El Nino is Dead. Long Live La Nina.

[Phil]

You have not missed La Nina. Hot summers and warm winters!

I have a little bit, at least as far as winter is concerned. La Niña winters can be quite dynamic here, actually. Big phased cyclones cutting over the mountains w/ strong frontal passages and the occasional midwinter severe event. Just not many pure snowstorms.

 

La Niña summers are another story.

[ShawniganLake]

I have a little bit, at least as far as winter is concerned. La Niña winters can be quite dynamic here, actually. Big phased cyclones cutting over the mountains w/ strong frontal passages and the occasional midwinter severe event. Just not many pure snowstorms.

 

La Niña summers are another story.

Models seem to be reeling in on the strength of this Nina.  What do you think Phil, are they onto something. 

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/figure4.gif

[Phil]

I think they're underplaying it. Still sticking with my -1.1 to -1.3 monthly ONI prediction. Will be fun to track.

[TT-SEA]

Looking less than thrilling right now... I am sure there is yet another round of strengthening coming soon.   But all the other rounds have failed to produce a robust Nina.    

 

I am still hoping for a weak Nina overall this coming winter to maximize our chances for blocking and cold.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.21.2016.gif

[Phil]

Something is wrong with those maps in the EPAC, I think the 1km version is better. The CDAS data is much more robust with the Niña signature.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

Niño 3.4 temperatures

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

[BLI snowman]

Looking less than thrilling right now... I am sure there is yet another round of strengthening coming soon.   But all the other rounds have failed to produce a robust Nina.    

 

I am still hoping for a weak Nina overall this coming winter to maximize our chances for blocking and cold.

 

 

 

Region 3.4 was at -0.6 on  the 7/13 update.

 

For comparison, it was -1.1 in mid July 2010, -0.5 in mid July 2007 (a very east based Nina early on), -1.4 in mid July 1998, and -0.2 in mid July 1995.

 

So it's running behind the stronger Nino to Nina transitions in recent decades but a bit ahead of years like 1995. 1995-96 still wound up being a borderline moderate level Nina.

 

A strong Nina feels unlikely at this point but further cooling will undoubtedly occur and it looks as if it'll be a sizable enough event. 

[BLI snowman]

BTW, 1995-96 was a winter that literally anyone in the northern half of the country would be pretty happy with repeating. Probably one of the most dynamic winters in our lifetimes. Tons of blocking and an extremely active southern and northern jet. Good combo.

[Bryant]

BTW, 1995-96 was a winter that literally anyone in the northern half of the country would be pretty happy with repeating. Probably one of the most dynamic winters in our lifetimes. Tons of blocking and an extremely active southern and northern jet. Good combo.

Love your insight, thanks man

[Front Ranger]

BTW, 1995-96 was a winter that literally anyone in the northern half of the country would be pretty happy with repeating. Probably one of the most dynamic winters in our lifetimes. Tons of blocking and an extremely active southern and northern jet. Good combo.

 

1970-71 was another winter in that vein.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The latest CFS ensembles show neutral ENSO this winter. 

[snow_wizard]

The latest CFS ensembles show neutral ENSO this winter. 

 

[snow_wizard]

1970-71 was another winter in that vein.

 

1970-71 was a decent winter, but it came close to being great.  One of those winters where the real goods failed to get south of Whatcom County, but areas further south still had some snow and cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ENSO looks to be positive neutral by new years. 

[TT-SEA]

ENSO looks to be positive neutral by new years. 

 

 

Relishing the role of contrarian again?  

[Jesse]

ENSO looks to be positive neutral by new years. 

 

This always plays in my head after your posts.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJ_R-G_i4Xk

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Relishing the role of contrarian again?  

 

I like to bring realism to the table. Likely that this will not be a true Nina. 

[Phil]

I like to bring realism to the table. Likely that this will not be a true Nina.

What makes you say that? Niño 3.4 is already in La Niña territory.

[Jesse]

What makes you say that? Niño 3.4 is already in La Niña territory.

He lives and dies by the CFS.

[snow_wizard]

I like to bring realism to the table. Likely that this will not be a true Nina. 

 

We don't need it to be.  A Nino is absolutely out of the question so we'll be fine.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

[Deweydog]

#ninastrong

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We don't need it to be.  A Nino is absolutely out of the question so we'll be fine.

 

I agree. It should be at least a decent winter. 

[Black Hole]

Everything I can see would suggest a weak la nina is most likely, maybe a tri monthly min of (-.4 to -.9) being the range I am looking at. I think a stronger la nina will occur next winter, somewhat mirroring the el nino fail followed by a strong nino the last two years. 

[Phil]

I'm still thinking -1.1 to -1.3 for a monthly ONI bottom. The Niño 3.4 anomaly I'd already ~ -1.0, with a multi-week trade wind burst now underway, strongest in over 4yrs.

[snow_wizard]

 

For one thing that is too high even for the current SST anoms.  Past history says warm ENSO is impossible this winter.  GFS is up to it's usual tricks again.  I can't believe you are actually taking this seriously.

 

The thing is even slightly warm ENSO is fine for us.

[snow_wizard]

I'm still thinking -1.1 to -1.3 for a monthly ONI bottom. The Niño 3.4 anomaly I'd already ~ -1.0, with a multi-week trade wind burst now underway, strongest in over 4yrs.

 

Between that and the extensive cold subsurface anoms I am beyond puzzled what the CFS is picking up on.

[Front Ranger]

Everything I can see would suggest a weak la nina is most likely, maybe a tri monthly min of (-.4 to -.9) being the range I am looking at. I think a stronger la nina will occur next winter, somewhat mirroring the el nino fail followed by a strong nino the last two years. 

 

 

I'm still thinking -1.1 to -1.3 for a monthly ONI bottom. The Niño 3.4 anomaly I'd already ~ -1.0, with a multi-week trade wind burst now underway, strongest in over 4yrs.

 

These ideas are not mutually exclusive.

[Front Ranger]

Between that and the extensive cold subsurface anoms I am beyond puzzled what the CFS is picking up on.

 

I'm guessing it's because cooling stalled for a bit. Once it resumes, it will probably trend colder again.

[Jesse]

Would a weaker initial -ENSO event lessen the chances for a multi-year Niña?

[Phil]

Would a weaker initial -ENSO event lessen the chances for a multi-year Niña?

I don't think so, see 1983-86.

[Phil]

EPS is impressive with the trade winds, would send us into moderate territory by mid/late August if it verifies, at least for awhile:

[Phil]

Just a massive trade wind burst on the 12z ECMWF/EPS in the 6-10 day range, through the 11-15 day range on the 12z EPS.

 

Even stronger than 12z yesterday or the previous 00z.

[TT-SEA]

Just a massive trade wind burst on the 12z ECMWF/EPS in the 6-10 day range. Even stronger than 00z.

 

 

Massive.   Terminology implies that we should expect massive changes in ENSO.    Like ice floating in Region 3.4 by the middle of August.

[Phil]

Massive. Terminology implies that we should expect massive changes in ENSO. Like ice floating in Region 3.4 by the middle of August.

This one is massive, strongest in 6 years. Could really knock up the thermocline.

[snow_wizard]

Just a massive trade wind burst on the 12z ECMWF/EPS in the 6-10 day range, through the 11-15 day range on the 12z EPS.

 

Even stronger than 12z yesterday or the previous 00z.

 

Very good news.  I'm comfortable we have basically entered a Nina, but I would like to see it get a little more well defined.

[ShawniganLake]

Some colder members showing up on the CFS over the last couple of days.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif

[TT-SEA]

Latest update... Nina looks more organized.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.8.1.2016.gif

[Brennan]

Why is the southern 40* of the earth’s ocean so chilly... and the northern 40% so warm?

[snow_wizard]

Why is the southern 40* of the earth’s ocean so chilly... and the northern 40% so warm?

 

There is probably some kind of a cycle involved with that.  That isn't a thing I've studied up on very much.

[Geos]

Why is the southern 40* of the earth’s ocean so chilly... and the northern 40% so warm?

 

Might have something to with the above normal sea ice coverage around Antarctica. Some kind of cold cycle going on in the Southern Ocean.