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El Nino is Dead. Long Live La Nina.


snow_wizard

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Jim will love that one.

 

Honestly, I don't get 1) La Nina being declared "dead" so early and 2) the Blob supposedly reappearing, even though ssta are clearly different than 2014-15 in the North Pacific.

 

I do think it would bode well for the PNW if the new "blob" moves further offshore. And that will probably happen as we move into fall.

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Long live barely neutral, + blob.  :P

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Jim will love that one.

 

Honestly, I don't get 1) La Nina being declared "dead" so early and 2) the Blob supposedly reappearing, even though ssta are clearly different than 2014-15 in the North Pacific.

 

I do think it would bode well for the PNW if the new "blob" moves further offshore. And that will probably happen as we move into fall.

 

I totally agree.  Declaring the Nina dead is asinine IMO.  The current SOI certainly argues otherwise.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Canada's weather channel Winter 2016-2017 preliminary forecast:

 

"We expect that the jet stream pattern during the second half of winter will resemble (without duplicating) what we saw during the winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15. This would bring frequent and persistent outbreaks to Arctic air to regions east of the Rockies.

At this point we think that December is more likely to be an extension of the mild fall pattern with the pattern change holding off until later in the winter (similar to what we saw in 2014-15). However, it is possible that the pattern will change more quickly (as it did in 2013)."

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http://i.imgur.com/9SdqbJU.jpg

 

Canada's weather channel Winter 2016-2017 preliminary forecast:

 

"We expect that the jet stream pattern during the second half of winter will resemble (without duplicating) what we saw during the winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15. This would bring frequent and persistent outbreaks to Arctic air to regions east of the Rockies.

At this point we think that December is more likely to be an extension of the mild fall pattern with the pattern change holding off until later in the winter (similar to what we saw in 2014-15). However, it is possible that the pattern will change more quickly (as it did in 2013)."

How all these forecasts are calling for an essential repeat of the last 2 years despite a reversed base state is beyond me

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How all these forecasts are calling for an essential repeat of the last 2 years despite a reversed base state is beyond me

Seems like many long range forecasters put a lot of weight into those very positive SSTA's in the northeast Pacific.  Will be interesting to see whether or not they will be proven wrong. 

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Seems like many long range forecasters put a lot of weight into those very positive SSTA's in the northeast Pacific. Will be interesting to see whether or not they will be proven wrong.

Well, they are the mets and I'm not, so I would hope they know what they're talking about. In my opinion however, putting emphasis on SST's which are a result of an upper level pattern during the warm season doesn't hold much credibility during the cold season. The upcoming pattern will help to stir up the waters in the "blob" region and tone it down a bit.

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Well, they are the mets and I'm not, so I would hope they know what they're talking about. In my opinion however, putting emphasis on SST's which are a result of an upper level pattern during the warm season doesn't hold much credibility during the cold season. The upcoming pattern will help to stir up the waters in the "blob" region and tone it down a bit.

 

The funny thing warm SST's in the GOA are typical of negative PDO.  It seems like most people have forgotten that.  I'm not worried about the so called blob in the slightest.  It is totally different than the past two years.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It seems like a lot of mets and stations simplify their winter forecasts down to a single variable. How disrespectful to the world... Seriously... a bachelors or better in atmospheric science and you're going to tell me the sst's in the NE pacific are bases for a winter forecast? GTFO

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I would sure like to know what analogs they are basing these ridculous forecasts on.  Keep in mind everyone was calling for a torchy autumn, and right now it appears they are in huge trouble on September at least.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Strongest trade wind burst of the year, and SSTAs are doing exactly the opposite of what they should be doing.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

What's to blame here? Thermal instability waves? Those two oceanic rossby waves? I have no clue.

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Strongest trade wind burst of the year, and SSTAs are doing exactly the opposite of what they should be doing.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

What's to blame here? Thermal instability waves? Those two oceanic rossby waves? I have no clue.

 

 

That is not a good sign for this Nina.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Interesting info from an ENSO climatologist:

 

"But my professor, whose research is related to ENSO, brought up something I think is very interesting. He was talking about how anomalous warmth was relatively lacking in the east Pacific during the Nino, that it was based much more in the central Pacific than previous Ninos of that intensity. He then pointed out that now the the warmest part of the Nino is now the coolest part of the ENSO right now, and that the region that was once lacking positive anomalies compared to the rest of the basin is now the most anomalously warm part of the basin. He explained it as the Nino in the central Pacific burned all its energy, now it's trying to be a La Nina... but in the east, relative to the west, it really didn't have that much energy to burn... so it's fading away rather than burning away. He said maybe this is the reason why the ENSO is probably not gonna be a weak Nina. 

He's on board with CPC's "Nina-not-expected"

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Some hope:

 

One of the climatologists at work is really into Modoki ENSO events, and he mentioned that there's been some signs of a weak Modoki La Nina. I had never heard of Modoki La Nina before, so I looked it up and the following winter seasons have been attributed to that mode:

 

1973–74, 1975–76, 1983–84, 1988–89, 1998–99, 2000–01, 2008–09 and 2010–11

 

Haven't almost all of those years delivered a major snowstorm? Something to drool about.

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Strongest trade wind burst of the year, and SSTAs are doing exactly the opposite of what they should be doing.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

What's to blame here? Thermal instability waves? Those two oceanic rossby waves? I have no clue.

this is certainly a odd set up we are seeing.
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Some hope:

 

One of the climatologists at work is really into Modoki ENSO events, and he mentioned that there's been some signs of a weak Modoki La Nina. I had never heard of Modoki La Nina before, so I looked it up and the following winter seasons have been attributed to that mode:

 

1973–74, 1975–76, 1983–84, 1988–89, 1998–99, 2000–01, 2008–09 and 2010–11

 

Haven't almost all of those years delivered a major snowstorm? Something to drool about.

Interesting that all of those years were +QBO, except 1998-99.

 

I've noticed that +QBOs tend to favor west based Niñas overall..I guess it could be argued 2000-01 was neither/transitioning.

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I'm really not upset at all that this Nina is going to end up weak or even on the cold side of neutral. Since 1970, the 8 strongest Ninas have been poison for snow at PDX:

 

70-71: 10"

73-74: T

75-76: T

88-89: 3.2" (places farther away from the raging Gorge winds obviously did a lot better)

98-99: 2"

99-00: 1"

07-08: T

10-11: 1.8"

 

That averages out to a pathetic 2.3", and if you only count the winters after '71, it's 1.1". Strong Ninas had a much better track record before then, but I don't think you can write off the last 40 years as a fluke.

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It seems like a lot of mets and stations simplify their winter forecasts down to a single variable. How disrespectful to the world... Seriously... a bachelors or better in atmospheric science and you're going to tell me the sst's in the NE pacific are bases for a winter forecast? GTFO

This is one of my biggest complaints. It is so absurdly simplistic and does not represent what we know as a field. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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I'm really not upset at all that this Nina is going to end up weak or even on the cold side of neutral. Since 1970, the 8 strongest Ninas have been poison for snow at PDX:

 

70-71: 10"

73-74: T

75-76: T

88-89: 3.2" (places farther away from the raging Gorge winds obviously did a lot better)

98-99: 2"

99-00: 1"

07-08: T

10-11: 1.8"

 

That averages out to a pathetic 2.3", and if you only count the winters after '71, it's 1.1". Strong Ninas had a much better track record before then, but I don't think you can write off the last 40 years as a fluke.

 

Yeah, but one 30" winter and the average goes up to like 10"!

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That is true. Averages do tend to go up when you add in a year that exceeds the mean.

 

The point stands though, that it may very well be a good thing for PDX area weenies that this Nina looks to remain weak.

Weaker Ninas aren't a dramatically different story, though. Similar mixed bag, with a few really fun ones.

 

2011-12, 2008-09, 2005-06, 2000-01, 1995-96, 1984-85, 1983-84, 1974-75, 1971-72

 

No ENSO state will guarantee us success, but the good thing is a Nina of any strength at least virtually guarantees that the mean trough position will be closer to us than average. You'll notice that even the crappier ones (1974-75, 2007-08) tended to favor us for 500mb action.

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I would sure like to know what analogs they are basing these ridculous forecasts on.  Keep in mind everyone was calling for a torchy autumn, and right now it appears they are in huge trouble on September at least.

 

Even Socal has been cool this month. Highs here in Orange have been in the 70's and low 80's during the past few days at a time of the year it could easily be in the 90's or even near 100. I recorded a low of 53.7 out my bedroom window (north side of house) yesterday morning, and that temperature is more representative of late October or even November around here.

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