El Nino is Dead. Long Live La Nina.

[Phil]

What caused the QBO to go off the rails last spring?

 

Can we predict when it will happen again?

The QBO cycle is largely resonant, with larger -QBO amplitudes often preceding a subsequently anomalous +QBO 12-18 months later. Timing is crucial.

 

However, the question regarding 2015-16 was whether weaker solar forcing would (to some degree) negate the thermal winds behind that process, via the mesosphere-stratosphere predecessor. It was a unique experiment. In the end, solar forcing was not enough of a factor to play into the profession this year.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI4076.1

[Phil]

Generalised theory of ENSO and related atmospheric phenomena.

 

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0960148196000158

[Phil]

Life cycle of the QBO-modulated 11-year solar cycle signals in the Northern Hemispheric winter:

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.419/abstract

[TT-SEA]

So moderate Nina the best bet in 2016-17?

[Phil]

The Sun is the climate pacemaker I. Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures:

 

http://www.pas.rochester.edu/%7Edouglass/papers/PLA_Sun_I_in_press.pdf

[Phil]

So moderate Nina the best bet in 2016-17?

Anything from neutral to strong La Niña is in play. We'll know a lo more by April-June.

[TT-SEA]

Anything from neutral to strong La Niña is in play. We'll know a lo more by April-June.

 

 

That makes sense.     

 

Low solar seems to really enhance our seasons here... warmer summers and colder winters.    More blocking overall.    I like the Nina, low solar combination.

[Phil]

These are good reads as well, the first is a classic by Grey et al (1992) and is truly a foundational study.

 

Neither are paywalled, so read away:

 

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/resources/docs/gray%20et%20al%201992.pdf

 

http://contextearth.com/2015/12/12/biennial-connection-from-qbo-to-enso/

[westiztehbest]

thanks for the good reads.  hoping for another 2008 in the next few years....low solar + nina.  

[Geos]

CanSIPS showing a cool pool forming by June and by September a full flown la Niña.

I think a basin wide event is extremely unlikely, but this model and others have been hinting at a significant cooling trend over the equatorial waters as we head into spring.

 

 

 

Also the JAMSTEC.

 

[snow_wizard]

The subsurface profile has improved a bit over the past week or so.  A cold tongue is about to upwell off the coast of South America.  Quite a cold pool building under the Central and Western Pacific.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like the ridiculously resilient ridge has returned, at least for this week.

[stuffradio]

A bunch of model updates today have a -PDO and La Nina by July. The CFSv2 is amongst those that do not, but the NMME is one that does.

[Jesse]

A cool and wet July would be wonderful. We are so due.

[snow_wizard]

A cool and wet July would be wonderful. We are so due.

 

Or even cool and dry.  Aside from January the change in our summers has been the most dramatic of all in the NW.  They used to be far cooler than recent years.

[stuffradio]

A cool and wet July would be wonderful. We are so due.

That's not what it means. We all know it takes a couple months for the ENSO to effect the ground weather.

[Jesse]

That's not what it means. We all know it takes a couple months for the ENSO to effect the ground weather.

 

You don't know that. We switched from strong Nino to Nina summer 2010 and we all know how that turned out.

[stuffradio]

Just to note, I copied these from another weather forum, and someone else found them from somewhere else. I'm not taking credit for finding this stuff.

 

http://i.imgur.com/SYk0oeC.png

http://i.imgur.com/kuGRzfL.png

 

Here's an update to the JAMSTEC

http://i.imgur.com/lt5dAXC.gif

http://i.imgur.com/vBPbVO6.gif

 

The JAMSTEC is thinking we'll have 2 winters of a La Nina.

[snow_wizard]

I would still like to see the CFS come around.  It's an outlier, but it still bugs me.

 

Does anyone know when the ECMWF Nino plumes update?  It still shows the January 1 forecast on their official site.

[stuffradio]

I would still like to see the CFS come around.  It's an outlier, but it still bugs me.

 

Does anyone know when the ECMWF Nino plumes update?  It still shows the January 1 forecast on their official site.

The CFS was more mostly an outlier of sticking with a +PDO much like the JAMSTEC. Those are the only two models showing we won't flip to -PDO.

[snow_wizard]

The UKMET updated yesterday and progressed decently from the January forecast.  All ensemble members are below +1 by late summer with a bit over half below the zero line.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

I am thinking neutral next winter.   The models did horribly last spring with the ENSO forecast for this winter.   Many of them were showing neutral or even a Nina for this winter up until early April.   

 

None of it seems to matter in the outlook for next winter.   Every fading Nino in a low solar period that I looked at had a cold, snowy period in January (but not much else the rest of the winter).   That included years that went to warm neutral, cold neutral, and full blown Nina.    It all seemed to come down to a good to even great period the following January.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We are certainly "Due" in January. 

[snow_wizard]

We are certainly "Due" in January. 

 

Due is a huge understatement actually.

[TT-SEA]

Nature will probably find a way to screw us next January with our big shot for the winter.

[Jesse]

Nature will probably find a way to screw us next January with our big shot for the winter.

Great post! Certainly food for thought.

[TT-SEA]

Great post! Certainly food for thought.

 

 

I was just going with the theme that January is hopeless.  

 

Actually it should be our best chance in years in 2017.     I will stand by that regardless of ENSO next year.    

[Jesse]

I was just going with the theme that January is hopeless.  

 

Actually it should be our best chance in years in 2017.     I will stand by that regardless of ENSO next year.    

 

Might be hard to stick to those guns when Jim starts getting really excited about it. 

[TT-SEA]

Might be hard to stick to those guns when Jim starts getting really excited about it. 

 

 

Nah.   It might be warranted.    It does actually get cold and snowy here sometimes.  

[snow_wizard]

Might be hard to stick to those guns when Jim starts getting really excited about it. 

 

It would really help to know exactly what has caused January to be so awful lately while December has been decent overall.  I do think this Nino might have been epic enough to give the atmosphere a good kick in the arse though.  Maybe that's what we needed.

[Dan the Weatherman]

It would really help to know exactly what has caused January to be so awful lately while December has been decent overall.  I do think this Nino might have been epic enough to give the atmosphere a good kick in the arse though.  Maybe that's what we needed.

 

I hope this pattern gets kicked in the rear soon because I am really getting tired of the drought conditions in CA. This El Nino has not delivered the rains to Socal like strong Ninos usually do for some strange reason and we are getting record heat when we usually receive copious rains. I don't think I have ever experienced a winter in a moderate to strong Nino that has felt so un-El Nino like. I know that El Nino doesn't always guarantee wet weather for Socal, but this heat and dryness that has become a regular occurrence in recent years in February and March is getting downright ridiculous.

 

I am actually rooting for a La Nina for once to develop next season just to see if it changes the precipitation pattern in a positive way for more of the West Coast.

[stuffradio]

I hope this pattern gets kicked in the rear soon because I am really getting tired of the drought conditions in CA. This El Nino has not delivered the rains to Socal like strong Ninos usually do for some strange reason and we are getting record heat when we usually receive copious rains. I don't think I have ever experienced a winter in a moderate to strong Nino that has felt so un-El Nino like. I know that El Nino doesn't always guarantee wet weather for Socal, but this heat and dryness that has become a regular occurrence in recent years in February and March is getting downright ridiculous.

 

I am actually rooting for a La Nina for once to develop next season just to see if it changes the precipitation pattern in a positive way for more of the West Coast.

I don't actually think you want La Nina. It's a worse weather pattern for you precipitation wise.

[Jesse]

I don't actually think you want La Nina. It's a worse weather pattern for you precipitation wise.

Can't get much worse than the last few years, and there have been no La Niñas in the bunch.

[TT-SEA]

I don't actually think you want La Nina. It's a worse weather pattern for you precipitation wise.

Nothing is working for them... might as well hope for something that normally does not work and see if it does the opposite as well.

[Jesse]

Nothing is working for them... might as well hope for something that normally does not work and see if it does the opposite as well.

Exactly.

[snow_wizard]

I don't actually think you want La Nina. It's a worse weather pattern for you precipitation wise.

 

Maybe not given where we are at right now.  It's pretty common for So. Cal to be very wet when the NW is in a major Arctic episode.  Ninas have been known to deliver both.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Maybe not given where we are at right now.  It's pretty common for So. Cal to be very wet when the NW is in a major Arctic episode.  Ninas have been known to deliver both.

 

Our last good winter was 2010-11, which was a borderline strong La Nina. 2007-08, also a moderate La Nina, was also fairly good, except the rainy season ended a month early with a bone-dry March. January 2008 brought nearly 8" to Los Angeles in a series of storms that occurred throughout the month if I remember correctly.

[snow_wizard]

The updated ECMWF Nino plumes are quite good.  All but about 8 out of 50 are below the zero line by August.  The CFS is a complete outlier at this point thank god.

[stuffradio]

The BoM of Australia updated today. It has a really strong Nino next month (obviously). It drops the ENSO to weak Nino or strong Neutral by May, and weak Neutral to weak Nina by July.

[Jesse]

The BoM of Australia updated today. It has a really strong Nino next month (obviously). It drops the ENSO to weak Nino or strong Neutral by May, and weak Neutral to weak Nina by July.

Thank goodness. Cannot wait for this Nino to die.