TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Which is exactly what they were doing in week 16 last year, and week 2 this year when they came to Seattle. And by the way, if the Seahawks lose, I’m booking a ticket from Bellingham to Honolulu ASAP... So yeah, life stops and nothing matters if they lose, until I hit the beach and feel what real life is again. 38.2*F here. Hasn’t gone below 36 throughout this entire shitversion. We are heading to Hawaii in about 3 weeks. We will miss almost half of February! I hope nature throws everything at the PNW in that time frame and we miss every minute of it. At this point... I would not care if we get a foot of snow at our house while we are soaking up the sun on the beach in Hawaii. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 The 12Z GFS takes away all the fun in the long range. Until you have the ECMWF on board within 240 hours you have absolutely nothing. Its just noise to compare GFS runs and ensembles in the long range when the ECMWF doesn't show anything. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Could we move the sports posts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 We are heading to Hawaii in about 3 weeks. We will miss almost half of February! I hope nature throws everything at the PNW in that time frame and we miss every minute of it. At this point... I would not care if we get a foot of snow at our house while we are soaking up the sun on the beach in Hawaii. I don't understand. You can soak the sun anytime there, why would you want to miss the snow at home? Ahh Tim I thought you were a true snow lover. <_> Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 I don't understand. You can soak the sun anytime there, why would you want to miss the snow at home? Ahh Tim I thought you were a true snow lover. <_> I am more of a November - January snow lover. My thoughts turn toward spring by February. Human nature. The whole family is so excited to get to Hawaii. I am hoping its horrible here while we are gone... to get some of what I know is coming this spring out of the way. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 There are moderators on this forum. I don't see the issue with the occasional sports post. I've seen many non-weather posts (often insults) made by the same posters who are complaining about the sports posts. If you have an issue with a post, simply hit the report button or contact iFred personally. It's quite simple, and iFred has (unfortunately) had to repeat this many, many times to some posters. We should follow the protocol asked of us, out of courtesy for the administration on the forum. I think it's great that iFred has set up a haven for us weather nerds, and we should all show our appreciation by being a little less disrespectful to one another within the thread. He isn't getting paid to weed out whiny posts; cleaning out the unnecessarily whiny posts about forum administration sure isn't how I would want to spend my off-time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 late 2019 early 2020. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 late 2019 early 2020. You'd think so given the ice age will be in full swing by then. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 By then we may have had an accumulating snowfall in January. I'm sure we'll have had several more snow events in March and April. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Are the ensembles out for the 12z yet? Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 You'd think so given the ice age will be in full swing by then. True. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Are the ensembles out for the 12z yet? A few good ones in the long range... most don't show anything close to lowland snow or cold. No consensus. Ensemble mean show ridge gets established to far WEST this time around. Follow the ECMWF... it will tell you when you can start paying attention. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 I am more of a November - January snow lover. My thoughts turn toward spring by February. Human nature. The whole family is so excited to get to Hawaii. I am hoping its horrible here while we are gone... to get some of what I know is coming this spring out of the way.I somehow think, a part of you would be disappointed if you missed a quality arctic snow event, even if it happened in February. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Ensembles are a little better than last night...Don't stop believing! Got down to 24 here this morning! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 I somehow think, a part of you would be disappointed if you missed a quality arctic snow event, even if it happened in February. I would be! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 I am more of a November - January snow lover. My thoughts turn toward spring by February. Human nature. The whole family is so excited to get to Hawaii. I am hoping its horrible here while we are gone... to get some of what I know is coming this spring out of the way. I agree. After the first few days of February, there's a bit of an asterisk feel to it. Kind of like September heatwaves. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 I agree. After the first few days of February, there's a bit of an asterisk feel to it. Kind of like September heatwaves. If there's cold offshore flow to accompany it, there's never an asterisk feel to it. Events like February 19, 1993 and March 1, 1989 don't feel any lamer because they're late in the season. Key is you actually need arctic air. Wet stuff doesn't get it done, except maybe in the very middle of the cold season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 If there's cold offshore flow to accompany it, there's never an asterisk feel to it. Events like February 19, 1993 and March 1, 1989 don't feel any lamer because they're late in the season. Key is you actually need arctic air. Wet stuff doesn't get it done, except maybe in the very middle of the cold season. I disagree, but it's an eye of the beholder kind of thing. Sure, there may be an occasional event which negates the affects of the late season sun, but they're extremely few and far between. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 SLE is only running a +1.0 departure and with the upcoming fogversion that positive departure will probably disappear in the next few days. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 No reason was given to me, just speculation, but I was accused of being "negative" after I didn't get aboard the wishcast express. Then poof I was gone. But I have probably already discussed it to much. It is what it is, I don't want to get put on mod preview for making an issue out of it. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 I know Jim has been mentioning the CFS. It has shown below normal conditions for most of the PNW in February the past two days. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20140119.201402.gif Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 I disagree, but it's an eye of the beholder kind of thing. Sure, there may be an occasional event which negates the affects of the late season sun, but they're extremely few and far between. Helps to be north. Bellingham typically gets a few genuinely good events per decade after the first half of February. I wouldn't consider something like March 20, 2002 or February 25, 2009 to be watered down events. If there's Fraser River outflow, I'm happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Totally sunny here again today. Beautiful out there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Helps to be north. Bellingham typically gets a few genuinely good events per decade after the first half of February. I wouldn't consider something like March 20, 2002 or February 25, 2009 to be watered down events. If there's Fraser River outflow, I'm happy. True. Outflow events become really rare down here after the first 10 days of February or so. At that point, things generally become dependent on moderate-heavy precip to be present to keep things "fresh." Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Totally sunny here again today. Beautiful out there. We lucked out down here with the mid level clouds moving through. Couldn't quite get things turned back over and now it's clearing out. Too bad a murkiness worse than ANY inversion will descend upon the PNW in about six and a half hours. (Yes, Jesse. It's sports related.) 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 We lucked out down here with the mid level clouds moving through. Couldn't quite get things turned back over and now it's clearing out. Too bad a murkiness worse than ANY inversion will descend upon the PNW in about six and a half hours. (Yes, Jesse. It's sports related.) Yes... I have a bad feeling about the game. The Niners are going to be hard to stop and we are without Harvin again. That guy is never healthy. Ever. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 True. Outflow events become really rare down here after the first 10 days of February or so. At that point, things generally become dependent on moderate-heavy precip to be present to keep things "fresh." I'd say after February 20, but yeah. March 1989 was probably the last real outflow induced snowfall after that point down there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yes... I have a bad feeling about the game. The Niners are going to be hard to stop and we are without Harvin again. That guy is never healthy. Ever. He needed to write the year off. But then again, I can understand his exuberance for wanting to get back, starting with a new team that is a serious contender. Edit: I wonder if Harvin has seen the latest CFS? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yes... I have a bad feeling about the game. The Niners are going to be hard to stop and we are without Harvin again. That guy is never healthy. Ever. No rain. either. We're 33. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yeah there are several mods who are only online in the evenings...I cleaned up a lot more crap then people realized, but got removed because I said January was going to suck...The price of being right I guess.What!? Really! That just does not make sense! If you got removed as a Mod for that then I am so sorry. I remember your posts around that time and how you referred to the upcoming January was totally fair and balanced. Talk about walking on eggshells on anything we say on here. Here are just a few things I feel would require any action from Mods. 1) Bashing and insults/attacks should not be allowed and kept to PM's - Specially if they are done just because you disagree. Both arguments should be supported and kept respectful. It is okay to disagree.2) I feel excessive complaining and whining over and over should be dealt with. Lite grumbling is tolerable but incessant complaining gets old.3) Extremely long debates over the same issue that go for pages should be moved to PM's Overall, expressing your views/opinions right or wrong is fine as long as it supported to some extent. I am sorry that this happened to you as I always thought you were a great Mod!! 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 No rain. either. We're 33. So... we are allowed to curse on this forum? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 So... we are allowed to curse on this forum? H.Y.F.R! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Finally tabulated my final December stats: Avg Max: 38.5Avg Min: 24.8Mean: 31.7Max: 51Min: 2Sub-Freezing lows: 28Sub-Freezing Highs: 8Precip: 5.10"Snowfall: 1.25"Days with precip: 10 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Hit the report button. I get an email. I then fix it. Should you (or anyone) have a problem with the site, the direction, the staff, the policies, or the choice of color, then let me know. Not a big fan of the various shades of gray. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 47 more will be added, give it time. I get it. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 EURO fun! http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Loving the end of the Euro. Definitely a step in the RIGHT direction!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 What!? Really! That just does not make sense! If you got removed as a Mod for that then I am so sorry. I remember your posts around that time and how you referred to the upcoming January was totally fair and balanced. Talk about walking on eggshells on anything we say on here. Here are just a few things I feel would require any action from Mods. 1) Bashing and insults/attacks should not be allowed and kept to PM's - Specially if they are done just because you disagree. Both arguments should be supported and kept respectful. It is okay to disagree.2) I feel excessive complaining and whining over and over should be dealt with. Lite grumbling is tolerable but incessant complaining gets old.3) Extremely long debates over the same issue that go for pages should be moved to PM's Overall, expressing your views/opinions right or wrong is fine as long as it supported to some extent. I am sorry that this happened to you as I always thought you were a great Mod!! I especially agree with #1. Cussing people out in PM is not okay, either. That should be off this website entirely. Great post!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 Just got to the lake house to watch the games, and there is a very brisk NW wind blowing so hopefully the fog/low clouds will blow away soon. I'm liking the latest PNA forecast, major tankage by Feb 1st! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 19, 2014 Report Share Posted January 19, 2014 EURO fun! http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif Well, lookey there. Baby steps in the right direction makes me believe the GFS is on to something! Go hawks!!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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