Jump to content

GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd


Geos

Recommended Posts

Lol, showing sleet accumulation again here.

 

Still 160+ hours out. 120 hours these models should start agreeing on a solution.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd wait till the Euro loads before making that call...

EURO burned us last storm....I'm hoping the GFS is right on this one. Will be interesting to see if Jim Flowers starts falling in love with the GFS with it's snowfall forecasts lately!! I'm just hoping for a beast that can share the wealth to everyone......

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This thing is still 180+ hours out yet feels like we've been tracking it for weeks

I know, it's incredible how consistent this thing has been showing up on the models. Didn't the groundhog blizzard in Chicago have the same thing happen?? We all know how that thing turned out, I would like to see something like that roll through our area. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EURO burned us last storm....I'm hoping the GFS is right on this one. Will be interesting to see if Jim Flowers starts falling in love with the GFS with it's snowfall forecasts lately!! I'm just hoping for a beast that can share the wealth to everyone......

Yup!  Wonder what his reaction is going to be if the Euro keeps the southerly track.  Although, you can't discount this storm digging into 4 corners like it did back in December and wayy back in Oct 19th-22nd when a cut-off low sat there and spun.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know, it's incredible how consistent this thing has been showing up on the models. Didn't the groundhog blizzard in Chicago have the same thing happen?? We all know how that thing turned out, I would like to see something like that roll through our area. 

In 2011...the Euro had it 7+ days out...man, that was exhilarating!  In 2015, the GFS had it 6-10 days out then completely lost the storm Day 5-6, then all of a sudden brought it back.  It was because that energy was coming out of the Eastern Pacific where there isn't much data available.  That was an interesting storm to track.  Kept getting juicier each run.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like more cold air out ahead of the system.

 

Going to be big I think.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cuts up right over KC/W IL/S WI...

 

The map shows it cuts into MI...

 

 

Need the low to hang back a little and dig. Eject it out near Amarillo - would be perfect for almost everyone.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here are some numbers from teh 0z Euro.  I will post others in a few mins. 

 

DSM:

MON 18Z 01-FEB   5.4    -2.9    1009      73      90    0.00     548     541    TUE 00Z 02-FEB   2.8    -2.7    1008      89     100    0.09     547     541    TUE 06Z 02-FEB   0.7    -2.0    1006      96      88    0.23     546     541    TUE 12Z 02-FEB   0.2    -4.0    1001      96      82    0.40     536     536    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -2.2    -7.1    1003      90      74    0.18     532     530    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -8.7    -7.7    1014      74      91    0.02     533     522    WED 06Z 03-FEB -14.4    -9.4    1023      67      35    0.00     535     518    

OMA:

MON 18Z 01-FEB   5.1    -3.5    1009      67      85    0.00     546     540    TUE 00Z 02-FEB   2.0    -3.6    1007      90     100    0.08     545     539    TUE 06Z 02-FEB   0.1    -4.4    1005      92     100    0.31     542     538    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -3.4    -6.7    1006      90      97    0.51     534     529    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -8.3    -7.6    1013      81      98    0.23     533     523    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -9.4    -8.4    1021      67      51    0.02     536     520    WED 06Z 03-FEB -14.5   -10.0    1026      70      56    0.00     537     517    

MCI:

MON 18Z 01-FEB   4.5     2.1    1006      84      49    0.00     552     547    TUE 00Z 02-FEB   4.1     3.0    1003      91      61    0.02     549     546    TUE 06Z 02-FEB   3.4     7.2     998      98      71    0.10     545     547    TUE 12Z 02-FEB   4.1     2.3     997      84      39    0.01     537     539    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -0.6    -6.3    1005      82      93    0.04     536     531    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -5.3    -9.0    1019      59      95    0.02     537     522    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -7.4    -8.4    1026      52      55    0.00     541     520    

ORD:

MON 18Z 01-FEB   2.4    -0.9    1011      89      97    0.01     549     541    TUE 00Z 02-FEB   0.4    -0.6    1012      96      76    0.00     552     543    TUE 06Z 02-FEB   1.5     1.4    1010      96      99    0.06     551     544    TUE 12Z 02-FEB   1.5     6.5    1006      97      70    0.15     552     548    TUE 18Z 02-FEB   6.1     6.3     997      97      51    0.43     549     551    WED 00Z 03-FEB   6.0     2.2     995      82      38    0.01     540     544    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -0.3    -9.1    1003      81      94    0.00     530     528    
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here four more cities that I remember people asking for

 

LNK:

MON 12Z 01-FEB   0.1    -2.8    1010      94      97    0.03     547     539    MON 18Z 01-FEB   3.6    -3.2    1008      74      89    0.01     547     540    TUE 00Z 02-FEB   1.3    -3.7    1006      96     100    0.15     545     539    TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -0.5    -5.1    1004      94     100    0.35     540     537    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -4.6    -7.6    1007      89      98    0.46     534     528    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -8.3    -8.5    1016      76      97    0.16     535     522    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -9.2    -7.9    1022      70      59    0.01     537     520    WED 06Z 03-FEB -15.5    -9.6    1027      72      65    0.00     538     517    

CID:

MON 18Z 01-FEB   4.2    -2.4    1010      81      95    0.01     548     540    TUE 00Z 02-FEB   2.1    -2.1    1010      92      93    0.10     549     541    TUE 06Z 02-FEB   0.5    -0.3    1008      93      94    0.20     548     541    TUE 12Z 02-FEB   0.9     4.1    1000      95      63    0.25     544     544    TUE 18Z 02-FEB   2.1    -0.9     998      96      47    0.13     535     536    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -3.5    -8.1    1005      84      89    0.02     531     527    WED 06Z 03-FEB -12.2    -9.3    1017      62      15    0.00     533     520    

MSN:

TUE 00Z 02-FEB   0.7    -3.2    1013      88      96    0.00     548     538    TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -0.6    -3.3    1012      91      98    0.09     547     538    TUE 12Z 02-FEB   0.0    -1.0    1006      93      79    0.16     547     543    TUE 18Z 02-FEB   1.2     2.7     999      95      20    0.19     541     542    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -0.2    -4.4     998      93      53    0.04     531     532    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -7.0    -9.5    1007      78      56    0.01     528     523    WED 12Z 03-FEB -16.3   -12.8    1019      71      36    0.00     529     515    

OSH:

MON 18Z 01-FEB   0.8    -4.7    1012      89      92    0.00     545     535    TUE 00Z 02-FEB  -0.6    -4.0    1013      91      89    0.00     547     536    TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -1.3    -4.7    1014      91      99    0.01     547     536    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -0.6    -3.5    1010      93      97    0.08     547     539    TUE 18Z 02-FEB   0.2     3.6     999      92      71    0.17     542     543    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -0.4    -3.3     997      95      45    0.16     531     534    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -3.4    -9.6    1002      81      70    0.01     526     524    WED 12Z 03-FEB -15.8   -14.2    1016      71      24    0.00     526     514    
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not a good night of model runs from here to Chicago. What worries me is the GFS has consistently shown it NW. The majority of the EURO ensembles did too.

 

There's a lot of moving parts this far out. I'm sure tomorrow something slightly different will show up.

Well don't look at the JMA from earlier! That's a solution have of us would hate to see. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...