February 2016 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

As we approach that last month of meteorological Winter, February looks to open up with a bang as a very large storm system will effect the central states.  Is this a good omen for the remainder of this month???  Long range forecast models are indicating this could be a very wintry month. 

 

Let's Discuss...

 

After the GHD Blizzard III departs, the entire hemispheric pattern is going to change after what was a late January pullback as was expected.  There is a lot going on right now in the atmosphere, including the stratosphere, as well as high latitude blocking that is going to become fully engaged once we get past the 1st week of the month.  February is known to produce some of the coldest/stormiest patterns.  One thing I am following is the Euro's MJO index and what we know about the LRC this year.  We know, the pattern has been favorable to produce an active storm track coming out of the southwest or southern Plains up towards the Lakes/OV region.  

 

The Euro is favoring a Phase 4 MJO right now and you can see that this would create a ridge in the East.  Now, that is not all that bad when you consider all the other variables including a -AO/NAO/-EPO that can overwhelm the cold into the central CONUS which will allow storm systems to ride up the boundary line.  Imagine nature trying to push cold up against a SE ridge???  This could be a phenomenal pattern.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/JFM/combined_image.png

 

 

 

00z EPS 500mb pattern looks great...very different to what we saw last February which was targeting the eastern Lakes/EC.  This is a great sign for an active pattern from say, the Rockies to the Lakes.  Even those that live down in the deep southern Plains have a chance to score some wintry systems to form.

 

Another reason why I think there will be a SW Flow is the SOI has been rising.  It is now in positive territory which promotes ridging in the East.  This fits very well with this year's LRC pattern and 30-day cycle!  There are many signals indicating an active pattern in the central CONUS.  Fun times ahead!

 

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 30 Jan 2016

Average for last 30 days -22.22

Average for last 90 days -11.90

Daily contribution to SOI calculation 2.41
 

[Niko]

As we approach that last month of meteorological Winter, February looks to open up with a bang as a very large storm system will effect the central states.  Is this a good omen for the remainder of this month???  Long range forecast models are indicating this could be a very wintry month. 

 

Let's Discuss...

 

After the GHD Blizzard III departs, the entire hemispheric pattern is going to change after what was a late January pullback as was expected.  There is a lot going on right now in the atmosphere, including the stratosphere, as well as high latitude blocking that is going to become fully engaged once we get past the 1st week of the month.  February is known to produce some of the coldest/stormiest patterns.  One thing I am following is the Euro's MJO index and what we know about the LRC this year.  We know, the pattern has been favorable to produce an active storm track coming out of the southwest or southern Plains up towards the Lakes/OV region.  

 

The Euro is favoring a Phase 4 MJO right now and you can see that this would create a ridge in the East.  Now, that is not all that bad when you consider all the other variables including a -AO/NAO/-EPO that can overwhelm the cold into the central CONUS which will allow storm systems to ride up the boundary line.  Imagine nature trying to push cold up against a SE ridge???  This could be a phenomenal pattern.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/JFM/combined_image.png

 

 

 

00z EPS 500mb pattern looks great...very different to what we saw last February which was targeting the eastern Lakes/EC.  This is a great sign for an active pattern from say, the Rockies to the Lakes.  Even those that live down in the deep southern Plains have a chance to score some wintry systems to form.

 

Another reason why I think there will be a SW Flow is the SOI has been rising.  It is now in positive territory which promotes ridging in the East.  This fits very well with this year's LRC pattern and 30-day cycle!  There are many signals indicating an active pattern in the central CONUS.  Fun times ahead!

 

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 30 Jan 2016

Average for last 30 days -22.22

Average for last 90 days -11.90

Daily contribution to SOI calculation 2.41

 

[winterfreak]

I just keep hearing this and nothing has panned out. Believe it when I see it mode.

[OKwx2k4]

I just keep hearing this and nothing has panned out. Believe it when I see it mode.

Southwesterly flow is our only chance. I take back everytime the last few years I griped about not getting a real snowstorm only swfe. I'd take a good swfe at least before this winter is over.

[Geos]

I think this will be our month. Even during the horrible winter of 11-12, February was rockin' with systems.

 

The MJO struggles to stay in 4 on the GFS. Kind of back and forth. This isn't likely going to be the main driver in February, but will be the other teleconnections Tom mentioned.

 

[winterfreak]

First ten days of the month look rather cold and dry. Something showing up week two hahaha can't believe I'm even saying this.

[Tom]

Here we are at the last 1/3rd of met Winter and much is going on in the world of weather.  Both 30mb/10mb warming is blossoming towards the arctic regions.  The Euro is suggesting the warmest temps ever over the North Pole at +7C!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

 

 

10mb temps have surged...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole10_nh.gif

 

The Euro is suggesting the MJO rolling into the warm phases...SSW is as strong as we have seen, it might even set records.  The models are going to have a devil of a time trying to figure this one out.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

[Snowlover76]

I can't wait for spring to get here.  Ive given up on winter 

[Maxim]

GFS once again backing off on the cold in the med/long range.

[moozarksTim]

I have waited all winter 2015-2016 for winter to get here but it looks like we will go from fall to spring this time around

[winterfreak]

GFS looks bleak in the late long range. Temps look like they'll moderate after this upcoming 7-10 day cool down. By that point climo really starts to against us. Time is running out.

[Tom]

GFS once again backing off on the cold in the med/long range.

GFS backs off while Euro hammers away...hope we somehow get the snow before the cold hits...

[Geos]

Full blown SSW event taking place now.

 

GFS has brought the cold air back in a huge way.

 

 

[winterfreak]

Just screams suppression to me with temps that cold.

[Maxim]

Looks transient though. Pattern gets a little better after that.

[GDR]

[Snowshoe]

There should be a good supply of clippers roll through. Probably wont help KC but should help the Lakes area.

 

Just screams suppression to me with temps that cold.

[Geos]

If the month just holds small, colder systems - I'm fine with that.

 

The likely next system to watch.

 

[earthandturf]

If the month just holds small, colder systems - I'm fine with that.

 

The likely next system to watch.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016020212/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016020212/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

 

 

I just need 2'' at a time to pay the bills. Bring on the clipper train!

[Tom]

If the month just holds small, colder systems - I'm fine with that.

 

The likely next system to watch.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016020212/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016020212/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

Ensembles are showing some interesting members around the Lakes...with another clipper on its heels a couple days later.  I'd like to score a few inches from anyone of these as the cold air settles in.

[Tom]

CPC keeps above normal precip chances near the Lakes over the next 2 weeks...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

[Geos]

Ensembles are showing some interesting members around the Lakes...with another clipper on its heels a couple days later.  I'd like to score a few inches from anyone of these as the cold air settles in.

 

If something like that does happen it will powdery snow probably. Maybe like a 2-4" system.

[Geos]

Really dense fog has formed here. ~100 ft visibility.

[SE Wisconsin]

If something like that does happen it will powdery snow probably. Maybe like a 2-4" system.

Right now, I'd gladly take 2-4". Heck, 1-2" sounds wonderful!

[FV-Mike]

Monday night into Tuesday looks like a good shot at 2-4. Hopefully it works out.

[Tom]

Monday night into Tuesday looks like a good shot at 2-4. Hopefully it works out.

Euro also showing this system...depending on where it tracks, it could bring a period of Lehs for NE IL/SE WI.

[Snowshoe]

Euro also showing this system...depending on where it tracks, it could bring a period of Lehs for NE IL/SE WI.

 

6Z GFS cuts the low off and parks it over Lake Michigan. Drops 6-8 over 2 days.

[Tom]

6Z GFS cuts the low off and parks it over Lake Michigan. Drops 6-8 over 2 days.

Some of the Euro Ensembles look pretty interesting near the Lakes early next week.  EPS mean has a good agreement.  This is a rather peculiar system as the pattern becomes highly amplified.  Prob won't know till later this weekend how this one tracks.  Would be nice to score a few inches from this one.

[Money]

6z had 8-9 across most of WI with this system next week

[jlp]

That would be nice. Its not that far away time wise.   

[Tony]

These clippers will continue to be less and less impressive with each model run. Might as well stick a fork in it as the long range continues to stink and don't see any changes except for some cold thrown in here and there. Boring pattern to say the least.

[Tom]

12z GGEM is pretty decent...

[Money]

The low sits and spins on the eastern side of LM for 36-48 hrs

[Tony]

^ Nice to look at but I have my doubts.

[jcwxguy]

i expect it to start to get more active starting around the 19th or so

[WBadgersW]

Monday-Tuesday definitely looks interesting. If the low sits in Michigan like 06z GFS and 12z GEM, Milwaukee could get some decent lake enhancement.

 

Best part is, its 4ish days away

[Geos]

The low sits and spins on the eastern side of LM for 36-48 hrs

 

That would be awesome. It showing lake enhanced snow.

 

Love the type of systems that cause snow for 24 hours or more.

 

 

[Money]

Euro has a 994 L over northern Minnesota at 96

[Money]

Euro stil has a low along western mi at hr 144 as well

 

How does it look tom?

[Geos]

EURO showing the same low entering the Great Lakes in similar fashion to the GEM at 120 hours.

 

 

That looks perfect for LEhS