Jump to content
The Weather Forums

Jan 21-23 Northeast/Mid-Atl Winter Storm


Recommended Posts

Wish we got storms like this around here. Grand snow total today was a whopping 0.7 inches.

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the modeling holds for another 24hrs, I'll feel a lot more comfortable.

 

Currently, assuming everything holds, I'd anticipate approximately 15-20" here, with 8-12" around iFred's area. I'm not ready to get super bullish yet, and presume the end-result will be a somewhat smaller version of the February 5-6, 2010 "snowmaggeddon" storm, in terms of snowfall distribution/amounts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the mid-Atlantic is in for a storm of the decade this Friday!

 

Models have been really consistent on giving DC and N VA at least 28".

 

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the modeling holds for another 24hrs, I'll feel a lot more comfortable.

 

Currently, assuming everything holds, I'd anticipate approximately 15-20" here, with 8-12" around iFred's area. I'm not ready to get super bullish yet, and presume the end-result will be a somewhat smaller version of the February 5-6, 2010 "snowmaggeddon" storm, in terms of snowfall distribution/amounts.

I got to speak to a met today who works for a firm in Philly. The recent misses by the Euro and some of the recent GFS struggles are giving the local NOAA office a headache. He went for 12+ for Philly, but noted that we should expect a last minute northerly trend if model bias is active, with the precip core from DC to outside of Trenton. This pending the 06z GFS and the Hi Res Friday morning.

 

In any case, anything more that 12 inches in 24 hours will exceed anything I've experienced locally in Seattle.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It should be fun to watch on the news.

 

Yeah no kidding.

 

GGEM has some insane numbers. I hope Phil makes a run to the store!  :D

 

  • Like 1

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the modeling holds for another 24hrs, I'll feel a lot more comfortable.

 

Currently, assuming everything holds, I'd anticipate approximately 15-20" here, with 8-12" around iFred's area. I'm not ready to get super bullish yet, and presume the end-result will be a somewhat smaller version of the February 5-6, 2010 "snowmaggeddon" storm, in terms of snowfall distribution/amounts.

 

Looks like Snowmaggeddon for you on the GGEM especially. Almost 40"!

  • Like 1

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Praying to Jeefus for a Philly based move.

 

The word on the street is that the GFS is overplaying warm air influence with its sleetpocolypse and the Euro might have some issues after it veered to the east in one frame. Kind of exciting to see a storm like this as there is a potential to hit three or more metros with 16+ inches of snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Blizzard Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1037 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016

 

...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT

INTO SUNDAY...

 

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-

220445-

/O.CAN.KPHI.WS.A.0001.160123T0000Z-160124T1500Z/

/O.NEW.KPHI.BZ.A.0001.160123T0000Z-160124T1500Z/

NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-

GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-

EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...

CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...

CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...

WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...

MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN

1037 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016

 

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY

MORNING...

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD

WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY

MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

 

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWESTERN NEW

JERSEY...NORTHERN DELAWARE...AND MARYLAND`S UPPER EASTERN SHORE.

 

* HAZARD TYPES...POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY

SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.

 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...12 TO 18 INCHES POSSIBLE.

 

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO

NORTH FRIDAY EVENING... PRIMARILY AFTER THE EVENING COMMUTE...

THEN CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE

STRONGEST WINDS AND GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS

WILL BE ON SATURDAY.

 

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

 

* VISIBILITIES...ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

 

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

 

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS

COULD PRODUCE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL

CONDITIONS. SNOW MAY BE DRY AND FLUFFY AT THE START... BUT WILL

BECOME WETTER AND HEAVIER AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. SHOVELING MAY BE

PROBLEMATIC FOR THOSE WITH PHYSICAL AILMENTS. SNOW MAY CLING TO

WIRES AND TREES WHICH COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES. ROADS

WILL BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO INCREASING SNOW ACCUMULATION

DURING THE EVENT.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR

BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.

THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY

DANGEROUS.

 

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO EXPERIMENTAL

PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST EVENT ARE

AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER

 

 

&&

 

$

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let's do this!

 

...Blizzard Warning in effect from 3 PM Friday to 6 AM EST Sunday...

 

The National Weather Service in Baltimore md/washington has issued a Blizzard Warning...Which is in effect from 3 PM Friday to 6 AM EST Sunday. The blizzard watch is no longer in effect.

 

* Hazard types...Heavy Snow and wind with blowing and Drifting Snow Friday afternoon through Saturday night. Sleet May Mix with the Snow Friday night into Saturday morning East of interstate 95 before changing Back to all Snow by Saturday afternoon.

 

* Accumulations...Snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches in The Eastern suburbs of Washington dc...And 24 to 30 inches in the Western suburbs. The city of Washington dc is expected to receive around 24 inches.

 

* Timing...Heavy Snow will develop late Friday afternoon and continue through Saturday night. Conditions are expected to deteriorate Friday afternoon with the heaviest Snow...Strongest winds...And potential Life threatening conditions expected Friday night through Saturday.

 

* Impacts...Heavy Snow and blowing Snow will cause dangerous conditions and will be a threat to Life and property. Travel is expected to be severely limited if not impossible during the Height of the storm Friday night and Saturday. Visibility will be reduced to near Zero at times in whiteout conditions.

 

* Winds...Northeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph...Becoming North Saturday.

 

* Temperatures...Mid to upper 20s.

 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

 

A Blizzard Warning Means severe Winter Weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing Snow with Strong winds and Poor visibilities are Likely. This will Lead to whiteout conditions...Making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel...Have a Winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded...Stay with your vehicle. Prepare for the possibility of Power outages during snowy and cold conditions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Those are some crazy numbers. NY looks to get in on the big numbers now. But I would be sweating it there until the last minute. Close to the cut off.

Having fun tracking this even though it is 600 + miles away.

 

  • Like 1

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z NAM. It really loads on the total in the greater NY area now.

 

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS is kind to SE PA, with 2' totals.

 

I've been irrationally worried about he northern extent of the precip shield or mixing.

 

Sounds like you're in NY or nearby then. 

I know sometimes out this way in big storms sleet tries to work in.

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That is a seriously tough call for NYC and Long Island. If the low decides to hook even a little, that area is really going to get clocked like the NAM shows.

 

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sounds like you're in NY or nearby then.

I know sometimes out this way in big storms sleet tries to work in.

I'm in Philly for this one. The GFS had QPF at 2-ish inches and snow maps at 2 ft. The recent runs are supporting the northerly trend without compromising temps. I'm really curious how the Euro resolves this as the last solution moved forwards what the GFS modeled. I'm feeling confident for 16+ totals with the northern limit in the Lehigh Valley.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I assume the Euro will bump back north a bit tonight, though I admit the southward tick in the 12z EPS mean bothered me a bit. Even a mere 30-40 mile bump north tonight would be enough to relax me substantially.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The biggest shift with the NAM is now Boston went from a dusting to 15". I see there's not winter weather headlines in CT currently and if trends continue they're going to have to issue them tonight.

That bulls eye location just NW of DC has been really consistent in the last 36 hours.

 

Big difference in central PA now with State College at 23".

 

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40" amounts now showing up within the beltway.

 

 

GGEM a little less.

 

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm enjoying your snow from afar! Have fun with this and stay safe.

 

Post lots of photos during and after so we can all experience 2nd hand.

 

You wanted snow......you got it!

  • Like 3

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Instant stickage, everything turning white.

Im so envious.

 

All we have is sun, cold, and monster winds.

 

Send me some snow boys !

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is it any wonder why Texas is getting the wind it's getting and the jet is driving this east coast storm like a freight train.

The image speaks for itself.

 

image.gif

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Getting some light lake effect snow here from the monster counterclockwise circulation from this storm.

 

HRRR - next 15 hours only.

 

 

I couldn't believe it earlier right before the snow started in DC, CNN was showing a thousand or so tourists just strolling around the Mall like they didn't have a care in the world. lol

  • Like 1

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

About 3" here so far, snowing moderately. The wind is starting to pick up too, though the real deal (heavier rates + winds) won't arrive for another ~6 hours down here, and will take around 12 hours to arrive up in Philadelphia.

 

image.jpeg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice pic Phil!

 

Looks intense for tonight. Hope the power stays on for you.

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice pic Phil!

 

Looks intense for tonight. Hope the power stays on for you.

Thank you, yeah this is WAA-snow, so basically an appetizer of sorts until the heavier rates/winds arrive late tonight.

 

Here's a pic of the snowfall under the floodlights:

 

image.jpeg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, this run of the HRRR is the best one yet.

 

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Phil or whoever lives locally. Has a blizzard like this ever taken place during a strong/super el Niño winter?

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Phil or whoever lives locally. Has a blizzard like this ever taken place during a strong/super el Niño winter?

Yes, 2009-10 being the most recent occurance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It will be fun to see how your deck changes over the next 18 hrs.

 

The snowfall in DC is impressive at this hour. May be the only time DC looks serene and beautiful.

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Watching the coverage on TWC and CNN, seeing the roads almost completely empty of a Friday evening is really eerie. But that's good that people heeded the warning from officials.

  • Like 1

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Between 4-5" now and adding up at ~1"hr here. I'm surprised at the wind gusts, hitting 25-30mph already..the wind-field doesn't go nuts for another 4-6hrs or so.

 

image.jpegimage.jpeg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The real stuff is now approaching from VA/NC. Should get here by midnight or so, bringing 40-50mph wind gusts (60-70mph towards the Chesapeake Bay).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...