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January 25-26th Snow Event


Geos

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Beginning to wonder if freezing rain or sleet might come in ahead of the low around here. Cold air has been stubborn to leave due to stratus for two days. If there's isn't any sun tomorrow, that could be an issue.

 

RGEM.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Beginning to wonder if freezing rain or sleet might come in ahead of the low around here. Cold air has been stubborn to leave due to stratus for two days. If there's isn't any sun tomorrow, that could be an issue.

 

RGEM.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016012418/rgem_asnow_us_14.png

 

 

NAM showing some FZR

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160125/00Z/f24/crefptypemw.png

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0z GFS

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160125/00Z/f036/24hkucherasnowmw.png

 

After seeing so many heartbreakers to the south the last few years, this one is pretty frustrating as well coming in late January.  If the big storm in the first few days of February misses, I'll feel like Mother Nature really owes Milwaukee.

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0z GFS

 

 

Yeah GFS has the rain/snow line cutting through the local area. Fox news was showing it holding below freezing around here for awhile tomorrow. Model is probably overdoing the marine influence as usual.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK LAT= 40.85 LON= -96.75 ELE= 1188

 

00Z JAN25

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

MON 00Z 25-JAN 0.4 1.8 1007 80 21 555 549

MON 06Z 25-JAN -2.4 -0.8 1007 95 20 0.00 550 545

MON 12Z 25-JAN -1.2 -2.9 1007 93 41 0.00 545 539

MON 18Z 25-JAN -1.0 -6.8 1011 81 93 0.01 543 534

TUE 00Z 26-JAN -2.2 -7.7 1017 79 91 0.03 543 530

TUE 06Z 26-JAN -1.7 -9.4 1022 78 67 0.00 543 526

 

 

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      ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OMA LAT= 41.30 LON= -95.90 ELE= 981

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK MON 00Z 25-JAN   0.0     2.3    1009      79      24             555     549    MON 06Z 25-JAN  -1.0    -1.9    1007      92      19    0.00     551     546    MON 12Z 25-JAN  -1.4    -1.9    1007      93      35    0.00     546     540    MON 18Z 25-JAN  -1.1    -5.1    1009      90      79    0.02     542     535    TUE 00Z 26-JAN  -3.3    -7.9    1015      85      98    0.06     542     529    TUE 06Z 26-JAN  -2.4    -9.8    1020      82      69    0.00     542     526    
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Little bit of freezing rain showing up on the HRRR around here.

 

 

EURO is a bit south, interesting.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I can tell you right now the low is going to pass south of most models. Pressure falls indicate a track near Chicago.

 

 

Milwaukee should stay all snow. Maybe even Racine.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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On the north side of town near alvo road, we are still in that heavy band, and my god are the roads treacherous. Heaviest snow all year.

 

 

EDIT: Also saw a few sorostitutes completely biff it on campus today, not gunna lie, it was pretty funny.

I have to drive from city campus to east in like 5 mins from now. Gonna suck navigating the parking lots on city.

 

At least I've got 4 wheel drive in my ford. :)

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Visibility is only like a hundred yards

 

Holy cow, that looks awesome out there!

 

Hoping for a miracle tonight and get a dusting snow at least. Right now it doesn't seem like a system is coming with partial sun.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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