WeatherCrossing Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 There is a real threat to the East Coast for this upcoming storm. The GFS has been fairly consistent with the general precipitation totals. Additionally, the 13km GFS output (18Z) shows 40+ mph 10 m winds well inland in New Jersey. 50+ mph along the coast! 1 Quote Premium graphics. Advanced display. WeatherCrossing.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 20, 2016 Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wish we got storms like this around here. Grand snow total today was a whopping 0.7 inches. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 20, 2016 Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 If the modeling holds for another 24hrs, I'll feel a lot more comfortable. Currently, assuming everything holds, I'd anticipate approximately 15-20" here, with 8-12" around iFred's area. I'm not ready to get super bullish yet, and presume the end-result will be a somewhat smaller version of the February 5-6, 2010 "snowmaggeddon" storm, in terms of snowfall distribution/amounts. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted January 20, 2016 Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 It will be interesting if the data holds tonight or if we see a trend north a bit or south a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2016 Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks like the mid-Atlantic is in for a storm of the decade this Friday! Models have been really consistent on giving DC and N VA at least 28". Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 It should be fun to watch on the news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 It should be fun to watch on the news. Yeah no kidding. GGEM has some insane numbers. I hope Phil makes a run to the store! 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 If the modeling holds for another 24hrs, I'll feel a lot more comfortable. Currently, assuming everything holds, I'd anticipate approximately 15-20" here, with 8-12" around iFred's area. I'm not ready to get super bullish yet, and presume the end-result will be a somewhat smaller version of the February 5-6, 2010 "snowmaggeddon" storm, in terms of snowfall distribution/amounts. Looks like Snowmaggeddon for you on the GGEM especially. Almost 40"! 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yeah no doubt about it the data has firmly held on amazing how consistent this has been on the data over all with only small detail changes pure data run cycles ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hoping for a little tick north today. I don't want that northern edge anywhere near me. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Let's do this! ...Blizzard Warning in effect from 3 PM Friday to 6 AM EST Sunday... The National Weather Service in Baltimore md/washington has issued a Blizzard Warning...Which is in effect from 3 PM Friday to 6 AM EST Sunday. The blizzard watch is no longer in effect. * Hazard types...Heavy Snow and wind with blowing and Drifting Snow Friday afternoon through Saturday night. Sleet May Mix with the Snow Friday night into Saturday morning East of interstate 95 before changing Back to all Snow by Saturday afternoon. * Accumulations...Snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches in The Eastern suburbs of Washington dc...And 24 to 30 inches in the Western suburbs. The city of Washington dc is expected to receive around 24 inches. * Timing...Heavy Snow will develop late Friday afternoon and continue through Saturday night. Conditions are expected to deteriorate Friday afternoon with the heaviest Snow...Strongest winds...And potential Life threatening conditions expected Friday night through Saturday. * Impacts...Heavy Snow and blowing Snow will cause dangerous conditions and will be a threat to Life and property. Travel is expected to be severely limited if not impossible during the Height of the storm Friday night and Saturday. Visibility will be reduced to near Zero at times in whiteout conditions. * Winds...Northeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph...Becoming North Saturday. * Temperatures...Mid to upper 20s. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Blizzard Warning Means severe Winter Weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing Snow with Strong winds and Poor visibilities are Likely. This will Lead to whiteout conditions...Making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel...Have a Winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded...Stay with your vehicle. Prepare for the possibility of Power outages during snowy and cold conditions. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Those are some crazy numbers. NY looks to get in on the big numbers now. But I would be sweating it there until the last minute. Close to the cut off.Having fun tracking this even though it is 600 + miles away. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z NAM. It really loads on the total in the greater NY area now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 The GFS is kind to SE PA, with 2' totals. I've been irrationally worried about he northern extent of the precip shield or mixing.Hope you get nuked with snow!! Will be fun to watch it unfold. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 The GFS is kind to SE PA, with 2' totals. I've been irrationally worried about he northern extent of the precip shield or mixing. Sounds like you're in NY or nearby then. I know sometimes out this way in big storms sleet tries to work in. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 That is a seriously tough call for NYC and Long Island. If the low decides to hook even a little, that area is really going to get clocked like the NAM shows. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 I assume the Euro will bump back north a bit tonight, though I admit the southward tick in the 12z EPS mean bothered me a bit. Even a mere 30-40 mile bump north tonight would be enough to relax me substantially. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 The biggest shift with the NAM is now Boston went from a dusting to 15". I see there's not winter weather headlines in CT currently and if trends continue they're going to have to issue them tonight.That bulls eye location just NW of DC has been really consistent in the last 36 hours. Big difference in central PA now with State College at 23". Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 40" amounts now showing up within the beltway. GGEM a little less. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 Virginia looks to be in on the bull's eye for this storm. However, most places only have a Winter Storm Warning rather than a Blizzard Warning. It will be interesting to see if places get as much as the models are forecasting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 It getting to be that time when we start now casting from here on out going to be an wild 36 or so hours for sure.hope everyone enjoys the ride takes movies and pictures of this storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 3FT!...............Yea, but its going to melt..... eventually. Like I said a few days ago, this is going to be better than anything you would ever experience in Seattle. ENJOY! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 Snow has begun here, started up quickly after 30 minutes of pixie dust. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 Instant stickage, everything turning white. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm enjoying your snow from afar! Have fun with this and stay safe. Post lots of photos during and after so we can all experience 2nd hand. You wanted snow......you got it! 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 Instant stickage, everything turning white.Im so envious. All we have is sun, cold, and monster winds. Send me some snow boys ! 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 Is it any wonder why Texas is getting the wind it's getting and the jet is driving this east coast storm like a freight train. The image speaks for itself. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 Getting some light lake effect snow here from the monster counterclockwise circulation from this storm. HRRR - next 15 hours only. I couldn't believe it earlier right before the snow started in DC, CNN was showing a thousand or so tourists just strolling around the Mall like they didn't have a care in the world. lol Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 About 3" here so far, snowing moderately. The wind is starting to pick up too, though the real deal (heavier rates + winds) won't arrive for another ~6 hours down here, and will take around 12 hours to arrive up in Philadelphia. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nice pic Phil! Looks intense for tonight. Hope the power stays on for you. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nice pic Phil! Looks intense for tonight. Hope the power stays on for you.Thank you, yeah this is WAA-snow, so basically an appetizer of sorts until the heavier rates/winds arrive late tonight. Here's a pic of the snowfall under the floodlights: 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wow, this run of the HRRR is the best one yet. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2016 Report Share Posted January 22, 2016 Phil or whoever lives locally. Has a blizzard like this ever taken place during a strong/super el Niño winter? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Phil or whoever lives locally. Has a blizzard like this ever taken place during a strong/super el Niño winter?Yes, 2009-10 being the most recent occurance. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 It will be fun to see how your deck changes over the next 18 hrs. The snowfall in DC is impressive at this hour. May be the only time DC looks serene and beautiful. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Watching the coverage on TWC and CNN, seeing the roads almost completely empty of a Friday evening is really eerie. But that's good that people heeded the warning from officials. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Between 4-5" now and adding up at ~1"hr here. I'm surprised at the wind gusts, hitting 25-30mph already..the wind-field doesn't go nuts for another 4-6hrs or so. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 It would be nice to see the Patriots game snowed out, but as long as Shady Brady and Bill Belicheat lose, that is all that really matters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Starting to go nuts out there. Approaching 6" of accumulation, winds gusting into the 30-35mph range. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 The real stuff is now approaching from VA/NC. Should get here by midnight or so, bringing 40-50mph wind gusts (60-70mph towards the Chesapeake Bay). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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