February 2016 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Euro stil has a low along western mi at hr 144 as well

 

How does it look tom?

12z Euro...not that impressive...maybe 1-2"...that snow in S/C WI is from the wave going through WI right now...more near the Northwoods and downwind of the Lakes.

[Geos]

Surprised to see it so dry^. That low position with the wind barbs pointed from the NE combined with those cold mid level temps would act to enhance snow.

 

Maybe the 0z run it will pick up on that more.

 

If somehow the low could park over South Bend for awhile, that would give the western shoreline a good shot at lake snows/synoptic snows. Temps in the 20s if not lower and mid levels in the lower teens.

[Tom]

Surprised to see it so dry^. That low position with the wind barbs pointed from the NE combined with those cold mid level temps would act to enhance snow.

 

Maybe the 0z run it will pick up on that more.

Knowing the way the Euro has behaved this season, I'd imagine some changes.  The pattern becomes very amplified so I think models will be off on the placement of the GL Low this far out.

[Geos]

For the heck of it I put up the three models in range of this early week system.

I would wait until Friday PM to make any threads though. These situations are fickle.

 

[Geos]

0z GFS dug the low a bit more. Not quite like the 6z run, but better than the last 2 runs.

[Money]

Yup

 

Showing 4-6 here now with 6+ up towards GB

[Geos]

Yup

 

Showing 4-6 here now with 6+ up towards GB

 

GEM passes the low right over Oshkosh and then down Lake Michigan. Widespread 3-6" amounts.

[Money]

GGEM

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160204/00Z/f168/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Money]

Here was GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160204/00Z/f168/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Geos]

0z tracks. Still in the same general area.

 

[westMJim]

I am back home after spending 10 days in Fort Myers Florida. I have to say I enjoyed the nice warm days (and nights) down there.  We did have a lot of rain there and they set a record for the most rain for any January this year. Now for here in GR when we left we had 6” of snow on the ground well that is now all gone except for the snow piles. It looks more like March then early February. While today we are getting light snow so far its been very light and there is just a trace of snow on the ground. With a temp here now of 28°

[gosaints]

12z GFS looking very GGEM like for sunday and monday

[Tony]

Screw zone for NE IL...pass on this one.

[gosaints]

Screw zone for NE IL...pass on this one.

It probably over doing moisture anyways.  thread the needle type event probably

[gosaints]

GGEM still on board it seems.  Not worth getting excited about where the heavier precip lines up until saturday afternoon

[Geos]

Wow, the GFS went way west. It has the right idea would benefit this area if it dropped down Lake Michigan slowly.

 

The heavier pockets are pretty decent though.

 

 

GGEM.

Showing LES in Chicago.

 

[james1976]

Start a thread?

[midwest buildit]

well i was excited for this clipper. looks like another non event here again though.

[Tom]

Euro still not impressed...

[gosaints]

Euro still not impressed...

I would say equal chances of nothing versus something.  

 

Clipper pattern have sucked all winter.  Got spoiled with good ones the last 2 years.

[Geos]

At least the GFS is trying to dig this low more. Could be the solution that wins out. These system can hold surprises. If anything it will put us back in the winter mood with on and off light snow.

EURO, CMC, GFS, and NAM from north to south.

 

18z NAM takes the low through SE MN and looks like it will dig it quite a ways. If the East Coast low could slow up and migrate a bit west, this low could feed some of the moisture from it back to the west.

[Tom]

I would say equal chances of nothing versus something.  

 

Clipper pattern have sucked all winter.  Got spoiled with good ones the last 2 years.

Without a doubt...this year has been abysmal.  Northern stream has been non existent, only a couple intrusions in January.  Expecting it to make an appearance next week and then maybe the last 7-10 days of the month.  Good thing is, EPS is not really spiking the AO like it did in Dec...more negative/neutral over the next 2 weeks.

[Tom]

Euro Weeklies came in and pretty much line up to this year's LRC.  The AO never pops positive, mostly neutral and the PNA relaxes by the 16th and stays neutral for the remainder of the month.  Around the 22nd, the cold phase of this year's LRC is showing up and that is probably when we will see our final arctic outbreaks of the season that may carry into the 1st week of March.  Nonetheless, the SW Flow kicks into high gear by mid month.  The last 7-10 days of the month are showing a strong signal for storms coming out of the SW.

[Geos]

Euro Weeklies came in and pretty much line up to this year's LRC.  The AO never pops positive, mostly neutral and the PNA relaxes by the 16th and stays neutral for the remainder of the month.  Around the 22nd, the cold phase of this year's LRC is showing up and that is probably when we will see our final arctic outbreaks of the season that may carry into the 1st week of March.  Nonetheless, the SW Flow kicks into high gear by mid month.  The last 7-10 days of the month are showing a strong signal for storms coming out of the SW.

 

Hopefully the cold air supply is there when the SW flow kicks in again.

 

Some decent snow showers entering the area. Might pick up a dusting tonight. Already had one spell of -SN this evening.

[Tom]

Hopefully the cold air supply is there when the SW flow kicks in again.

 

Some decent snow showers entering the area. Might pick up a dusting tonight. Already had one spell of -SN this evening.

When it does, the EPO heads negative and the NW NAMER ridge fires up so we should have the cold air around.  I just hope we score a couple juicy storms before winter closes out.

[Geos]

Going negative in the snowfall departure department now.

 

Season to date.

 

[OKwx2k4]

The gray spot at the bottom of that map is a tad too far south. Lol. I've had 0 snow this year and it looks like that won't change. I doubt I will be back much from here on but it was nice finding this site this year.

[Geos]

Picked up 0.5" of snow last night. Completely unforecasted. Looks more like February.

[jcwxguy]

nice little snow this morning, been snowing about 2 hours,  maybe 1/4 to 1/2 inch, almost enough to cover the nasty looking snow here

[Niko]

Another snowstorm is hitting the EC. NYC expected to receive 3-6inches, while Boston will get 6-10. More snow for them next week.

Hopefully we get some snow. So far, NYC has gotten more snow than SEMI. Although, the NE is the "Hot Zone" for major storms to develop and really dump snow on them.

[Geos]

Looks like NYC proper is going to come up with 2-4". Best radar returns are further east on LI where they are expecting 8-12". Boston expecting double digits - where they've been left out largely this winter.

 

Now, it looks like the Nebraska gang is getting another snow this morning.

[gosaints]

I think boston even.squeezed out over 6 inches in the ec blizzard didnt they?

[Geos]

I think boston even.squeezed out over 6 inches in the ec blizzard didnt they?

 

You're right; 6-8"

I know someone just north of there, and he only got like 3". Sharp cutoff across the metro.

[CentralNebWeather]

We had about another 1" of snow this morning to put on top of our massive amount of snow.  I told students why go skiing in Colorado when you can go down our large mountains of snow here.  The dig out process is extremely slow as the consistency of the snow that drifted in is like concrete.  Top 3 worst blizzards by amount in Holdrege history.  1.  January 1949.  2.  March 1987.  3.  Feb 1-2, 2016  (18 inches)

[Geos]

Wow, you're still digging out CentralNebWeather! You must have massive drifts all over the place.

 

Usually around here, when it snows a lot, you usually don't get buried in your house.

[Geos]

The NAM has a robust band of snow with the cold front early on Monday morning. Wish it was coming through during the daylights hours, sometimes these bands can be impressive to watch.

 

Looking like a general 1-3", few 4" spots if your downwind of a lake. Niko looks to be the exception with 6"+ possible.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Wow, you're still digging out CentralNebWeather! You must have massive drifts all over the place.

 

Usually around here, when it snows a lot, you usually don't get buried in your house.

Been a slow process. Finally got above freezing this afternoon. Still some rural county roads are blocked by massive drifts. Will take a couple more days until things are back to almost normal.

[Iowa2015]

18Z GFS  Interesting the following weekend ice storm +14+ inches of Snow eastern Iowa on eastward.

[hlcater]

18Z GFS  Interesting the following weekend ice storm +14+ inches of Snow eastern Iowa on eastward.

Don't get your hopes up yet. However, EPS has a storm too. Definitely worth watching. But nothing to get excited over.

[Geos]

That system you speak of Iowa2015 is something of note definitely. Just need to keep that cold air around.

Hopefully it will trend into something with more snow than ice.