Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Time for a Part II.We're almost there. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Whew! I thought I was banned!! For saying I was drunk, which I still am. I couldn't quote the individual (i believe was Geos) asking about how chaotic it is in Iowa. It is. The night before Caucus night is our now unofficial Mardi Gras. We send all the politicians and media home. THanks goodness! I won't go in to who I met and talked with tonight, but we all are glad to get rid of the media and lying politicians on both sides outta here. Unfortunately...they are invading one of my favorite bars so I had to put up with them tonight...and was unavailable for my expertise and stellar meteorolgoy knowledge...but I did tell this politician who doesn't take crap; what I do and HE said he appreciated me and hope I get to keep my job....but regardless..drunk or not drunk...glad I can still post here. I enjoy the winter banter...nto here in severe season b/c I am out in the field...but alas, all is good that ends well. Give me 5 to 8 inches, like any woman would want, and I, and she, woould be happy. Cheers, bring on the caucus and the blizzard...the media not happy about staying longer in Iowa...but as a former media member, I say screw em....spend your little income here in Iowa! Go USA and go BLIZZARd 2016....and GO anyone that believes what I believe 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 I would've never have guessed your intoxicated from your ramblings.... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 I would've never have guessed your intoxicated from your ramblings.... You mean "YOU'RE" not your. Drunk and still gramatically correct, somewhat! Booyah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Curveballs on the 6z guidance already Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Wagons N on 06Z GFS-- S.IA gets the shaft... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 So much for things being.locked in. MSP for the kill? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Could someone post the 0z euro snowfall map showing all of Nebraska? I fell asleep before the euro started? Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 My gut tells me the Euro is wrong-- and that 06z nam and gfs are onto something. Also been watching the RAP and HRRR -- it seems it's jogging N. Hope I'am wrong (cuz I would get the shaft) ,, but this makes the most sense to me, even if I dont like it. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 and that is why I don't work at the NWS--OMA disco- ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...MOVG THE CYCLONE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY AND ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS ON TUESDAY THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE PROFILES THAT ARE IMPORTANT TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE SYSTEM WAS FINALLY SAMPLED AT 00Z OVER CA WITH A 115 KT H25 JET LOCATED IN SRN CA WITH H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 150 TO 160 M NOTED. AS NOTED BY WPC WE PREFER A 00Z EC/GFS ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARED A TOUCH TO QUICK AND WE STILL BELIEVE A BIT TO FAR NORTH. THE 00Z EC/GFES APPEARS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN AT TOUCH AND MOV IMPORTANT FEATURES A BIT SOUTH. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Check out the differences between E pottawattimie COunty (just E of OMA) and W Cass Cty in SW IA in the NWS Grids. E Pott from the OMA NWS has total 6-10. East of there as 6-14" in Cass Cty forecast by NWS DMX. Not on the same page.....?? Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Took'em long enough --- 5:16AM (ALWAYS the LATEST) but at least DMX wrote a nice disco and made me feel a tad better-- SOUNDINGS QUICKLY BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED B/T 03-06Z OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA AND B/T 06-09Z FURTHER NORTH. VERY POTENT 300MB JET PLACES IOWA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION PROVIDING PLENTY OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN 06-18Z TUESDAY. ONE OTHER THING TO NOTE...SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST AN ABOVE FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TONIGHT BUT THE FORCING WITHIN THE DGZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO COOL THE COLUMN AND KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF IOWA. THE BEST CROSS SECTION TO SHOW THE SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE EPV AND THETA-E DECREASING WITH HEIGHT EXTENDS FROM NW IOWA TO NE MISSOURI. LARGE CROSS HAIR OF OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ B/T 09-15Z WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING B/T 600-650MB AS WELL AS B/T 700-750MB SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY BANDED SNOW DURING THIS TIME IN THE WARNING AREAS. PLUS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE UVM...700-500MB LAPSE RATES MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 6.0 TO 7.5 C/KM AND 50-100 MB RESPECTIVELY. THIS IS LIKELY ENOUGH TO RELEASE CSI AND CAUSE SOME BRIEF STINTS OF THUNDERSNOW TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD 6-12 INCH BAND IS ANTICIPATED...EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED SPOTS TO SEE NEAR 15 WITHIN THE TSSN REGION. THIS ROUGHLY FROM DES MOINES TO CARROLL EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH AMES TO IOWA FALLS/MARSHALLTOWN...AND MAYBE AS FAR EAST AS WATERLOO. EXPECTING SNOWFALL RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES WITH OVER 3 INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educatorjen Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 No more Blizzard Watch for Omaha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Back North?? We will see what 12z says bout that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Snowball Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Snowlover is going to have a meltdown when he awakes! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 What a s#!+ show! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Snowlover is going to have a meltdown when he awakes!Nah. I'm over it. This ones a flop here. Glad the NWS in Omaha sees what I'm seeing and they dropped the blizzard watch. I imagine they drop us to an advisory as the days goes on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Nah. I'm over it. This ones a flop here. Glad the NWS in Omaha sees what I'm seeing and they dropped the blizzard watch. I imagine they drop us to an advisory as the days goes on. Even the 6z GFS with its NW shift has you in the 6-10" range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 I have become the rain/snow line. Anything can happen. projected snowfall for my area is 2-8. DVN is playing it safe and going with ~4. and a WWA. I guess if the Rain?snow line goes south. They uprgrade and if it goes north they are covered. I don't think they want to bust. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 00z euro para Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Nah. I'm over it. This ones a flop here. Glad the NWS in Omaha sees what I'm seeing and they dropped the blizzard watch. I imagine they drop us to an advisory as the days goes on.Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Nah. I'm over it. This ones a flop here. Glad the NWS in Omaha sees what I'm seeing and they dropped the blizzard watch. I imagine they drop us to an advisory as the days goes on.Read their discussion. They believe the GFS IS TOO FAR NORTH and are siding with the euro and ensembles which dumps on us. Just because they're not going with a blizzard warning has nothing to do with amounts. It has to do with winds and visibility. You can have a frickin blizzard warning with 1" of snow forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 How's Eagle River, WI looking for this one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 12z nam has started Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160201/12Z/f12/sfcconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160201/12Z/f18/sfcconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 How's Eagle River, WI looking for this one?To early to say if the NW shift is real or not for WI. Here was the 06z NAM/GFS...06z GEFS looking better up there. CentralNeb/E NE are absolutely crushed on the Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Through hour 23 I am getting pasted by the 12z nam. Looks a little farther north ( I don't think by much) but I will have to compare when it ends Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 new is slightly slower Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 new is slightly slowerThat is what I noticed. Is it more amped? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160201/12Z/f24/sfcconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Nebraska does really well so far on the 12z nam. Yes even eastern Nebraska. It is at hour 28 and still coming down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160201/12Z/f27/sfcconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 12z NAM is saying this is going to be a MSP special now...oh the curve balls... 00z EPS showing the clusters in KS and IA... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160201/12Z/f30/sfcconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 def less qpf over eastern nebraska this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160201/12Z/f33/sfcconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 12z NAM is saying this is going to be a MSP special now...oh the curve balls... 00z EPS showing the clusters in KS and IA...if the nw ones verify, that wouldnt be good for here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160201/12Z/f36/sfcmw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 through hr 36 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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