SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 This time last year I had about 3" of snow on the ground. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Interesting image: http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x398_01162005_screen-shot-2014-01-16-at-3.05.29-pm.png Looks terrible, even more pathetic down in Oregon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Interesting image: http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x398_01162005_screen-shot-2014-01-16-at-3.05.29-pm.png It's days like today when you really get an idea of how strange things have been. Great view of the foothills and such to the east and the only visible snow cover is on Mt. Hood and St. Helens. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Well? What did you think Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Well? What did you think It was a good movie. I've developed a Jennifer Lawrence fixation because of it. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 00z GFS not backing off. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 It was a good movie. I've developed a Jennifer Lawrence fixation because of it. Exactly! it is like we mind melded there for a moment. 00z GFS not backing off.Definitely not. Very low snow levels and FEET of mountain snow. Excellent! Ridge axis 160 W, 150-155 would be better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 00z GFS not backing off. Yeah... but its a bunch of -4 to -6C stuff. Not likely to mean much for the lowlands. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 It was a good movie. I've developed a Jennifer Lawrence fixation because of it. as far as fixations go, you could do worse. 0z Gfs continuing its trend, chilly and damp, maybe some snow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Now, let's see the GEM and/or EURO get on board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yeah... but its a bunch of -4C stuff. Not likely to mean much for the lowlands.Still lots of time for improvement! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 GFS is way too aggressive at the moment. Just sayin'... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 00Z Canadian is not looking like the ridge will collapse as easily as the GFS at 144 hours. And the ECMWF is boring through 240 hours. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 00z GFS says 2-3' of snow at my house... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 00Z Canadian is not looking like the ridge will collapse as easily as the GFS at 144 hours. And the ECMWF is boring through 240 hours. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpgCanadian at least flattened the out of the ridge... and, you must be referring to the 12z EC? 00z hasn't begun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 GEM flattens the ridge by day 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yeah... but its a bunch of -4 to -6C stuff. Not likely to mean much for the lowlands. At this point I just care about my backyard. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 GFS is way too aggressive at the moment. Just sayin'... You think.....I am having a hard time ignoring this for the time being. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2014011812_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 At this point I just care about my backyard. We couldn't tell. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 We couldn't tell. Yep, I've been told my **** the world attitude is quite endearing. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 You think.....I am having a hard time ignoring this for the time being. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2014011812_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png Toasty! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yep, I've been told my **** the world attitude is quite endearing. LOL. No intervention.... Yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yep, I've been told my **** the world attitude is quite endearing. You're ready for match.com. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 You're ready for match.com. Have I mentioned that I LOVE your avatar? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Have I mentioned that I LOVE your avatar? Everyone loves an underdog! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Ensembles are out! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 The 0z GFS is close to being great. As it is...not too shabby. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Ensembles are out!yep, warmest one of the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Euro looks ridgy through 72 hours. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Euro Yeah, I'd rather look at various pics of a turd sandwich, including different angles and zoomed views. Well, not really no. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yeah, I'd rather look at various pics of a turd sandwich, including different angles and zoomed views. Well, not really no.Yucky. God D**n dude. Do they even make a turd sandwich? Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yucky. God D**n dude. Do they even make a turd sandwich?Ummm, lmao I'm not sure. I am very hesitant if not refuse to google such a thing..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 I think the GFS is firing up the Aleutian ridge too quickly. The GGEM ensembles are trending towards the ECMWF ens solution..and frankly, the tropics just aren't there yet. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 A foggy end to the month as per the 00Z Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 I think a lot of people have been talking about the late January/early Feburary time frame. I think KVUO snowman said something about it way back at the beginning of December. I have been saying it since December as well. Rather than portraying those who have been making the call as rogue geniuses, I would say it is more accurate to acknowledge that something around this time frame has been the general consensus of the entire forum for quite some time.The difference is, you and many on the forum don’t put in the time and work to come up with your “tallking about the end of January/early February”. BigMack has spent dozens of hours reading and studying long range forecasting, particularly with the MJO over the past couple of months to carefully come up with a hunch for the end of jan/early feb. If you deserved any credit for anything, I’m sure people would give it to you, but you don’t... ever. That being said, I’m not sold on a great pattern hitting us at the end of the month. It would appear that we’re looking at a January 2002 at best, which would be great for the North Sound. For places south of Skagit County and below 1000 feet, not great. None of this will matter if the Seahawks lose tonight to the 49ers. I’m sticking with my predicting, as reads below 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 The fog and low clouds are back in force. Currently 32 with dense fog here. Going to be a cold and gray week for most places in the lowlands. FWIW worth the CFS has been coming up with some decent runs lately and the current one is the best yet showing the entire month of February being cold, with the second half especially cold. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Interesting image: Wow. Wasn't it reported that the continental US has had the most snow cover this winter than in the last 11 years? #PNWProblems Something's gotta give. I've got a good feeling about next winter. After 5 dud winters in a row for my hometown, it's gotta happen soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 The difference is, you and many on the forum don’t put in the time and work to come up with your “tallking about the end of January/early February”. BigMack has spent dozens of hours reading and studying long range forecasting, particularly with the MJO over the past couple of months to carefully come up with a hunch for the end of jan/early feb. If you deserved any credit for anything, I’m sure people would give it to you, but you don’t... ever. That being said, I’m not sold on a great pattern hitting us at the end of the month. It would appear that we’re looking at a January 2002 at best, which would be great for the North Sound. For places south of Skagit County and below 1000 feet, not great. None of this will matter if the Seahawks lose tonight to the 49ers. I’m sticking with my predicting, as reads below So... it the Seahawks lose then all life stops and nothing matters?? You better prepare yourself for that possibility. The Niners are playing REALLY good right now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 So... it the Seahawks lose then all life stops and nothing matters?? You better prepare yourself for that possibility. The Niners are playing REALLY good right now.Which is exactly what they were doing in week 16 last year, and week 2 this year when they came to Seattle. And by the way, if the Seahawks lose, I’m booking a ticket from Bellingham to Honolulu ASAP... So yeah, life stops and nothing matters if they lose, until I hit the beach and feel what real life is again. 38.2*F here. Hasn’t gone below 36 throughout this entire shitversion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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