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February 2016 Observations and Model Discussions for the Pacific Northwest


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The Five Minute Sunrise A couple years ago I shot a sunrise I called "The Ten Minute Sunrise."  The color only lasted ten minutes but it was beautiful. This morning proved even more brief.  The amaz

Absolutely epic sunrise this morning!   It's hard to pick just one photo to show the contrasts and ever changing colors and textures, so here are a few... I was thinking it was going to be a good sun

I'll clutter up the forum again with some more sunrise photos.  These were from yesterday, out in Clark County where the wind was calm.  There weren't high clouds to color the sunrise, but the golden

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Somebody should start a February heat event forecast thread.

 

 

Going to be quite a marine push on Tuesday night.   Stay off the lakes on Tuesday evening people!   Randy... plan to come in from waterskiing by 3 p.m... safety first!

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016020412!!chart.gif

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016020412!!chart.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Going to be quite a marine push on Tuesday night.   Stay off the lakes on Tuesday evening people!   Randy... plan to come in from waterskiing by 3 p.m... safety first!

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016020412!!chart.gif

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016020412!!chart.gif

I will trade in my waterskies for my jetski when the mega push happens...sounds like some awesome wave action for jumping! 

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18Z snow storm almost in fantasy range.

 

 

Fantasy starts at 192 hours and goes out to infinity.   

 

It can't almost be in fantasy range.    

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When can we start talking about fall foliage?  

 

 

Middle of August when dry weather has stressed the trees.

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Middle of August when dry weather has stressed the trees.

 

I have some leaves in yard, not sure if they're from last fall or from disastrously early foliage already turning.  So confusing...

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I have some leaves in yard, not sure if they're from last fall or from disastrously early foliage already turning.  So confusing...

 

 

Assume the latter.   

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To state the obvious:

 

- East coast skiing sucks.

- East coast traffic sucks.

- East coast attitude sucks..people here are rude.

- East coast humidity sucks.

- East coast politics suck.

- East coast surfing sucks, barring the occasional hurricane or nor'easter.

 

We suck. :)

Virginia and north on the attitude and rude part.  We OK down here

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http://www.atmos.washington.edu/marka/bham_herald_jan50/1950-01-19%20January%20Ice%20Pictures.pdf

 

Just for fun while we bore through February. 

 

It's just unbelievable how cold it was that month in Whatcom County. Observing the weather data hourly for Bellingham Herald, it was in the single digits and low teens most of the month. I cannot imagine. 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/marka/bham_herald_jan50/1950-01-26%20Weatherman%20Tells%20How%20Cold.pdf

 

I thought the end of this article was pretty funny. Their wording is interesting when talking about air masses. 

 

https://pauldorpat.com/2012/03/03/seattle-now-then-snowbound-on-second/

 

^ Also a pretty cool article with lots of pictures.

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Has anyone had a problem with (commomly called stinkbugs, not the green ones, the grey type), the large bodied hemiptera (true bugs)? They are herbivores and when the folage comes off the trees in the fall, they make their way indoors. But this year is like nothing I've ever seen. They didn't die off. I've had the box elder bugs (red and black hemipterans) but this group has hung around all winter. I've talked to many friends that have had a similar problem with them this winter here in the N. Willamette Valley. Just wondering if these insects have been a problem in other western locations. Hopefully when the deciduous trees leaf out, they will have something to eat and leave the house.

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It's sad we will only get a couple nice days, but I guess that's kind of like a Springish pattern. A nice day here and there, and rain in between.

 

 

And worse up there than down here.   This pattern is not real friendly to SW BC.

 

Sunday is good example...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_tsfc.60.0000.gif

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.60.0000.gif

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/pcp1.60.0000.gif

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Monday is much better.    Maybe the first 70-degree reading of the year at my location.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_tsfc.84.0000.gif

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Today we are celebrating the one week anniversary of that spectacular 18Z GFS run. Should be getting VERY cold here starting tomorrow unless something has changed.

Today is also the date when the record lows jump way up.

 

Record low at PDX is -3 on 2/2 and jumps up to 25 by next Monday (2/8).   Today is the last day with record lows in the single digits at SEA and PDX.    Most of the record lows starting tomorrow for the rest of the cold season are in the 20s.

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Today we are celebrating the one week anniversary of that spectacular 18Z GFS run. Should be getting VERY cold here starting tomorrow unless something has changed.

 

Today is also the date when the record lows jump way up.

what happened to our epic marine push that was going to happen on Tuesday?
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Has anyone had a problem with (commomly called stinkbugs, not the green ones, the grey type), the large bodied hemiptera (true bugs)? They are herbivores and when the folage comes off the trees in the fall, they make their way indoors. But this year is like nothing I've ever seen. They didn't die off. I've had the box elder bugs (red and black hemipterans) but this group has hung around all winter. I've talked to many friends that have had a similar problem with them this winter here in the N. Willamette Valley. Just wondering if these insects have been a problem in other western locations. Hopefully when the deciduous trees leaf out, they will have something to eat and leave the house.

 

Yep, I found two of them in my house yesterday.  Was thinking the same thing,  that it's a bit unusual to see them in the dead months.

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Today we are celebrating the one week anniversary of that spectacular 18Z GFS run. Should be getting VERY cold here starting tomorrow unless something has changed.

 

Today is also the date when the record lows jump way up.

 

Record low at PDX is -3 on 2/2 and jumps up to 25 by next Monday (2/8).   Today is the last day with record lows in the single digits at SEA and PDX.    Most of the record lows starting tomorrow for the rest of the cold season are in the 20s.

 

Cherry-picked stat. If we got an airmass of the same caliber as early February 1950 six days later (with snowcover around) it would still likely be well into the single digits if not around zero.

 

More a quirk of history than some sort of massive change in our average climate over a 144 hour span. :lol:

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Has anyone had a problem with (commomly called stinkbugs, not the green ones, the grey type), the large bodied hemiptera (true bugs)? They are herbivores and when the folage comes off the trees in the fall, they make their way indoors. But this year is like nothing I've ever seen. They didn't die off. I've had the box elder bugs (red and black hemipterans) but this group has hung around all winter. I've talked to many friends that have had a similar problem with them this winter here in the N. Willamette Valley. Just wondering if these insects have been a problem in other western locations. Hopefully when the deciduous trees leaf out, they will have something to eat and leave the house.

 

I haven't noticed, but they were all over when we were out in Stevenson. I guess they wreak havoc on some of the Hood River orchards.

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Cherry-picked stat. If we got an airmass of the same caliber as early February 1950 six days later (with snowcover around) it would still likely be well into the single digits if not around zero.

 

More a quirk of history than some sort of massive change in our average climate over a 144 hour span. :lol:

But we have not gotten an air mass like 1950 later than this point since then. Probably a reason for that dramatic change in the record lows... because they don't go back down.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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But we have not gotten an air mass like 1950 later than this point.    Probably a reason for that dramatic change in the record lows... because they don't go back down.

 

Yeah, they call this the transition from winter to spring. It's caused by a rising sun angle, increased day length, and more importantly the appearance of garden supplies at your local Costco. ;)

 

Joking aside, all other climate factors remaining equal (which they haven't with gradual warming) you would see a much smoother rise of record lows over that period, though, if you kept records for long enough.

 

Case in point, some of the older Seattle and Portland metro area stations have record lows in the teens and single digits all throughout February.

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Yeah, they call this the transition from winter to spring. It's caused by a rising sun angle, increased day length, and more importantly the appearance of garden supplies at your local Costco. ;)

 

All other climate factors remaining equal (which they haven't with gradual warming) you would see a much smoother rise of record lows over that period, though, if you kept records for long enough.

 

Case in point, some of the older Seattle and Portland metro area stations have record lows in the teens and single digits all throughout February.

Warming climate and UHI?

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Yes, I mentioned that.

 

Just a few more years until that's not a problem any more according to Phil. Just don't pull up any of his old posts when it doesn't happen. :)

I added UHI as well. Could be a factor.

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Today we are celebrating the one week anniversary of that spectacular 18Z GFS run. Should be getting VERY cold here starting tomorrow unless something has changed.

 

Today is also the date when the record lows jump way up.

 

Record low at PDX is -3 on 2/2 and jumps up to 25 by next Monday (2/8).   Today is the last day with record lows in the single digits at SEA and PDX.    Most of the record lows starting tomorrow for the rest of the cold season are in the 20s.

 

Downtown Portland's first record low in the 20s is on February 20. Much more representative of our climo, which states we can still see pretty extensive arctic events well into February. 

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But we have not gotten an air mass like 1950 later than this point since then. Probably a reason for that dramatic change in the record lows... because they don't go back down.

 

There's no special reason why February 5 is a hard cut-off date. Things don't magically transform overnight with regards to climo. 

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There's no special reason why February 5 is a hard cut-off date. Things don't magically transform overnight with regards to climo. 

 

Exactly. Like I said, it's more a quirk of our period of record if anything. A longer period of record would show a less abrupt rise.

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It's pretty horrible. I was hoping for one more nice year before the flip to -PDO and La Nina.

 

Moving is always an option. You live in SW British Columbia. Literally one of the rainiest places on earth. Rain should not be surprising.

 

Also, hoping for three consecutive driest and warmest years on record isn't very reasonable. Things have to flip back at some point.

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Stuffradio, I think Kelowna or thereabouts would be a nice climate for you. Anywhere in the Okanogan. You wouldn't even have to leave British Columbia to live in a place with the warmest summers in Canada, on average. Winters may be too cold to support tropical vegetation, though. That is one downside for you.

 

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_normals/results_1981_2010_e.html?stnID=1001&lang=e&province=BC&provSubmit=go&page=76&dCode=

 

You seem to like snow, though. You would definitely get more of that.

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It's pretty horrible. I was hoping for one more nice year before the flip to -PDO and La Nina.

Going to be a warm spring and summer this year. I am not even sure next year will be too bad. Low solar seems to enhance our seasons. Warmer summers and colder winters.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Stuffradio, I think Kelowna or thereabouts would be a nice climate for you. Anywhere in the Okanogan. You wouldn't even have to leave British Columbia to live in a place with the warmest summers in Canada, on average. Winters may be too cold to support tropical vegetation, though. That is one downside for you.

 

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_normals/results_1981_2010_e.html?stnID=1001&lang=e&province=BC&provSubmit=go&page=76&dCode=

 

You seem to like snow, though. You would definitely get more of that.

 

Kelowna is in an awesome location. Beautiful geography and climate.  

 

Would love to live there, I am not sure what the economy is like there though. 

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Going to be a warm spring and summer this year. I am not even sure next year will be too bad. Low solar seems to enhance our seasons. Warmer summers and colder winters.

I think a warm spring overall is likely (although dry is not a guarantee).

 

Summer may be on the warm side, but closer to average than the last three.

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I think a warm spring overall is likely (although dry is not a guarantee).

 

Summer may be on the warm side, but closer to average than the last three.

 

 

That is not hard to do... warm and drier than average from March - May is very likely.     And it should be another great summer overall.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I like that the 12Z EURO has us back in sub-0c 850s by day 6. Then it puts us in a decent mountain snow pattern beyond that.

 

Yeah... this is not bad for the mountains.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2016020512!!chart.gif

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Kelowna is in an awesome location. Beautiful geography and climate.

 

Would love to live there, I am not sure what the economy is like there though.

Probably OK but as with most provincial places all the good (read that as public service) jobs go to the locals. I guess a bit of tourism(shitty service jobs) and maybe some highly specialized mining jobs could be within a (im)migrants grasp. So really Americans wit degreees/careers are out of luck in moving to Canada and getting a good job unless they move to Toronto.

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