El Nino is Dead. Long Live La Nina.

[Front Ranger]

The gist of things? We're seeing the long awaited flip to -ENSO. It's happening rapidly, but nothing unprecedented as far as I can tell. ENSO tends to have a rubber band/yo-yo effect, so snapping back from one of the strongest Ninos on record was to be expected.

 

The real interesting thing to me is if we'll see PDO/NPI return to 2006-2013 levels, or there will be a more muted response as there was in the 80s and 90s. With current low solar favoring more high lat blocking, I think no matter what the result will be better for the West than the mostly lame 1998-2001 -ENSO phase.

[TT-SEA]

The gist of things? We're seeing the long awaited flip to -ENSO. It's happening rapidly, but nothing unprecedented as far as I can tell. ENSO tends to have a rubber band/yo-yo effect, so snapping back from one of the strongest Ninos on record was to be expected.

 

The real interesting thing to me is if we'll see PDO/NPI return to 2006-2013 levels, or there will be a more muted response as there was in the 80s and 90s. With current low solar favoring more high lat blocking, I think no matter what the result will be better for the West than the mostly lame 1998-2001 -ENSO phase.

 

 

Great synopsis in a form that even a dummy like me can follow.   Thanks!  

[Bryant]

I am sure very few people on here can actually interpret that map. You make this mistake all the time with your audience and we are generally an intelligent bunch. You see things totally different but have a hard time bridging the gap between your knowledge and the rest of us mere mortals.

This map is actually very simple to understand and he explained in detail what you're looking at. You sure put a lot of effort into being the headache of this forum, must have no effort left to interpret a simple image.

[TT-SEA]

This map is actually very simple to understand and he explained in detail what you're looking at. You sure put a lot of effort into being the headache of this forum, must have no effort left to interpret a simple image.

 

 

Its not simple for me to understand... even with the explanation.    Sorry.

 

I made similar comments about diagrams he posted last year when we were building towards a Nino as well.    Other people have done the same.     

 

Generally speaking... Phil is on a different plane than most other casual weather observers (like me).

[TT-SEA]

I guess I can sorta follow this graph… something called “UWND850,” which I presume to be something happening at the 850-mb level, and within 5 degrees of the equator on either side ("5S - 5N," I'm guessing?), is plotted longitudinally on the x axis and across time on the y axis.  What was persistently blue for the past several months is forecast to turn suddenly orange, and vice versa.  Do I have that right so far?

 

I’m still not clear on what exactly the colors represent, and the cryptic “key” is no help at all in understanding what the circled areas represent because the acronyms are not explained, nor is the difference between dotted and solid lines.  It’s also not explained what unit of measurement is a “m s-1.”

 

Other than that, tch, yeah, a child could understand it

 

What do the changes represented by this graph imply vis-à-vis the poleward expansion of Hadley-Walker cells which some experts blamed for the non-El-Niño-like distribution of precipitation in the U.S. last winter?

 

 

I showed it to my 6-year old daughter and she laughed and said it was easy to understand.  

 

She said..."Dad, the red indicates positive/westerly wind anomalies @ 850mb, blue indicates negative/easterly wind anomalies @ 850mb. Now, figure the latitudes listed on the domain axis, and figure where these anomalies are located/occurring.   Now can I have a cheese stick and some juice?"  

[TT-SEA]

Ask her to explain "Kelvin," "ER," and "Low."  I do know what "MJO" means.  I didn't just fall off the turnip truck yesterday, ya know.

 

 

She said if we are so stupid to ask what Kelvin, ER, and Low mean then its not worth her time to explain.   Its self explanatory and kindergartners understand this stuff.   They covered it in her kindergarten class back in September on the second day of school right after learning how to draw the letter "A".

[Phil]

I guess I can sorta follow this graph… something called “UWND850,” which I presume to be something happening at the 850-mb level, and within 5 degrees of the equator on either side ("5S - 5N," I'm guessing?), is plotted longitudinally on the x axis and across time on the y axis. What was persistently blue for the past several months is forecast to turn suddenly orange, and vice versa. Do I have that right so far?

Yup.

 

I’m still not clear on what exactly the colors represent, and the cryptic “key” is no help at all in understanding what the circled areas represent because the acronyms are not explained, nor is the difference between dotted and solid lines. It’s also not explained what unit of measurement is a “m s-1.”

Zonal (E/W) wind anomalies. Positive/Red represents westerly anomalies, negative/blue represents easterly anomalies.

 

Other than that, tch, yeah, a child could understand it

 

What do the changes represented by this graph imply vis-à-vis the poleward expansion of Hadley-Walker cells which some experts blamed for the non-El-Niño-like distribution of precipitation in the U.S. last winter?

This graph doesn't much of anything about the Hadley cells. It does reflect anomalies in the strength/longitude of the Walker Cell, but not its width and/or latitudinal bias.

[Phil]

Ask her to explain "Kelvin," "ER," and "Low." I do know what "MJO" means. I didn't just fall off the turnip truck yesterday, ya know.

Low = Low Frequency, or "background" forcing. Often referred to casually as "ENSO" forcing.

 

Kelvin/CCKW = Convectiveky coupled kelvin waves, high frequency/shallow in depth relative to the MJO.

 

MJO: Deep, medium frequency propagatory wave. Can override ENSO forcing.

 

ER: I believe this stands for Equatorial Rossby wave, but I'm not sure on that one. I just call them standing waves.

[Phil]

Heavy trade wind burst on the 12z ECMWF/EPS, will boost Niña thermocline significantly.

 

[westiztehbest]

Low = Low Frequency, or "background" forcing. Often referred to casually as "ENSO" forcing.

 

Kelvin/CCKW = Convectiveky coupled kelvin waves, high frequency/shallow in depth relative to the MJO.

 

MJO: Deep, medium frequency propagatory wave. Can override ENSO forcing.

 

ER: I believe this stands for Equatorial Rossby wave, but I'm not sure on that one. I just call them standing waves.

 

I'll vouch for the MJO overriding the ENSO forcing in late December 2015 when it persisted in octant 4/5 from the 13/14th to New Years day where we received 30" snow in two weeks.

 

The rest of the 2015/2016 winter received a meager 12".

[Black Hole]

Latest update showing more and more cool water starting to surface. 

[TT-SEA]

May update from Klaus Wolter:

 

Compared to last month, the updated (March-April) MEI has stabilized (up by 0.11) at +2.07, continuing just below a Top-3 ranking for the second month in a row. The preceding nine-month run in the Top-3 is tied with 1982-83 for its duration, while 1997-98 kept this level going for a full 12 months. No other El Niño since 1950 even exceeded three months at that level. The August-September 2015 MEI of +2.53 represents the peak of the 2015-16 event, and was exceeded only during the 1982-83 and 1997-98 events. The overall evolution of the 2015-16 El Niño has been most similar to 1997-98, as monitored by the MEI.

[Phil]

May update from Klaus Wolter:

 

Compared to last month, the updated (March-April) MEI has stabilized (up by 0.11) at +2.07, continuing just below a Top-3 ranking for the second month in a row. The preceding nine-month run in the Top-3 is tied with 1982-83 for its duration, while 1997-98 kept this level going for a full 12 months. No other El Niño since 1950 even exceeded three months at that level. The August-September 2015 MEI of +2.53 represents the peak of the 2015-16 event, and was exceeded only during the 1982-83 and 1997-98 events. The overall evolution of the 2015-16 El Niño has been most similar to 1997-98, as monitored by the MEI.

The MEI might be similar, however, the orientation of the SSTs/forcing is nothing close, both longitudinally and latitudinally. Even years like 1982-83 and 1972-73 have problems with a cold/weak IO component.

[Phil]

Looking at SSTs today vs 1998, it's easy to see why 2016 will have stronger IO/MT forcing (and weaker EPAC/W-HEM forcing) than 1998 did.

 

The warm SSTs in the EPAC/ATL during 1998 induced a stronger W-HEM forcing component relative to the typical warm ENSO regression aggregate.

 

If anything, I could see 1998 morphing into an anti-log, in terms of the typical Niño-to-Niña behavioral spectrum. These years couldn't be more different if they tried, and that's really saying something considering their similar bases.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.5.9.2016.gif

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/1998/anom.5.9.1998.gif

[TT-SEA]

The IO was just as warm in 1998... but the Nino was slower to fade.

[TT-SEA]

Skip ahead to June of 1998 and the Nina was ripping apart the Nino.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/1998/anomnight.6.9.1998.gif

[Phil]

The IO was just as warm in 1998... but the Nino was slower to fade.

Correct, however what's important is the fact the IO/MT was relatively cooler than the EPAC/ATL, compared to average, whereas today the IO/MT is clearly morphing into the dominant equatorial furnace.

 

Think of the familiar phrase "what goes up, must come down", and apply it to tropical convection. Simply put, stronger convection in one given domain will lead to increased subsidence (sinking) elsewhere. With the EPAC/ATL relatively cooler this year, and the IO/MT relatively warmer, there will be a stronger IO/MT forcing component year, versus 1998, and likewise, the EPAC/WHEM component will be weaker.

[Phil]

Skip ahead to June of 1998 and the Nina was ripping apart the Nino.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/1998/anomnight.6.9.1998.gif

Again, see those warm SSTs in the EPAC/ATL? Note the VP200 reflection, EPAC standing wave evident with the typical IO/MT forcing biased slightly westward.

 

[Phil]

It feels like I regurgitate this every year, but there's definitely a shortage of viable analogs right now. Some are clearly better than others, though, and I certainly won't be caught with my pants down, wearing 1998 undies. It's not worst analog out there, but there are better ones.

 

Obviously, the ideal analogs will be developing La Niñas with a dominant +IO (sample size is too small to apply QBO/strat/solar filters). When it comes to tropical forcing (given an ENSO solution), I always look at the longitudinal SSTA distribution between 30N-30S before anything else, then try to match by latitude, with particular emphasis on the IO/WPAC warm pool. I've found that the tropical SSTs/convection matter a lot more than high latitude SSTs, as pattern drivers.

[TT-SEA]

Okie dokie.

 

1998 was cooler than the last three summers. I would take it in a heartbeat.

 

It could be argued that all of our summers are nice.

So then stop attacking me for bringing up discussion points based on write ups from other ENSO experts.

 

This is all on you today. I did not say anything to you.

[Phil]

You just keep going. Enough of this crap.

 

I was focused on 1889 for a variety of reasons... but Phil dismissed 1998 awhile ago.

 

I haven't actually "dismissed" it. In fact, it's one of the 7 analog years in my aggregate. I'm just saying there much better analogs available.

 

Theoretically there are additional "analogs" way back in the 19th/early 20th century, but I'm hesitant to use those years, for a variety of reasons.

[Bryant]

Not whining... we talked in PM yesterday and it was more of a reference to that.

 

Point is, someone gets on your nerves and you jump all over them. But yet, you do the same thing on here all the time to others, and you seem like it's totally alright. 

[TT-SEA]

Point is, someone gets on your nerves and you jump all over them. But yet, you do the same thing on here all the time to others, and you seem like it's totally alright.

 

OK.

[Black Hole]

It feels like I regurgitate this every year, but there's definitely a shortage of viable analogs right now. Some are clearly better than others, though, and I certainly won't be caught with my pants down, wearing 1998 undies. It's not worst analog out there, but there are better ones.

 

Obviously, the ideal analogs will be developing La Niñas with a dominant +IO (sample size is too small to apply QBO/strat/solar filters). When it comes to tropical forcing (given an ENSO solution), I always look at the longitudinal SSTA distribution between 30N-30S before anything else, then try to match by latitude, with particular emphasis on the IO/WPAC warm pool. I've found that the tropical SSTs/convection matter a lot more than high latitude SSTs, as pattern drivers.

Sometimes it is just easier to consider the direct effect of these things instead of trying to match it to some year that poorly resembles this one. That's my take anyway.

[GHweatherChris]

OK.

He is right.

[Phil]

Sometimes it is just easier to consider the direct effect of these things instead of trying to match it to some year that poorly resembles this one. That's my take anyway.

Agree wholeheartedly.

[Front Ranger]

It feels like I regurgitate this every year, but there's definitely a shortage of viable analogs right now. Some are clearly better than others, though, and I certainly won't be caught with my pants down, wearing 1998 undies. It's not worst analog out there, but there are better ones.

 

I sincerely hope none of us are wearing 1998 undies.

[TT-SEA]

LOL.

 

Only based on a truce agreement we came to yesterday.    Otherwise it would have been business as usual.

[BLI snowman]

I sincerely hope none of us are wearing 1998 undies.

They likely reek of Backstreet Boy do-do and Kenneth Starr's breath!

[Front Ranger]

Only based on a truce agreement we came to yesterday.    Otherwise it would have been business as usual.

 

Business as usual around here is pretty ridiculous.

[ShawniganLake]

Bye Bye Nino

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[TT-SEA]

Bye Bye Nino

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

Thanks for screwing SoCal and instead delivering the wettest winter in recorded history up here.

[BLI snowman]

Thanks for screwing SoCal and instead delivering the wettest winter in recorded history up here.

 

Palmer had 34" in December 1933 alone. Just over 39" in DJF 2015-16. For the 100th time, it was not your area's wettest winter.

[TT-SEA]

Palmer had 34" in December 1933 alone. Just over 39" in DJF 2015-16. For the 100th time, it was not your area's wettest winter.

 

 

Whatever.   Don't care about minor details at Palmer.   Good Lord.   How does that matter?      

 

It was the wettest winter ever for SEA and PDX.

 

And also the wettest August - February period ever at SEA.    

 

Not what one would expect with Nino.   We dethroned the very wet, strong Nina winter of 1998-99

 

http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/congratulations-seattle-youve-made-it-through-the-wettest-winter-on-record

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-wettest-winter-in-seattle-history.html

 

From Cliff:

 

Water year to date (Oct 1-Mar 1)

1.    38.22 2015/16  (as of 1:56 PM)
2.    38.19 1998/99
3.    37.96 1950/51
4.    36.39 1995/96
5.    36.06 1955/56

This is a major record.

 

Adding to the long list of 'wettest ever' periods in this decade.    2014 was extremely wet as well.  

[Phil]

Here's a graph depicting the average AAM decline following the 10 Niño/Niña transitions since 1979 (Credit for graph: Anthony Masiello).

 

Given where things are/where they're going, we're probably on track to flip into a background -AAM sometime in mid/late July.

 

[Phil]

I am thinking neutral next winter. The models did horribly last spring with the ENSO forecast for this winter. Many of them were showing neutral or even a Nina for this winter up until early April.

Bustola.

[Jesse]

Whatever. Don't care about minor details at Palmer. Good Lord. How does that matter?

 

It was the wettest winter ever for SEA and PDX.

 

And also the wettest August - February period ever at SEA.

 

Not what one would expect with Nino. We dethroned the very wet, strong Nina winter of 1998-99

 

http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/congratulations-seattle-youve-made-it-through-the-wettest-winter-on-record

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-wettest-winter-in-seattle-history.html

 

From Cliff:

Water year to date (Oct 1-Mar 1)

• 38.22 2015/16 (as of 1:56 PM)
• 38.19 1998/99
• 37.96 1950/51
• 36.39 1995/96
• 36.06 1955/56

This is a major record.

 

Adding to the long list of 'wettest ever' periods in this decade. 2014 was extremely wet as well.

To be fair, PDX and SEA only have records back to the 1940s.

 

And we all know that Cliff Mass loves to play this kind of thing up. Probably for similar reasons that you do.

[TT-SEA]

Bustola.

 

 

Possibly.

 

You busted bad last spring so I don't feel too bad.  

[BLI snowman]

Whatever.   Don't care about minor details at Palmer.   Good Lord.   How does that matter?      

 

It was the wettest winter ever for SEA and PDX.

 

And also the wettest August - February period ever at SEA.    

 

Not what one would expect with Nino.   We dethroned the very wet, strong Nina winter of 1998-99

 

http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/congratulations-seattle-youve-made-it-through-the-wettest-winter-on-record

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-wettest-winter-in-seattle-history.html

 

From Cliff:

 

Water year to date (Oct 1-Mar 1)

1.    38.22 2015/16  (as of 1:56 PM)
2.    38.19 1998/99
3.    37.96 1950/51
4.    36.39 1995/96
5.    36.06 1955/56

This is a major record.

 

Adding to the long list of 'wettest ever' periods in this decade.    2014 was extremely wet as well.  

 

You clearly struggle with climatology and it shows with your myopic, hyperbolic posts.  There's a clear distinction between wettest and 4th wettest on record, as this past winter was for the Puget Sound Lowlands. As tabulated by the fine folks at the NCDC, 1917-18, 1933-34, and 1998-99 were all wetter winters there.

 

And since December 2015 seemingly underachieved for the foothills (only 19.63" at Palmer), I'd say that is doubly the case for your own area.

[TT-SEA]

To be fair, PDX and SEA only have records back to the 1940s.

 

And we all know that Cliff Mass loves to play this kind of thing up. Probably for similar reasons that you do.

 

 

To be fair... none of the other years on the list were Ninos.   

 

There is reason to believe the expansion of the Hadley Cells and the mean position of the jet stream creeping northward played a role this past winter in delivering record rain farther north than historically would be expected.

 

If that is true then this coming Nina might not be what you expect either.