When will Southern California get its next decent storm?

[Anti Marine Layer]

El Nino is not performing in Southern California for the time being. Persistent ridging to our southwest is redirecting the storm track to the north. It's not as big and strong as the infamous Really Resilient Ridge of the last few years, but it's strong enough to keep the rain away.
 
How long until Southern California gets a storm with at least 0.50 inches for L.A. and San Diego?

[Anti Marine Layer]

I have changed the title to say decent storm. 0.50" for L.A. and San Diego would be bigger than most storms we have had so far this winter.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like a strong surface high is going to set up over the NE Pacific again late in the month.  I would say maybe mid February for you you guys to have a good window again.

[Guest happ]

Based on past El Ninos, I think we will easily receive well over 0.50 in early February.

[halofromajo]

Based on past El Ninos, I think we will easily receive well over 0.50 in early February.

I was going to say the exact same thing.  Feb always seems to be the time when the fire hose get turned on.

[Guest happ]

The last day of the month, Sunday, looks good for over 0.50 in LA

[Anti Marine Layer]

I don't know if Tujunga counts as "L.A. and San Diego," but I've just officially achieved 0.50" accumulation for the day.  That makes the winner of the poll... Nobody!  No one voted for "Before February 1."  Kind of funny, since the first half of February (which had the most votes) looks like it could be completely dry.

I was thinking of a storm where both the L.A. Airport (LAX) and San Diego Airport (Lindbergh Field) would both have over 0.50", but for this storm neither of them came anywhere close.

[Guest happ]

I guess the next question is when will it rain again?

 

1[ Next week? 

2] Next month?

[Dan the Weatherman]

I guess the next question is when will it rain again?

 

1[ Next week? 

2] Next month?

 

My guess is that it will either be next week or the week after.

[Guest happ]

The pattern this winter is not what we would expect.  Very frustrating that my rain total thus far is well under 10' just like previous 3-4 winters.  And that it would be a lot less except for the tropical moisture in July & September [over 2 1/2 inches].  Winter is half over.   

[Dan the Weatherman]

The pattern this winter is not what we would expect.  Very frustrating that my rain total thus far is well under 10' just like previous 3-4 winters.  And that it would be a lot less except for the tropical moisture in July & September [over 2 1/2 inches].  Winter is half over.   

 

I agree. This February so far has been the exact opposite of what I expected to happen this month. It really feels to me that this is a non El Nino year.

 

I am really beginning to think there is something else that is influencing our weather patterns in recent years that didn't exist as late as the late 1990's. Many of these winter and early spring months (January - April) over the last 4-5 years have been so remarkably similar as if they are clones of each other, which is leading me to believe that there is some forcing mechanism that is recreating this high amplitude western ridge / eastern trough pattern that seems to be appearing like clockwork beginning in either January or February.

[snow_wizard]

The thing that's killing you guys is the even the periods with Western troughing have featured NW flow with strong surface high pressure off the coast which is simply not productive for your area.  Then of course the during the Western ridges the base of the ridges have been too far south to allow any undercutting.   ​I think a major Rex block off the West Coast is what it will take for you guys to finally win.  That is the scenario that would make pretty much everyone on this forum happy. Hopefully you can pick up something worthwhile before this winter is over, but you might have to wait until next winter.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I'm getting the feeling that the warming in the Arctic and the corresponding ice melt may be playing a major role in modifying the overall pattern over the Pacific in which the storm track is shifting northward and this large upper ridge is becoming more dominant. This could be the major influence that I hinted at in the post above.

[Guest happ]

The irony; if this El Nino can not deliver than it is better to go into La Nina for a cooler drought.

[Front Ranger]

I think CA will see a major storm in the Feb 27-Mar 4 time frame.

[Front Ranger]

LAX has received 0.73" from this "surprise" storm, thus satisfying its half of the terms of the poll as specified by Mr Marine Layer; however, San Diego has received only 0.05", thus leaving the poll technically still open.

 

Front Ranger, at this point, it's not looking great for 2/27-3/4, although GFS does have a couple of fronts brushing us.

 

The Euro seems to be coming around to the idea of a storm around the first of the month.

[Guest happ]

Another dry week pretty much across California but toward the end of this coming week we could see rain, especially NorCal.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I can't think of a more favorable set-up that would bring good rains to CA than our current +PDO and strong El Nino together, and yet it is not happening. This combo has delivered BIG TIME in the past!

[Front Ranger]

Nope.

 

Today's says delayed but never denied!

[Front Ranger]

Yup.

 

Cautiously optimistic for something next Sunday the 6th, but whether it stays strong enough to meet the 0.50" criteria is still questionable.

 

I've been disappointed too many times by broken promises of a "pattern shift" this winter to get too hopeful for the week following.

 

Seems pretty likely that parts of CA will see a significant late season storm in days 6-8. Main question is how far south it goes.

[Front Ranger]

I think CA will see a major storm in the Feb 27-Mar 4 time frame.

 

Missed by a day.

[BLI snowman]

Missed by a day.

 

Nice.

 

I'm going to go a step further and call for at least two significant storms in the March 20 through November 14 timeframe.

[Front Ranger]

Nice.

 

I'm going to go a step further and call for at least two significant storms in the March 20 through November 14 timeframe.

 

Nice! Calling major storms in CA within a week period is really just shooting fish in a barrel these days.

[Front Ranger]

Not quite.  0.55" at LAX last night, but only 0.15" at SAN, so the poll is officially still open.

Maybe tonight and tomorrow, but it's looking questionable.

 

My statement was about a major storm for CA. That just happened.

 

I wasn't about to predict specific airport totals 2 weeks out.