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Ground Hog Day Blizzard/Snowstorm Part II


Geos

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EURO was just south of where the NAM is now. Would be something if it stays the same.

 

Low is going to come out near Roswell.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Geos, so you think we could squeeze 2-3" on the backside Wed. morning? Sure would be welcome, it's been a lean year for plowing.

 

Yeah, with this type of system setup it looks like a decent shot at that. Every model is showing it in the general area.

 

When system start occluding, the low elongate out from top to bottom and moisture likes to collect along that axis as the surface low departs. Seen it before.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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MSP went WS warning for 6 counties (minus Anoka cty) from nothing. I expect the reverse on the S side of this system. Thanks Mr. El Nino.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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You know what's funny...

The RGEM is the furthest north. :lol:

But it is the coldest model and seeing where the low is starting to form in NM it would start off on the right foot.

 

post-7-0-99068000-1454351068_thumb.jpg

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK LAT= 40.85 LON= -96.75 ELE= 1188

 

12Z FEB01

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

MON 12Z 01-FEB -2.3 -0.2 1016 74 34 0.00 550 537

MON 18Z 01-FEB 5.1 -1.5 1017 48 77 0.00 551 537

TUE 00Z 02-FEB 3.4 -2.6 1014 72 95 0.01 550 539

TUE 06Z 02-FEB 2.6 -2.1 1012 80 100 0.04 550 540

TUE 12Z 02-FEB 0.3 -5.0 1002 92 100 0.35 542 540

TUE 18Z 02-FEB 0.2 -2.9 998 95 66 0.60 530 532

WED 00Z 03-FEB -1.6 -5.1 1002 93 98 0.20 531 529

WED 06Z 03-FEB -4.3 -9.4 1012 85 72 0.08 533 524

 

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OLU LAT= 41.45 LON= -97.33 ELE= 1444

 

12Z FEB01

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

MON 12Z 01-FEB -3.4 -1.0 1016 69 27 0.00 548 535

MON 18Z 01-FEB 4.6 -1.9 1017 50 57 0.00 550 536

TUE 00Z 02-FEB 3.2 -2.6 1015 66 96 0.00 549 537

TUE 06Z 02-FEB 1.3 -3.0 1014 89 100 0.05 548 537

TUE 12Z 02-FEB -0.2 -5.5 1006 89 98 0.12 542 537

TUE 18Z 02-FEB -2.2 -6.9 1003 94 94 0.80 531 529

WED 00Z 03-FEB -3.2 -8.2 1006 89 98 0.17 531 526

WED 06Z 03-FEB -5.2 -8.9 1014 83 86 0.04 534 522

WED 12Z 03-FEB -8.0 -9.4 1020 83 59 0.00 536 520

 

 

 

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No matter how good any model is (short or long term) they simply can not handle this type of event. Way- WAY to many variables involved in the math/physics to figure this out. A super computer on par with the EURO,, can figure it out-- but it would take right up to the point of verification for it to be correct. The physics/math in atmosphere physics = near infinite variables . To think we can figure it out-- think again. It's like Mother Nature says--- screw you human,, I run the show. Fun to watch nature win every time no matter how good we think we our. We are no match against the Creator.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OMA LAT= 41.30 LON= -95.90 ELE= 981

 

12Z FEB01

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

MON 12Z 01-FEB -3.3 -0.9 1017 86 21 0.00 549 536

MON 18Z 01-FEB 4.8 -1.7 1018 54 40 0.00 551 536

TUE 00Z 02-FEB 4.6 -1.9 1015 65 91 0.00 550 538

TUE 06Z 02-FEB 2.9 -2.0 1014 81 100 0.04 550 539

TUE 12Z 02-FEB 0.7 -3.7 1005 89 100 0.24 544 540

TUE 18Z 02-FEB 0.8 -2.8 999 92 37 0.52 533 533

WED 00Z 03-FEB -0.4 -3.0 1001 92 83 0.11 531 531

WED 06Z 03-FEB -3.6 -8.4 1009 85 80 0.08 532 525

 

 

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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OSH LAT= 43.98 LON= -88.55 ELE= 807

 

12Z FEB01

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

MON 12Z 01-FEB -4.8 -4.2 1014 90 37 0.00 540 528

MON 18Z 01-FEB -1.4 -3.3 1018 87 67 0.00 542 528

TUE 00Z 02-FEB -0.4 -4.2 1019 90 27 0.00 545 530

TUE 06Z 02-FEB -4.5 -4.1 1021 98 9 0.00 550 533

TUE 12Z 02-FEB -5.7 -3.6 1022 95 17 0.00 552 534

TUE 18Z 02-FEB -0.4 -4.2 1016 92 100 0.02 551 538

WED 00Z 03-FEB 0.3 -5.6 1007 93 95 0.36 547 541

WED 06Z 03-FEB -0.2 -0.6 1001 95 23 0.13 538 537

WED 12Z 03-FEB -2.3 -4.3 1000 91 96 0.04 531 531

WED 18Z 03-FEB

THU 00Z 04-FEB

THU 06Z 04-FEB -6.9 -16.5 1020 82 19 533 518

THU 12Z 04-FEB -12.6 -13.9 1024 83 45 0.00 531 512

 

 

 

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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: VTI LAT= 42.22 LON= -92.02 ELE= 846

 

12Z FEB01

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

MON 12Z 01-FEB -4.8 -2.3 1016 94 29 0.00 547 534

MON 18Z 01-FEB 4.2 -2.2 1018 69 24 0.00 549 534

TUE 00Z 02-FEB 1.4 -2.2 1018 76 14 0.00 551 536

TUE 06Z 02-FEB 0.1 -2.3 1019 86 80 0.01 552 537

TUE 12Z 02-FEB 0.5 -3.1 1014 85 98 0.05 551 540

TUE 18Z 02-FEB 0.9 -4.9 1006 87 99 0.29 547 542

WED 00Z 03-FEB 1.1 0.1 1000 94 38 0.16 537 537

WED 06Z 03-FEB 0.4 -1.9 999 96 99 0.04 533 534

WED 12Z 03-FEB -2.4 -7.0 1005 87 85 0.14 530 526

WED 18Z 03-FEB

THU 00Z 04-FEB

THU 06Z 04-FEB -13.6 -10.3 1026 81 39 535 515

 

 

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You know what's funny...

The RGEM is the furthest north. :lol:

But it is the coldest model and seeing where the low is starting to form in NM it would start off on the right foot.

 

attachicon.gifGHD III tracks Monday12z.jpg

I saw this but what implications, if any, would come from this. Guessing it still would eventually take the same track but maybe come in a tad colder.

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Snowing for awhile here.  .8 mile  visibility and this isn't even the main event.  Ground is covered.  I think we are finishing school but all activities after school are cancelled and no school on Tuesday and they said be prepared for no school on Wednesday.   I wasn't expecting much snow this early but I will take it before the biggie.

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EURO is actually the furthest south to the east.

Going to start plotting the actual low track to see which model gets it mostly right.

It repeats what the RGEM is doing to the west.

 

post-7389-0-34207900-1454353260.png

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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also part of the reason why they didn't issue a blizzard warning. snow isn't going to blow around that easily

Tough to get a Blizzard in an major urban area. MPX  has not had one that included urban areas in decades.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Snowing like crazy here.  A little bit ago it was down to 1/2 mile visibility.  So far I would say it is overperforming from what I expected.  I just thought some light snow later in the afternoon.  Many students that live in the country have already left that either drive or were picked up by their parents.  

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