GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[jcwxguy]

.

[jcwxguy]

snow 192 (still snowing Wisconsin./Minn 

[gosaints]

slower... thats a nice trough.. thats about all that matters in this timeframe.  alot to happen before then

[hlcater]

GFS keeps ejecting too early

[gosaints]

GFS keeps ejecting too early

Seasonally that outcome has been much more likely

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160126/12Z/f198/acckucherasnowmw.png

[winterfreak]

Ugh come come south just a little bit.

[jcwxguy]

qpf

[jcwxguy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016012612/gem_mslp_pcpn_us_22.png

[Tony]

qpf

Does not look right to me. There seems to be alot more qpf around then what that shows.

[jcwxguy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016012612/gem_mslp_pcpn_us_27.png

[Tony]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016012612/gem_mslp_pcpn_us_27.png

Now that is more like it

[jcwxguy]

.gem-looks funny to me

[Tony]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016012612/gem_mslp_pcpn_us_22.png

Is that (L) in MO being shown a clipper

[hlcater]

GGEM is out to lunch.

[Geos]

The battle between Jim Flowers and Gary Lezak...haha...Here is Gary Lezak's take...

 

Wow, hes showing maps already!

 

It looks like the GFS came back SE on this run. Got 4-5" to show for it.

[jcwxguy]

Is that (L) in MO being shown a clipper

no, broken energy looks like from a low earlier in the nw

[Tony]

GGEM is out to lunch.

The GEM handles the northern stream better than most models and there is a big HP with this setup but who really knows.

[Tony]

Not as much qpf as the GFS but not bad

[WBadgersW]

Let's see the GFS go South a bit and the GEM go North a bit. That would be perfect. Its going to be a week of model watching, that's for sure

[Geos]

Is that (L) in MO being shown a clipper

 

No it comes out of CO.

 

It would be better to have the energy come out as one piece and just have one lead wave that is strong enough to pull the baroclinic zone far enough south.

[Geos]

Interesting with the GGEM and GFS jet stream speeds, the more SE solution has the jet stream as stronger.

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

My ears may start perking back up in a day or 2 if the trends continue.

[gosaints]

Gonna be alot of people in here cheering for a strung out mess.

[Tom]

#ElNino look on the GGEM jet stream...monster trough...although, its having problems losing the energy later in the run. GFS phases a nice storm but still doesn't dig this storm.

 

So far I've seen the LRC prove that a storm will exist. Next thing I was waiting for was the trowal signature which is becoming evident today on both the GGEM/GFS thus far. The last item on the check list is the track. We shall see.

[FarmerRick]

Gonna be alot of people in here cheering for a strung out mess.

 

 

...and bitching when then overdone qpf on these models don't verify.  

[WBadgersW]

...and bitching when then overdone qpf on these models don't verify.

The same thing was said in November... It seems like moisture hasn't really been a issue with storms this year, that is when we do get storms. Why do you think its overdone?

 

Edit* I'm not saying the 20+" amount will verify, but this storm has the potential to drop 12+" in some locations.

[gabel23]

I'm just not liking the fact we are sitting in a sweet spot with a week to go. Although I'm fine with the GFS shifting to the southeast because that would put me further into the sweet spot for snow. Just no major shift please!!! 

[OKwx2k4]

...and bitching when then overdone qpf on these models don't verify.

You mean like on December 26th? Lol. Jk.

[Geos]

Moisture has not been a problem this winter around here. Even the clipper earlier in the month over performed.

[FarmerRick]

The same thing was said in November... It seems like moisture hasn't really been a issue with storms this year, that is when we do get storms. Why do you think its overdone?

 

Edit* I'm not saying the 20+" amount will verify, but this storm has the potential to drop 12+" in some locations.

 

 

Well, there you go....

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160126/12Z/f096/sfcmslpconus.png

[jcwxguy]

(will auto update)

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160126/12Z/f120/sfcmslpconus.png

[Geos]

That low in TX is moving faster on this run, then the 12z run yesterday.

[WBadgersW]

Well, there you go....

I don't think anybody here thinks they are getting 20+".

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160126/12Z/f144/sfcmslpconus.png

[jcwxguy]

will auto update

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160126/12Z/f168/sfcmslpconus.png

[jcwxguy]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK    LAT=  40.85 LON=  -96.75 ELE=  1188                                            12Z JAN26                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -0.5    -2.8    1004      91      95    0.16     544     541    

mix bag?  (850 looks ok,k but the THK is above the 540

[Geos]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK    LAT=  40.85 LON=  -96.75 ELE=  1188                                            12Z JAN26                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -0.5    -2.8    1004      91      95    0.16     544     541    

mix bag?

 

 

Doubt it.

 

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160126/12Z/f192/sfcmslpconus.png