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January 25-26th Snow Event


Geos

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GFS and the CMC has been showing a snow event consistently for the Great Lakes back into the Plains for a few days. Looks like a 1-4" event. If it can somehow become a bit colder, maybe a little more for some people.

 

 

Have to subtract off 1-2" in south central MN.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Our zone has become bottom feeders of SN scraps - LOL    For all the ways this season has not acted like a typical strong Nino, it is now doing very much that in January - storms to our south, then again to our north. Hoping we can score at least one decent snowstorm between mid-Feb and mid-March. I know that traditional strong Nino gives our best shot at the very end of the snow season in March. Let's see how it goes this year.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Another close call for N IL...looks decent for E NE and near MSP...

 

Just looking at the maps and track, it looks like the model is skimping out on the snowfall. I think the low will settle south some with the big area of snow over the Midwest.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Threading the needle over here...close call...

 

I strongly think that this will come a bit farther south. With all this snow cover to the south to hinder the WAA, I think north of I-80 will stay snow primarily.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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GFS and NAM are pretty close in track, GGEM seems like it amps up the storm too much. Local mets have been favoring a GFS like solution to this storm.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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GFS and NAM are pretty close in track, GGEM seems like it amps up the storm too much. Local mets have been favoring a GFS like solution to this storm.

 

Although I like the swaths on the NAM and GFS, you cannot discount the GEM's solution.  Not likely with a still positive PNA, but let's be real, this thing can cut and become a warm storm for us.

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Although I like the swaths on the NAM and GFS, you cannot discount the GEM's solution.  Not likely with a still positive PNA, but let's be real, this thing can cut and become a warm storm for us.

 

It could, but I have a feeling the GGEM will shift south. This doesn't look to be a strong system that gets amped up.

 

Once the East Coast storm departs will have a better idea where it will track.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Nws saying mix with an inch here...man this is getting depressing.

 

It is kind of weird, I think MKX is lowballing things at the moment, I'd go more like 2 to possibly 3", especially for Madison.  If you take the average of the GFS Ensembles, it is getting close to .5" QPF, and that should be all frozen, even if some of it is freezing rain/sleet.

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Milwaukee:

 

160126/0000Z  66  16008KT  31.7F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.014    0:1|  0.0|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.03    0|  0|100
160126/0300Z  69  15008KT  32.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025    0:1|  0.0|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.05    0|  0|100
160126/0600Z  72  18005KT  32.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.311    0:1|  0.0|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.36    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160126/0900Z  75  28008KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029    0:1|  0.0|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.39   44|  0| 56
160126/1200Z  78  29013KT  30.1F  SNOW   15:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048   15:1|  0.7|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.44  100|  0|  0
160126/1500Z  81  30015KT  29.6F  SNOW   19:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071   18:1|  2.1|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.51  100|  0|  0
160126/1800Z  84  31015KT  30.3F  SNOW   13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053   16:1|  2.8|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.56  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160126/2100Z  87  30013KT  29.7F  SNOW   12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037   15:1|  3.2|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.60  100|  0|  0
160127/0000Z  90  30014KT  25.4F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012   15:1|  3.4|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.61  100|  0|  0
160127/0300Z  93  30012KT  20.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   15:1|  3.4|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.61    0|  0|  0
160127/0600Z  96  29010KT  16.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   15:1|  3.4|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.61    0|  0|  0
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Milwaukee:

 

160126/0000Z  66  16008KT  31.7F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.014    0:1|  0.0|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.03    0|  0|100
160126/0300Z  69  15008KT  32.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025    0:1|  0.0|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.05    0|  0|100
160126/0600Z  72  18005KT  32.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.311    0:1|  0.0|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.36    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160126/0900Z  75  28008KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029    0:1|  0.0|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.39   44|  0| 56
160126/1200Z  78  29013KT  30.1F  SNOW   15:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048   15:1|  0.7|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.44  100|  0|  0
160126/1500Z  81  30015KT  29.6F  SNOW   19:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071   18:1|  2.1|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.51  100|  0|  0
160126/1800Z  84  31015KT  30.3F  SNOW   13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053   16:1|  2.8|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.56  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160126/2100Z  87  30013KT  29.7F  SNOW   12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037   15:1|  3.2|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.60  100|  0|  0
160127/0000Z  90  30014KT  25.4F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012   15:1|  3.4|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.61  100|  0|  0
160127/0300Z  93  30012KT  20.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   15:1|  3.4|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.61    0|  0|  0
160127/0600Z  96  29010KT  16.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   15:1|  3.4|| 0.02|| 0.01|| 0.61    0|  0|  0

 

 

Which model is this?

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6z GFS

 

It's a bit better up here:

 

160125/2100Z  63  16007KT  29.7F  SNOW    6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0
160126/0000Z  66  14007KT  30.3F  SNPL    4:1| 0.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.022    5:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.04   60| 40|  0
160126/0300Z  69  11005KT  31.4F SNZRPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.05|| 0.01|| 0.031    5:1|  0.2|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.07   52| 27| 21
160126/0600Z  72  02005KT  30.8F  SNOW   20:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.152   17:1|  3.3|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.22  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160126/0900Z  75  34011KT  28.8F  SNOW    6:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102   13:1|  3.9|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.32  100|  0|  0
160126/1200Z  78  33013KT  28.8F  SNOW   10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028   13:1|  4.1|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.35  100|  0|  0
160126/1500Z  81  32016KT  28.3F  SNOW    8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059   12:1|  4.6|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.41  100|  0|  0
160126/1800Z  84  32016KT  29.6F  SNOW   10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046   12:1|  5.1|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.45  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160126/2100Z  87  31015KT  28.3F  SNOW   13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020   12:1|  5.3|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.48  100|  0|  0
160127/0000Z  90  31014KT  23.8F  SNOW   12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   12:1|  5.4|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.48  100|  0|  0
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6z GFS

 

It's a bit better up here:

 

160125/2100Z  63  16007KT  29.7F  SNOW    6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0
160126/0000Z  66  14007KT  30.3F  SNPL    4:1| 0.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.022    5:1|  0.2|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.04   60| 40|  0
160126/0300Z  69  11005KT  31.4F SNZRPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.05|| 0.01|| 0.031    5:1|  0.2|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.07   52| 27| 21
160126/0600Z  72  02005KT  30.8F  SNOW   20:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.152   17:1|  3.3|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.22  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160126/0900Z  75  34011KT  28.8F  SNOW    6:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102   13:1|  3.9|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.32  100|  0|  0
160126/1200Z  78  33013KT  28.8F  SNOW   10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028   13:1|  4.1|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.35  100|  0|  0
160126/1500Z  81  32016KT  28.3F  SNOW    8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059   12:1|  4.6|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.41  100|  0|  0
160126/1800Z  84  32016KT  29.6F  SNOW   10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046   12:1|  5.1|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.45  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160126/2100Z  87  31015KT  28.3F  SNOW   13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020   12:1|  5.3|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.48  100|  0|  0
160127/0000Z  90  31014KT  23.8F  SNOW   12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   12:1|  5.4|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.48  100|  0|  0

 

 

Yeah, not surprising.  32F/33F and rain would be frustrating after suppression and seeing what the East Coast is dealing with now.  At least it shows the backside inch or two MKX was favoring.

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12z nam:

 

OSH

 

160126/0100Z  61  11005KT  31.4F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011    9:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0
160126/0200Z  62  VRB02KT  30.6F  SNOW   14:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061   13:1|  1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
160126/0300Z  63  VRB02KT  30.8F  SNOW   12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.105   12:1|  2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19  100|  0|  0
160126/0400Z  64  33003KT  30.8F  SNOW   10:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.135   11:1|  3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33  100|  0|  0
160126/0500Z  65  31004KT  30.6F  SNOW   11:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.129   11:1|  5.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.46  100|  0|  0
160126/0600Z  66  31006KT  30.6F  SNOW    8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062   11:1|  5.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160126/0700Z  67  30008KT  30.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012   11:1|  5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53  100|  0|  0
 
 
MKE
 
160125/1700Z  53  18006KT  29.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
160125/1800Z  54  17006KT  29.7F  SNOW    5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    5:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160125/1900Z  55  16006KT  30.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    5:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
160125/2000Z  56  15006KT  30.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
160125/2100Z  57  14007KT  30.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
160125/2200Z  58  13007KT  30.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.009    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.01    0|  0|100
160125/2300Z  59  13007KT  31.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.012    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.02    0|  0|100
160126/0000Z  60  13007KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.015    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.04    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160126/0100Z  61  15007KT  31.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.013    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.05    0|  0|100
160126/0200Z  62  16008KT  31.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.011    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.06    0|  0|100
160126/0300Z  63  19007KT  31.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.023    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.08    0|  0|100
160126/0400Z  64  22009KT  32.1F  SNPL    2:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.017    2:1|  0.0|| 0.02|| 0.09|| 0.10   33| 67|  0
160126/0500Z  65  24009KT  32.6F  SNPL    4:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.006    2:1|  0.1|| 0.03|| 0.09|| 0.10   33| 62|  6
160126/0600Z  66  25009KT  32.6F  SNPL    6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003    3:1|  0.1|| 0.03|| 0.09|| 0.11   59| 32|  9
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Close call here. Probably not going to know for sure where this will track until Sunday morning.

 

4km NAM looks to got a bit south of the 12km. Nice backlash in western IA and eastern NE.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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What the???

 

The 12km was generous for a small area, so I don't know what's up with the 4km. Some kind of issue.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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