El Nino is Dead. Long Live La Nina.

[westiztehbest]

This December looks to be similar to last year atm.  I wouldn't mind.

 

[Phil]

That's a horrid pattern for Arctic air. Nothing good ever comes out of a +EPO in conjunction with a +NAM.

[Front Ranger]

That's a horrid pattern for Arctic air. Nothing good ever comes out of a +EPO in conjunction with a +NAM.

Aleutian high with some ridging into Western AK can work for the PNW.

[Phil]

Aleutian high with some ridging into Western AK can work for the PNW.

Yeah, if the block is negatively tilted or supplemented by a polar block like many of the 1960s events. This'd be more of a zonal pattern.

[Phil]

Setting the global SST anomaly to zero (current SSTAs relative to the global anomaly) can be useful.

 

From a tropical forcing perspective, by longitude, this is how the climate system "sees" things.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png

 

Versus the true anomalies relative to the 1981-2010 mean.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[Geos]

Current state of affairs.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

According to the CFS this Nina has peaked.

[Phil]

According to the CFS this Nina has peaked.

The CFS had it peaking in July about 4 weeks ago. Probably has something to do with the models being parameterized to maintain excessive off-equator ocean/atmosphere coupling in order to accurately reflect the PDO/AMO SSTA signature.

[Phil]

Niña Walker Cell shows no signs of abating. Next trade wind burst arrives this weekend.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/9F51F293-B0C6-44FA-AC10-8FB3A6F0EEA7_zps0a8gc9pt.gif

[Jesse]

The CFS had it peaking in July about 4 weeks ago. Probably has something to do with the models being parameterized to maintain excessive off-equator ocean/atmosphere coupling in order to accurately reflect the PDO/AMO SSTA signature.

 

The CFS is his reality.

[Jesse]

According to the CFS this Nina has peaked.

Does it also show Trump winning in a landslide?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I hate summer

[TT-SEA]

I hate summer

 

 

Thanks for stopping by!   

 

Most people hate summer here... it horrific compared to the rest of the country.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thanks for stopping by!   

 

Most people hate summer here... it horrific compared to the rest of the country.    

 

I honestly cannot wait for summer to be over. Most of the people at work have stated similar feelings the past couple weeks. Fall is where it is at. 

[Black Hole]

Fall is always a wonderful thing after all the summer heat. 

[Deweydog]

I'm usually ready for fall around the start of September. Weird, I know.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just pointing out that Tim lives in a Californication bubble... 

[TT-SEA]

Just pointing out that Tim lives in a Californication bubble... 

 

We have probably the best summer weather in the country.   Loving summer here is not a bad thing.   Most people do.

[luminen]

We have probably the best summer weather in the country.   Loving summer here is not a bad thing.   Most people do.

 

Yeah but not when summer lasts from April to early October.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah but not when summer lasts from April to early October.

 

 

That is called the warm season.   We have had plenty of cool, cloudy days in that period.   Entire weeks in fact.  

[BLI snowman]

That is called the warm season.   We have had plenty of cool, cloudy days in that period.   Entire weeks in fact.  

 

Haven't had more than 2" of rain in a single month here since March. It's been pretty persistently sunny and dry the past 5+ months. Vast majority of the time.

[TT-SEA]

Haven't had more than 2" of rain in a single month here since March. It's been pretty persistently sunny and dry the past 5+ months. Vast majority of the time.

 

 

Its called the warm season.   Its nice.   You know there is the complete opposite side coming for the next 7-8 months right?   

 

And June 10 - Aug 10 was troughy and cool overall... even more so down there.  

[BLI snowman]

Its called the warm season.   Its nice.   You know there is the complete opposite side coming for the next 7-8 months right?   

 

And June 10 - Aug 10 was troughy and cool overall... even more so down there.  

 

The warm season is very nice.

 

My point is that we've had an extensive one this year. That "troughy and cool" period happened to feature a vast majority of days with afternoon sunshine and 75+ temps here. Very little rain. There's no way to argue that we've had a very long, sunny/dry stretch of calendar this year and plenty of time to do outdoor activities. 

[TT-SEA]

The warm season is very nice.

 

My point is that we've had an extensive one this year. That "troughy and cool" period happened to feature a vast majority of days with afternoon sunshine and 75+ temps here. Very little rain. There's no way to argue that we've had a very long, sunny/dry stretch of calendar this year and plenty of time to do outdoor activities.

Good.

[BLI snowman]

Good.

 

Summer is good. So is fall.

[TT-SEA]

Summer is good. So is fall.

 

 

Most of the time.  

[Deweydog]

So fall is next, right?

[TT-SEA]

This is one wimpy looking Nina.   I like our chances this winter better now.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.8.22.2016.gif

[Front Ranger]

So fall is next, right?

 

Spring forward, fall back.

[Phil]

This is one wimpy looking Nina. I like our chances this winter better now.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.8.22.2016.gif

That 50km NOAA/NESDIS data isn't exactly high quality.

 

Would recommend using the CDAS site.

[TT-SEA]

That 50km NOAA/NESDIS data isn't exactly high quality.

 

Would recommend using the CDAS site.

 

 

Even compared to other Nina years on the same site with the same quality (apples to apples)... its a wimpy Nina right now.  

[Phil]

Even compared to other Nina years on the same site with the same quality (apples to apples)... its a wimpy Nina right now.

Actually, the NOAA/NESDIS algorithm was overhauled significantly back in January. It hasn't resembled the other datasets since, FWIW.

[Geos]

Better map to be looking at SST's.

 

 

Starting to fall back off.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Also worth noting how cold the water along the West Coast is getting.  Minus PDO signature setting up.

[Geos]

Also worth noting how cold the water along the West Coast is getting.  Minus PDO signature setting up.

 

Yeah you really can see that change up along the BC Coast now.

 

[Parksvillewx]

What's with the "blob" reappearing? Or is that just a seasonal feature this time?

 

 

Better map to be looking at SST's.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

Starting to fall back off.

 

[Black Hole]

What's with the "blob" reappearing? Or is that just a seasonal feature this time?

Looks like it, but it is fundamentally different. Summertime SSTAs away from the tropics don't mean much as they are usually shallow and disappear with fall storms. 

[Guest happ]

Here's some feedback by Jeff Brown of the LA chapter AMS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28qZnQs9TgA

[TT-SEA]

Latest update...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.8.25.2016.gif

[Phil]

Latest update...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.8.25.2016.gif

Did you already lose the link to the hi-res daily maps?

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/index.php

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif