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Jan 21-23 Northeast/Mid-Atl Winter Storm


WeatherCrossing

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If the modeling holds for another 24hrs, I'll feel a lot more comfortable.

 

Currently, assuming everything holds, I'd anticipate approximately 15-20" here, with 8-12" around iFred's area. I'm not ready to get super bullish yet, and presume the end-result will be a somewhat smaller version of the February 5-6, 2010 "snowmaggeddon" storm, in terms of snowfall distribution/amounts.

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Looks like the mid-Atlantic is in for a storm of the decade this Friday!

 

Models have been really consistent on giving DC and N VA at least 28".

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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It should be fun to watch on the news.

 

Yeah no kidding.

 

GGEM has some insane numbers. I hope Phil makes a run to the store!  :D

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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If the modeling holds for another 24hrs, I'll feel a lot more comfortable.

 

Currently, assuming everything holds, I'd anticipate approximately 15-20" here, with 8-12" around iFred's area. I'm not ready to get super bullish yet, and presume the end-result will be a somewhat smaller version of the February 5-6, 2010 "snowmaggeddon" storm, in terms of snowfall distribution/amounts.

 

Looks like Snowmaggeddon for you on the GGEM especially. Almost 40"!

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Let's do this!

 

...Blizzard Warning in effect from 3 PM Friday to 6 AM EST Sunday...

 

The National Weather Service in Baltimore md/washington has issued a Blizzard Warning...Which is in effect from 3 PM Friday to 6 AM EST Sunday. The blizzard watch is no longer in effect.

 

* Hazard types...Heavy Snow and wind with blowing and Drifting Snow Friday afternoon through Saturday night. Sleet May Mix with the Snow Friday night into Saturday morning East of interstate 95 before changing Back to all Snow by Saturday afternoon.

 

* Accumulations...Snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches in The Eastern suburbs of Washington dc...And 24 to 30 inches in the Western suburbs. The city of Washington dc is expected to receive around 24 inches.

 

* Timing...Heavy Snow will develop late Friday afternoon and continue through Saturday night. Conditions are expected to deteriorate Friday afternoon with the heaviest Snow...Strongest winds...And potential Life threatening conditions expected Friday night through Saturday.

 

* Impacts...Heavy Snow and blowing Snow will cause dangerous conditions and will be a threat to Life and property. Travel is expected to be severely limited if not impossible during the Height of the storm Friday night and Saturday. Visibility will be reduced to near Zero at times in whiteout conditions.

 

* Winds...Northeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph...Becoming North Saturday.

 

* Temperatures...Mid to upper 20s.

 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

 

A Blizzard Warning Means severe Winter Weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing Snow with Strong winds and Poor visibilities are Likely. This will Lead to whiteout conditions...Making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel...Have a Winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded...Stay with your vehicle. Prepare for the possibility of Power outages during snowy and cold conditions.

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Those are some crazy numbers. NY looks to get in on the big numbers now. But I would be sweating it there until the last minute. Close to the cut off.

Having fun tracking this even though it is 600 + miles away.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The GFS is kind to SE PA, with 2' totals.

 

I've been irrationally worried about he northern extent of the precip shield or mixing.

Hope you get nuked with snow!! Will be fun to watch it unfold.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The GFS is kind to SE PA, with 2' totals.

 

I've been irrationally worried about he northern extent of the precip shield or mixing.

 

Sounds like you're in NY or nearby then. 

I know sometimes out this way in big storms sleet tries to work in.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That is a seriously tough call for NYC and Long Island. If the low decides to hook even a little, that area is really going to get clocked like the NAM shows.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I assume the Euro will bump back north a bit tonight, though I admit the southward tick in the 12z EPS mean bothered me a bit. Even a mere 30-40 mile bump north tonight would be enough to relax me substantially.

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The biggest shift with the NAM is now Boston went from a dusting to 15". I see there's not winter weather headlines in CT currently and if trends continue they're going to have to issue them tonight.

That bulls eye location just NW of DC has been really consistent in the last 36 hours.

 

Big difference in central PA now with State College at 23".

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I'm enjoying your snow from afar! Have fun with this and stay safe.

 

Post lots of photos during and after so we can all experience 2nd hand.

 

You wanted snow......you got it!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Instant stickage, everything turning white.

Im so envious.

 

All we have is sun, cold, and monster winds.

 

Send me some snow boys !

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Is it any wonder why Texas is getting the wind it's getting and the jet is driving this east coast storm like a freight train.

The image speaks for itself.

 

image.gif

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Getting some light lake effect snow here from the monster counterclockwise circulation from this storm.

 

HRRR - next 15 hours only.

 

 

I couldn't believe it earlier right before the snow started in DC, CNN was showing a thousand or so tourists just strolling around the Mall like they didn't have a care in the world. lol

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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About 3" here so far, snowing moderately. The wind is starting to pick up too, though the real deal (heavier rates + winds) won't arrive for another ~6 hours down here, and will take around 12 hours to arrive up in Philadelphia.

 

image.jpeg

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Nice pic Phil!

 

Looks intense for tonight. Hope the power stays on for you.

Thank you, yeah this is WAA-snow, so basically an appetizer of sorts until the heavier rates/winds arrive late tonight.

 

Here's a pic of the snowfall under the floodlights:

 

image.jpeg

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Phil or whoever lives locally. Has a blizzard like this ever taken place during a strong/super el Niño winter?

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Phil or whoever lives locally. Has a blizzard like this ever taken place during a strong/super el Niño winter?

Yes, 2009-10 being the most recent occurance.

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It will be fun to see how your deck changes over the next 18 hrs.

 

The snowfall in DC is impressive at this hour. May be the only time DC looks serene and beautiful.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Watching the coverage on TWC and CNN, seeing the roads almost completely empty of a Friday evening is really eerie. But that's good that people heeded the warning from officials.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Between 4-5" now and adding up at ~1"hr here. I'm surprised at the wind gusts, hitting 25-30mph already..the wind-field doesn't go nuts for another 4-6hrs or so.

 

image.jpegimage.jpeg

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Starting to go nuts out there. Approaching 6" of accumulation, winds gusting into the 30-35mph range.

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The real stuff is now approaching from VA/NC. Should get here by midnight or so, bringing 40-50mph wind gusts (60-70mph towards the Chesapeake Bay).

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