GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[Snowlover76]

I think it moves NW to where the GFS is. Maybe a little further.

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks guys. Just looking at others ideas.

[Iowa2015]

It be  interesting  to see the  euro  if it  following  the trend  of Canadian  gem.

[GDR]

My guess is it lines up with the GFS maybe more nw

[Geos]

I think it will be a similar setup but will have a more smooth track.

[bud2380]

WPC is going with a model blend. They are not discounting the GFS but believe it may be too far north. They are throwing out the NAM on day 3 forward though. 

 

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

 

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND THROUGH DAY 2...AND A NON NAM SOLUTION BY DAY 3 CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW FORMATION ON SUNDAY MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...EVENTUALLY TRANSFERRING TO THE LEE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER NE NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS OVERALL LARGER SCALE PATTERN SEEMS WELL ESTABLISHED AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THIS SYSTEM HAVING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL RESULT IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER INTERNAL DIFFERENCES/DETAILS WHICH MOSTLY BEGINS TO EXPAND MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY IN THE EJECTION ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. VERY GOOD CLUSTERING IS SEEN AMONG THE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW TRACK. THE 0Z GFS REMAINS A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...BUT IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF ITS 18Z RUN. THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH...BUT NOT YET CLEAR IF THIS IS A RELIABLE TREND OR IF THE GFS IS JUST AN OUTLIER. IT IS INTERESTING THAT BOTH THE 18Z AND 0Z RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE THE LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THAN ANY OF THE GEFS MEMBERS FROM 12Z...WHICH ARE GENERALLY MUCH MORE CLUSTERED WITH THE OZ NAM AND 12Z ECMWF/GEM/UKMET. THINK THE 0Z RUNS OF THE OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE WILL GIVE A STRONG HINT AS TO WHETHER THIS NORTHWARD TREND IS REASONABLE OR NOT. FOR NOW THE GFS WOULD APPEAR TO REPRESENT A LESS LIKELY SOLUTION THROUGH DAY 2...ALTHOUGH NOT AN IMPOSSIBLE SOLUTION. THE 12Z GEM IS A BIT SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT ITS SENSIBLE WEATHER. THUS THE WPC PREFERENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS TYPE OF BLEND WOULD DOWNPLAY THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT STILL INCORPORATE SOME OF IT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. AS WE HEAD THROUGH TUESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. BY THIS TIME THE 0Z NAM BECOMES A FLAT AND WEAK OUTLIER...AND IS THUS NOT PREFERRED GIVEN IT LIES OUTSIDE THE REASONABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE. WITH REGARDS TO THE NORTHWARD EXTENT...THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT THE 0Z GFS HAS TRENDED SOUTHEAST. THUS THE ONLY REAL DIFFERENCES ARE WITH TIMING...WITH THE 0Z GFS THE QUICKEST SOLUTION AND THE 12Z ECMWF/GEM THE SLOWEST...AND THE UKMET IN BETWEEN. NOT UNCOMMON TO SEE THE GFS FAST AND ECMWF SLOW WITH SYSTEMS...AND MORE OFTEN THAN NOT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN SEEMS TO VERIFY BEST. THUS SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE 12Z UKMET...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE 0Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF IS P

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Jim flowers now singing the eagles song peaceful easy feeling on his latest Facebook video. God love him. Says throw out nam and he he says amounts might increase. Believe him or not but he is fun with his love of weather

[Money]

Ukie 995 right over Chicago at 72

[Snowlover76]

Jim flowers now singing the eagles song peaceful easy feeling on his latest Facebook video. God love him. Says throw out nam and he he says amounts might increase. Believe him or not but he is fun with his love of weather

Dude is awesome. 

[GDR]

[NEJeremy]

Jim flowers now singing the eagles song peaceful easy feeling on his latest Facebook video. God love him. Says throw out nam and he he says amounts might increase. Believe him or not but he is fun with his love of weather

On an update from a couple of hours ago he showed a county map of grid amounts that NWS is forecasting even though they haven't called for official amounts in their discussions or point forecasts. It has 13 for Omaha and 15 for Lincoln.

[bud2380]

Euro is running. out to 24 hours. 

[Geos]

996 mb low over the Mojave.

[GDR]

This will be the run that the neb folks will be jumping up and down

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160131/00Z/f024/sfcmslpconus.png

[CentralNebWeather]

Why?

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160131/00Z/f048/sfcmslpconus.png

[jcwxguy]

def southeast of 00z run last night 

[hlcater]

Low is in North Central Texas at 48hrs. South and slow on the euro so far. 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160131/00Z/f048/sfcmslpconus.png

[Snowlover76]

hows the euro going? 

[Grizzcoat]

well E of 24 hours ago--

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160131/00Z/f072/sfcmslpconus.png

[Grizzcoat]

[ToastedRavs]

Looks good for Iowa. Southeast of tonight's GFS run but that was expected

[Snowlover76]

I think it moves NW to where the GFS is. Maybe a little further.

fail

[Money]

Niceeeee

[ToastedRavs]

It digs further into Texas rather than GFS which has it in Oklahoma more

[Snowlover76]

how does it look for the Lincoln area? 

[Iowa2015]

early on looks like euro trending like gem cand

[CentralNebWeather]

Snowfall maps please when they load. Thanks

[Grizzcoat]

just W of DSM-

TUE 06Z 02-FEB   0.7    -3.0    1016      91     100    0.04     551     538    TUE 12Z 02-FEB   0.0    -4.7    1008      89     100    0.25     548     541    TUE 18Z 02-FEB   0.0    -4.1    1003      94      23    0.50     538     536    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -0.3    -5.0    1002      93      54    0.10     533     532    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -4.2    -8.1    1010      85      85    0.03     534     526 

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160131/00Z/f096/sfcmslpconus.png

[bud2380]

i said 20-40 mile shift SE.  Looks like it moved 20-30 miles SE; at least in E Iowa.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Sk7LJAc.png

[jcwxguy]

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK    LAT=  40.85 LON=  -96.75 ELE=  1188
 

                                            00Z JAN31

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 

SUN 00Z 31-JAN   7.3     8.5    1001      72      25             554     554    

SUN 06Z 31-JAN   2.6     3.3    1003      90      46    0.01     552     550    

SUN 12Z 31-JAN   1.9     0.1    1006      91      87    0.03     548     543    

SUN 18Z 31-JAN   7.0    -1.1    1010      61      32    0.00     545     537    

MON 00Z 01-FEB   3.6    -1.0    1012      65      18    0.00     548     538    

MON 06Z 01-FEB  -0.7    -1.5    1015      76      25    0.00     551     538    

MON 12Z 01-FEB  -1.1    -0.7    1016      77      43    0.00     550     538    

MON 18Z 01-FEB   4.4    -1.5    1016      60      98    0.00     551     537    

TUE 00Z 02-FEB   2.0    -3.2    1014      87      95    0.05     549     538    

TUE 06Z 02-FEB   0.7    -3.9    1012      95     100    0.11     548     538    

TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -1.0    -6.1    1005      92     100    0.41     541     537    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -2.4    -6.9    1004      93      86    0.37     533     529    

WED 00Z 03-FEB  -3.3    -8.4    1011      87      95    0.16     534     526    

WED 06Z 03-FEB  -5.8    -8.9    1019      81      91    0.01     538     523    
 
 

 

 

[Money]

i said 20-40 mile shift SE. Looks like it moved 20-30 miles SE; at least in E Iowa.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Sk7LJAc.png

How does it look in wisconsin ?

[ToastedRavs]

Seems Euro is faster too. Anyone concur? Heavier snows move in prior to 12z here, used to be after 12z

[bud2380]

 

just W of DSM-

TUE 06Z 02-FEB   0.7    -3.0    1016      91     100    0.04     551     538    TUE 12Z 02-FEB   0.0    -4.7    1008      89     100    0.25     548     541    TUE 18Z 02-FEB   0.0    -4.1    1003      94      23    0.50     538     536    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -0.3    -5.0    1002      93      54    0.10     533     532    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -4.2    -8.1    1010      85      85    0.03     534     526 

 

Grizz, you mind posting IOW & CID?  We are right on the cutoff over here and I live basically equidistance to both.

Thanks.

[Grizzcoat]

OMA-

TUE 00Z 02-FEB   3.6    -3.2    1014      75      94    0.02     549     538    TUE 06Z 02-FEB   0.9    -3.5    1014      92     100    0.08     549     538    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -0.7    -5.4    1006      89     100    0.34     543     538    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -1.3    -6.7    1004      92      80    0.44     534     531    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -3.1    -7.9    1009      87      97    0.16     533     526    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -5.5    -8.6    1017      81      97    0.03     537     523 

[jcwxguy]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OLU    LAT=  41.45 LON=  -97.33 ELE=  1444
 

                                            00Z JAN31

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
 

MON 18Z 01-FEB   4.2    -2.4    1017      51      82    0.00     549     536    

TUE 00Z 02-FEB   2.3    -3.6    1014      72      98    0.01     548     536    

TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -0.5    -4.7    1014      91     100    0.08     547     536    

TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -2.6    -6.5    1009      87     100    0.27     540     533    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -3.5    -6.6    1009      90      99    0.44     534     527    

WED 00Z 03-FEB  -3.8    -8.0    1013      84      95    0.17     535     524    

WED 06Z 03-FEB  -6.3    -9.3    1020      79      75    0.00     538     523    
 
 

 

[bud2380]

http://i.imgur.com/WDOmyEU.png