM last night and there is now 3.5” on the ground. Right now there is light snow falling with very small flake size. Here is GRR’s take on the potential for the snow tonight. http://www.weather.gov/grr/LakeEffectSnowJan11-12I live about 5 miles west of US 131 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Snow already breaking out across N IL. Clouded pretty quickly here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 getting a heavy snow shower here now visibility is down to 1/4 mile nice big flakes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLIZZARD09 Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 just flurries here so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Here is GRR updated take on to nights potential lake effect event.http://www.weather.gov/grr/January11-12 snow fall potential http://www.weather.gov/grr/January11-12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 -SN here for the last hour. Just now got to 0.1". Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLIZZARD09 Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Geos, on 11 Jan 2016 - 3:05 PM, said:-SN here for the last hour. Just now got to 0.1".hope it gets a bit more exciting than that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 hope it gets a bit more exciting than that It will. The main show is coming the evening. Multiply by 2 or even 2.5. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Radar is looking better in north central IL. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Still coming down good out west here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Almost an inch I would say now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Stacking up nicely. Is there a second wave coming through later? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Stacking up nicely. Is there a second wave coming through later? I think the radar is going to fill in again as that light snow moves across the state from out by the Mississippi River. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 I am under a WWA from tonight until tomorrow evening for 3-5inches. Not too shabby at all. Add that on top of the 3" that I received from yesterday's system and that puts my snowfall tally this week so far 6"+. BTW...Heavy snowsqualls for later on Tuesday with additional accumulations. Hello January. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Up to 1.1" so far. By the looks of it the heaviest will be north and south of here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 1.2" here. High ratios, cold weather, it was like being in a mountain town 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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