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El Nino is Dead. Long Live La Nina.


snow_wizard

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Goodbye El Niño. Looks like a relative cooling of poleward SSTs, which is typical following a prolific Niño.

 

That southern ocean looks frigid.

 

 

attachicon.gifimage.gif

 

The so called "blob" of warm water over the GOA / NE Pacific is finally gone.  I feel the same kind of relief a person feels when they wake up from a nightmare and realize all is well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Even if there is prolonged western ridging this summer, at least you'll have cooler nights and reliable marine pushes to keep things refreshing.

 

Summer ridging will mean an early and long fire season for California.

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The so called "blob" of warm water over the GOA / NE Pacific is finally gone.  I feel the same kind of relief a person feels when they wake up from a nightmare and realize all is well.

So now that the blob has faded away, I wonder how long until we see the effects of cooler SST's. 

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The so called "blob" of warm water over the GOA / NE Pacific is finally gone.  I feel the same kind of relief a person feels when they wake up from a nightmare and realize all is well.

 

 

This from a person who describes any rain in the summer as "gross".   I think you assume it will just be cool NW flow and sunshine.   But it does not usually work that way.    :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Is this a think or a hope?

 

You love warm summers, and probably would love nothing more than for each one to be progressively warmer than the last for the rest of our lives. Try to not let this cloud your judgement. 

 

In reality, it's not much of a stretch to imagine this summer may be a little cooler/troughier after our warmest summer on record last year and second warmest on record in 2014. Even 2013 was in the top 5 warm summers category for many places in Oregon.

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You love warm summers, and probably would love nothing more than for each one to be progressively warmer than the last for the rest of our lives. Try to not let this cloud your judgement.

 

In reality, it's not much of a stretch to imagine this summer may be a little cooler/troughier after our warmest summer on record last year and second warmest on record in 2014. Even 2013 was in the top 5 warm summers category for many places in Oregon.

I don't think it's my judgment that consistently needs to be kept in check.

 

I'm just curious why you would be "thinking" this summer would be considerably more troughed.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I don't think it's my judgment that consistently needs to be kept in check.

 

I'm just curious why you would be "thinking" this summer would be considerably more troughed.

 

Stands to reason after a couple very warm, ridgy summers the past few years.

 

I'm not saying it's going to be a super troughy summer. Just troughier than 2014 and 2015. It's all relative.

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Stands to reason after a couple very warm, ridgy summers the past few years.

 

I'm not saying it's going to be a super troughy summer. Just troughier than 2014 and 2015. It's all relative.

 

Past history would suggest June and or July could be hot, but late summer / early autumn should be normal or cool.  I do think we will see more in the way of cool marine pushes this summer given the chillier SST's off the coast.

 

I nearly died laughing last night when I saw an ad by an air conditioning company that claimed every summer will be hot in the NW from now on.  We all know that call is doomed to failure!

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Past history would suggest June and or July could be hot, but late summer / early autumn should be normal or cool.  I do think we will see more in the way of cool marine pushes this summer given the chillier SST's off the coast.

 

I nearly died laughing last night when I saw an ad by an air conditioning company that claimed every summer will be hot in the NW from now on.  We all know that call is doomed to failure!

 

 

Nearly died laughing at that huh?   Sounds like you are secretly worried.  :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The so called "blob" of warm water over the GOA / NE Pacific is finally gone.  I feel the same kind of relief a person feels when they wake up from a nightmare and realize all is well.

 

Hopefully a more normal weather pattern can now take hold, as opposed to all this anomalous heat the west has gone through the last 4 years. Also I am hoping for a wetter winter next year for all of CA, rather than just Norcal. This El Nino was a complete flop for Socal, and despite the wetter weather up north, it felt much like the last 3 winters down here, except that it wasn't nearly as warm.

 

I also would like to see the Arctic cool down for a change, as I think that is one of the factors that has really been messing up our weather patterns as of late.

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ENSO neutral in 2016-17 would be perfect.      The ensemble mean here brings it perfectly to 0.0 by December.    

 

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGPD200/20160327/poama.nino34.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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ENSO neutral in 2016-17 would be perfect.      The ensemble mean here brings it perfectly to 0.0 by December.    

 

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGPD200/20160327/poama.nino34.png

 

 

Probably not going to happen though, as we are most likely heading for a Nina.

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Does anyone have any non-misleading updates to post?

Forecast Summary

The model is forecasting strong La Nina (cold) conditions in the winter of 2016/2017

Click on the image to get full picture

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-03_for_2016-03.small.gif     March / April / May of 2016

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-03_for_2016-06.small.gif     June / July / August of 2016

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-03_for_2016-09.small.gif     September / October / November of 2016

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-03_for_2016-12.small.gif     December / January / February of 2016 / 2017

 

 

 

Data in Tabular Format for Nino 3.4 region (anomalies in degrees-C)

 

MAM 2016 1.32

AMJ 2016 0.67

MJJ 2016 0.02

JJA 2016 -0.59

JAS 2016 -1.15

ASO 2016 -1.62

SON 2016 -2.04

OND 2016 -2.36

NDJ 2016/2017-2.64

 

 

OR

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

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I'm thinking at least a moderate La Niña for 2016-17, probably a multi-year event.

 

Unfortunately, 2016-17 doesn't look like a very blocky winter to me, at least over the NPAC, as the Niña/-QBO typically has a harder time with mass flux conduits there. Hence you're often left with something resembling a +EPO/-PNA (flatter ridge below the Aleutians and a vortex over AK).

 

I'm more optimistic about 2017-18, though it's way too far out to be certain at this point.

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As a cold freak you should probably be cheering for a blocky, weak Nina.

The ENSO amplitude generally doesn't preclude blocking, or the lack thereof. Rather, usually it's other lower frequency forcings/resonances interacting with the antecedent circulations/ENSO that determine the strength and nature of the blocking, and if/when/how it is able to develop.

 

For example 2010-11 was a stronger Niña than 2011-12, but the former was clearly colder/blockier, due to the aforementioned factors.

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The ENSO amplitude generally doesn't preclude blocking, or the lack thereof. Rather, usually it's other lower frequency forcings/resonances interacting with the antecedent circulations/ENSO that determine the strength and nature of the blocking, and if/when/how it is able to develop.

 

I like our chances better for blocking with a weaker Nina.    

 

My feeling is that we might end up with a strong Nina and a strong jet stream with very little blocking to deliver cold and snow to the lowlands.   And some frustrated cold freaks that got what they wanted from an ENSO perspective but not the arctic air and snow they wanted.  This also seems to be your thinking above for 2016-17.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I like our chances better for blocking with a weaker Nina.

 

My feeling is that we might end up with a strong Nina and a strong jet stream with very little blocking to deliver cold and snow to the lowlands. And some frustrated cold freaks that got what they wanted from an ENSO perspective but not the arctic air and snow they wanted. This also seems to be your thinking above for 2016-17.

I understand where you're coming from, but the idea that a highly amplified ENSO inhibits blocking/promotes zonal flow is a common misconception borne out of recent experience and small sample size. It's actually the Niña/-QBO and Niño/+QBO that promotes the aforementioned pattern, often regardless of the amplitude of the ENSO event. Occasionally solar forcing can overwhelm on either end of the spectrum, but right now that's still probably a non-issue.

 

I agree though, next winter looks like a typical Niña/-QBO to me. In other words, +EPO/-PNA, not very blocky overall, some potential for a brief midwinter -NAM (arctic episode somewhere) sandwiched by warmth on both ends.

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As a cold freak you should probably be cheering for a blocky, weak Nina.

What I should or shouldn't be cheering for has no bearing on what is most likely to happen.

 

A neutral year is not a likely outcome. Cherry picking maps and pretending it is is misleading.

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I understand where you're coming from, but the idea that a highly amplified ENSO inhibits blocking/promotes zonal flow is a common misconception borne out of recent experience and small sample size. It's actually the Niña/-QBO and Niño/+QBO that promotes the aforementioned pattern, often regardless of the amplitude of the ENSO event. Occasionally solar forcing can overwhelm on either end of the spectrum, but right now that's still probably a non-issue.

 

I agree though, next winter looks like a typical Niña/-QBO to me. In other words, +EPO/-PNA, not very blocky overall, some potential for a brief midwinter -NAM (arctic episode somewhere) sandwiched by warmth on both ends.

So you are predicting a warm winter for us overall? Or are you speaking in terms of the lower 48?

 

Hopefully the runway global cooling you seem to keep pushing back a year with each passing year catches up to us eventually. Or perhaps we will catch up with it.

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So you are predicting a warm winter for us overall? Or are you speaking in terms of the lower 48?

It's early, but I'm leaning towards a cooler than average winter for your region, though warmer than average for the majority of the lower-48. That said, I'm not anticipating much in the way of upstream blocking, so it might be a 1998-99/2007-08 type of winter.

 

Hopefully the runway global cooling you seem to keep pushing back a year with each passing year catches up to us eventually. Or perhaps we will catch up with it.

Lol, I haven't pushed anything back, and I never predicted "runaway global cooling". I've regurgitated this repeatedly. A decline in temperatures should begin in 2017, +/- 1 year, and accelerate in the 2020s. I don't see any reason to modify this prediction in any way, at this point.

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What I should or shouldn't be cheering for has no bearing on what is most likely to happen.

 

A neutral year is not a likely outcome. Cherry picking maps and pretending it is is misleading.

I have no idea what will happen. Nor do I follow all of these details. Still holding out hope for neutral or weak Nina.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It's early, but I'm leaning towards a cooler than average winter for your region, though warmer than average for the majority of the lower-48. That said, I'm not anticipating much in the way of upstream blocking, so it might be a 1998-99/2007-08 type of winter.

 

 

Lol, I haven't pushed anything back, and I never predicted "runaway global cooling". I've regurgitated this repeatedly. A decline in temperatures should begin in 2017, +/- 1 year, and accelerate in the 2020s. I don't see any reason to modify this prediction in any way, at this point.

 

I think the crash in global temps following the 1997-98 Nina strongly backs you up.  This time we have a huge solar min slated to happen in combination with post Nino crash.  Should be fun!

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

I'm thinking at least a moderate La Niña for 2016-17, probably a multi-year event.

 

Unfortunately, 2016-17 doesn't look like a very blocky winter to me, at least over the NPAC, as the Niña/-QBO typically has a harder time with mass flux conduits there. Hence you're often left with something resembling a +EPO/-PNA (flatter ridge below the Aleutians and a vortex over AK).

 

I'm more optimistic about 2017-18, though it's way too far out to be certain at this point.

 

I think I remember if the QBO is positive in the autumn and then goes negative during the winter we can do pretty well here.  If it is already negative going into winter the cold signal (based solely on that index) isn't there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

I think I remember if the QBO is positive in the autumn and then goes negative during the winter we can do pretty well here. If it is already negative going into winter the cold signal (based solely on that index) isn't there.

That wouldn't surprise me. Obviously too far out to nail down specifics.

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You love warm summers, and probably would love nothing more than for each one to be progressively warmer than the last for the rest of our lives. Try to not let this cloud your judgement.

 

In reality, it's not much of a stretch to imagine this summer may be a little cooler/troughier after our warmest summer on record last year and second warmest on record in 2014. Even 2013 was in the top 5 warm summers category for many places in Oregon.

Not trying to be a pain, but again it's worth noting that stations in the region with little UHI influence don't show 2014 and 2015 as the top 2 summers for warmth.

 

However, definitely the warmest back to back summers on record.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Not trying to be a pain, but again it's worth noting that stations in the region with little UHI influence don't show 2014 and 2015 as the top 2 summers for warmth.

 

However, definitely the warmest back to back summers on record.

No worries, you are a pain without even trying. ;)

 

Looking regionally, 2015 and 2014 were the two warmest summers on record. Regional rankings represent an aggregate of all stations, UHI infected or otherwise.

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2015 was definitely a recordbreaker, not some UHI influenced climate fabircation.

 

Hottest on record for Washington (1958 is 2nd place and was 0.7 degrees cooler).

 

Hottest on record for Oregon (2003 is 2nd place and was also 0.7 degrees cooler).

 

2014 was less impressive for meteorological summer, thanks to the relatively cool June. It came in as the 8th hottest for Washington and 6th hottest for Oregon. In Oregon, 2013 was actually hotter than 2014 by a smidge and is currently in 4th place. 

 

The Climate at a Glance page on NCDC's site will tell you all of this

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/

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2015 was definitely a recordbreaker, not some UHI influenced climate fabircation.

 

Hottest on record for Washington (1958 is 2nd place and was 0.7 degrees cooler).

 

Hottest on record for Oregon (2003 is 2nd place and was also 0.7 degrees cooler).

 

2014 was less impressive for meteorological summer, thanks to the relatively cool June. It came in as the 8th hottest for Washington and 6th hottest for Oregon. In Oregon, 2013 was actually hotter than 2014 by a smidge and is currently in 4th place.

 

The Climate at a Glance page on NCDC's site will tell you all of this

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/

I remember Mark Nelsen posting a map that broke the states into regions. If I recall 2014 was the hottest on record for the Willamette Valley and Puget Sound regions.

 

It was certainly the hottest July-September on record, regionally, which is more representative of that summer anyway, since the warmth was centered on JAS.

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