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January 2014 in the PNW


TT-SEA

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This time last year I had about 3" of snow on the ground. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Interesting image:

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x398_01162005_screen-shot-2014-01-16-at-3.05.29-pm.png

 

It's days like today when you really get an idea of how strange things have been.  Great view of the foothills and such to the east and the only visible snow cover is on Mt. Hood and St. Helens.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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00z GFS not backing off.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Guest Monty67

It was a good movie.  I've developed a Jennifer Lawrence fixation because of it.

as far as fixations go, you could do worse.

 

0z Gfs continuing its trend, chilly and damp, maybe some snow?

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00Z Canadian is not looking like the ridge will collapse as easily as the GFS at 144 hours.

 

And the ECMWF is boring through 240 hours.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00z GFS says 2-3' of snow at my house...;)

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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00Z Canadian is not looking like the ridge will collapse as easily as the GFS at 144 hours.

 

And the ECMWF is boring through 240 hours.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

Canadian at least flattened the out of the ridge... and, you must be referring to the 12z EC? 00z hasn't begun.

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Yeah... but its a bunch of -4 to -6C stuff.    Not likely to mean much for the lowlands.   

 

At this point I just care about my backyard.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We couldn't tell.  

 

Yep, I've been told my **** the world attitude is quite endearing. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Share on other sites

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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You're ready for match.com.  

 

Have I mentioned that I LOVE your avatar? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Ensembles are out!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The 0z GFS is close to being great. As it is...not too shabby.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I think the GFS is firing up the Aleutian ridge too quickly. The GGEM ensembles are trending towards the ECMWF ens solution..and frankly, the tropics just aren't there yet.

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I think a lot of people have been talking about the late January/early Feburary time frame. I think KVUO snowman said something about it way back at the beginning of December. I have been saying it since December as well.

 

Rather than portraying those who have been making the call as rogue geniuses, I would say it is more accurate to acknowledge that something around this time frame has been the general consensus of the entire forum for quite some time.

The difference is, you and many on the forum don’t put in the time and work to come up with your “tallking about the end of January/early February”. BigMack has spent dozens of hours reading and studying long range forecasting, particularly with the MJO over the past couple of months to carefully come up with a hunch for the end of jan/early feb. If you deserved any credit for anything, I’m sure people would give it to you, but you don’t... ever. 

 

That being said, I’m not sold on a great pattern hitting us at the end of the month.  It would appear that we’re looking at a January 2002 at best, which would be great for the North Sound. For places south of Skagit County and below 1000 feet, not great.

 

None of this will matter if the Seahawks lose tonight to the 49ers. I’m sticking with my predicting, as reads below B)  

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The fog and low clouds are back in force. Currently 32 with dense fog here. Going to be a cold and gray week for most places in the lowlands.

 

FWIW worth the CFS has been coming up with some decent runs lately and the current one is the best yet showing the entire month of February being cold, with the second half especially cold.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The difference is, you and many on the forum don’t put in the time and work to come up with your “tallking about the end of January/early February”. BigMack has spent dozens of hours reading and studying long range forecasting, particularly with the MJO over the past couple of months to carefully come up with a hunch for the end of jan/early feb. If you deserved any credit for anything, I’m sure people would give it to you, but you don’t... ever. 

 

That being said, I’m not sold on a great pattern hitting us at the end of the month.  It would appear that we’re looking at a January 2002 at best, which would be great for the North Sound. For places south of Skagit County and below 1000 feet, not great.

 

None of this will matter if the Seahawks lose tonight to the 49ers. I’m sticking with my predicting, as reads below B)  

 

 

So... it the Seahawks lose then all life stops and nothing matters??

 

You better prepare yourself for that possibility.    The Niners are playing REALLY good right now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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So... it the Seahawks lose then all life stops and nothing matters??

 

You better prepare yourself for that possibility.    The Niners are playing REALLY good right now.

Which is exactly what they were doing in week 16 last year, and week 2 this year when they came to Seattle.

 

And by the way, if the Seahawks lose, I’m booking a ticket from Bellingham to Honolulu ASAP... So yeah, life stops and nothing matters if they lose, until I hit the beach and feel what real life is again.  

 

38.2*F here. Hasn’t gone below 36 throughout this entire shitversion. 

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