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January 2014 in the PNW


TT-SEA

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I think it is a safe bet to write off January. First week of Feb and on is still up for grabs though, and I do think we will see a much more active and colder month. Two looser January's in a row...oh well, maybe next year! Sun broke out in the late morning up here, and it turned into a very pleasant day that felt down right warm in the bright/higher angle sun!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Beautiful sunny day today. Felt a little bit like early spring...Back when I was still playing baseball a day like this in January would incite a terrible case of spring fever! Generally by the time the season came it was non-stop rain every day! :)

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Pretty much every model and index forecast out there says cold February. You would sure never know it to read some of the posts on here. The pattern will be far different at months end than it has been for the past several weeks.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'd say for the west coast these days:

 

Summer: July-August

Fall: September-October

Winter: November-January

Spring: February-June

 

Summer is usually very short (days with 75F+ being frequent)

Spring drags on

Winter weather is sporadic, but can occur over a decent chunk of time, intermittent with Fall

I don't think that's how seasons work. 

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Oh man... Jim did not get your memo.

I've been saying the change would begin in very late Jan and it will begin then.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Pretty much every model and index forecast out there says cold February. You would sure never know it to read some of the posts on here.

 

 

:lol:

 

 

Jim... come on dude.

 

That is FAR, FAR, FAR from being anything to count on.    And having a below normal February does not even mean something exciting will actually happen.

 

You were ripping us a month ago about being down about late December and early January.   You said everything was lining up.   Nothing happened.

 

Do you purposely block this stuff out of your memory??   Its just confounding how you can be so incredibly and endlessly positive for no reason at all... and then completely crash when you finally give up.    There is no middle ground with you.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I don't think that's how seasons work.

People just have a sour grapes attitude right now. Imagine how different the attitude would be if the December cold wave had delivered snow. It all comes down to fine details. Looking at the big picture we have had plenty of Arctic outbreaks in recent years. It's unfortunate they have not come during the core of the winter and have not been as snowy as we would like. This winter is far from over and things look good for Feb.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Did anyone notice how spring like it was out there today? The sun is as high in the sky as it was the week before Thanksgiving. It almost felt hot out there! VERY warm and spring like. I noticed the sun came up five minutes earlier than a month ago when I was scraping ice off my windshield this morning. We're on our way!

 

39/30 out in Stevenson today with a chilly east wind.

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:lol:

 

 

Jim... come on dude.

 

That is FAR, FAR, FAR from being anything to count on.    And having a below normal February does not even mean something exciting will actually happen.

 

You were ripping us a month ago about being down about late December and early January.   You said everything was lining up.   Nothing happened.

 

Do you purposely block this stuff out of your memory??   Its just confounding how you can be so incredibly and endlessly positive for no reason at all... and then completely crash when you finally give up.    There is no middle ground with you.

You are such an a-hole sometimes.

 

All of the models agree we have a good chance of a cold Feb.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I've been saying the change would begin in very late Jan and it will begin then.

 

 

This is the end of January and we are a long way from cold that would bring lowland snow on here.   Mountain snow will almost definitely improve though.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014012012!!chart.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Words can't describe how much fun the forum has been to read lately.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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People just have a sour grapes attitude right now. Imagine how different the attitude would be if the December cold wave had delivered snow. It all comes down to fine details. Looking at the big picture we have had plenty of Arctic outbreaks in recent years. It's unfortunate they have not come during the core of the winter and have not been as snowy as we would like. This winter is far from over and things look good for Feb.

 

I certainly don't think a decent February is out of the question.

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This is the end of January and we are a long way from cold that would bring lowland snow on here.   Mountain snow will almost definitely improve though.

 

Try looking at the ECMWF weeklies, the ECMWF ensemble, the MJO forecasts, the CFS forecasts, the PNA/EPO forecast, etc, etc. A big pattern change is coming. A nice window of opportunity. If you want to be such a freaking downer all the time be my guest.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I certainly don't think a decent February is out of the question.

As I said pretty much everything says it will be colder than normal. We will see how the details work out.

 

I just hate coming on here lately.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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You are such an a-hole sometimes.

 

All of the models agree we have a good chance of a cold Feb.

 

If you would be realistic and post good and bad... then I would not be such a critic.

 

But you seem to think the only way to post about the weather is to be incredibly positive about cold.    Nature don't play like that.     Phil said it best... nature is a cruel b*tch and the only way to develop an understanding of her is with brutal honesty (paraphrasing).

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I think the writing is on the wall about a big pattern change. The long range models may be flip flopping about whether or not we see a pattern conducive to cold/snow starting 7-10 days from now, but they all seem to agree about the ridge going away.

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Words can't describe how much fun the forum has been to read lately.

 

 

That is just the reality of the situation this winter.

 

We are not all here to live in a fantasy world and only dream about the possibilities.    We are dealing with what is actually happening.   And its sucked.   Pure and simple.

 

(Although I have loved the dry, sunny weather at my location).     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Guest Winterdog

I certainly don't think a decent February is out of the question.

Nor do I, but January is definitely worthy of the big fork. I'm sure we will see a widespread lowland snowfall in February.
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Guest Winterdog

Forgive me for posting so much this evening but I'm trying to get beyond the "newbie" designator. I had a beautiful day here with a high of 40 after a low of 31. Really no complaints from me about the weather. I wish we had snow and cold but without it this is next best in my opinion.

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I think the writing is on the wall about a big pattern change. The long range models may be flip flopping about whether or not we see a pattern conducive to cold/snow starting 7-10 days from now, but they all seem to agree about the ridge going away.

 

 

Although 1978-79 has not worked out in terms of cold... the overall pattern has been amazingly similar with an endless ridge out west and tons of cold and snow east of the Rockies.

 

That ridge crashed at the end of January kicking off a very wet February.

 

I have said February would be wet and chilly for quite awhile.    Just not sure about being cold enough to bring snow to the lowlands.    

 

Still it should be a welcome change for our mountains (and for CA).

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Forgive me for posting so much this evening but I'm trying to get beyond the "newbie" designator. I had a beautiful day here with a high of 40 after a low of 31. Really no complaints from me about the weather. I wish we had snow and cold but without it this is next best in my opinion.

 

I agree.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That is just the reality of the situation this winter.

 

We are not all here to live in a fantasy world and only dream about the possibilities.    We are dealing with what is actually happening.   And its sucked.   Pure and simple.

 

(Although I have loved the dry, sunny weather at my location).     

 

Yeah, I am having a lot of trouble figuring out why you think this winter has "sucked" so much. It has probably been the driest, sunniest winter for you since you moved here.

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Try looking at the ECMWF weeklies, the ECMWF ensemble, the MJO forecasts, the CFS forecasts, the PNA/EPO forecast, etc, etc. A big pattern change is coming. A nice window of opportunity. If you want to be such a freaking downer all the time be my guest.

 

 

Absolutely agree a pattern change is coming.    It has to change now.     

 

Not being a downer... we just have no idea if that change will mean lowland snow or just tons of mountain snow.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah, I am having a lot of trouble figuring out why you think this winter has "sucked" so much. It has probably been the driest, sunniest winter for you since you moved here.

 

 

I am trying to fit in and be down about the lack of snow like everyone else.     I have to conform or people get mad.   :)

 

Actually... I would have loved more snow.    But I am a November - January snow person.   Snow from February - April might be interesting but not as fun for me personally.    I have given up on this winter for the part I care about.    I am sure there will still be considerable snow here before spring actually stays.  

 

And as far as my enjoyment of this winter... I would give it an A-  (only being knocked down for the lack of snow).    The number of dry days and sunshine since November 1st has been awesome.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I think both are good! At least people could go boarding/skiing

 

 

Mountain snow would be awesome... that alone is reason to be happy about the pattern change.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The seasons according to our forums:

 

January-June = Spring

July-September = Summer

October = Fall

November-December = Winter

 

I think you mean "according to our 21st century climate".

 

And you can probably say:

 

January-February= Spring

March= Late winter

April-May= Spring

June= Late, late winter

July-September= Summer

October= Fall

November-December= Winter

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Guest Winterdog

Absolutely agree a pattern change is coming.    It has to change now.     

 

Not being a downer... we just have no idea if that change will mean lowland snow or just tons of mountain snow.

Yeah, if it waits until the middle of February or later we will be set up for a long cold and wet spring. Good skiing though.

Again, sorry for all the posts, as soon as I get to ten I'll stop.

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A major pattern change is coming.  I'm just a little worried the mean trough axis is going to be too far off shore, which will place us under southwesterly flow.  Could still be good for mountain snow, and I'm sure we'll see plenty of rain.

 

The ECMWF pretty much been garbage beyond hour 120 the past few days, going from one extreme to another with each run.  I wouldn't trust the long range with that model for anything right now.

 

The operational GFS has continuously been showing a retrogression of the long wave pattern, but most recent runs are showing the main trough offshore which puts us under southwesterly flow.  The 12Z ensembles weren't too bad, though.

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Beautiful weather the last few days. 

 

This morning I snowshoed up to Snow lake near Alpental. Arrived at the top around sunrise. The snow in the backcountry is pretty hard and crusty (requiring crampons in places). We need fresh snow!

 

Lake is beautiful and frozen over!

 

http://i395.photobucket.com/albums/pp32/tkungkagam/DSC06079.jpg

 

http://i395.photobucket.com/albums/pp32/tkungkagam/DSC06063.jpg

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Great pics!  Jealous!

 

Beautiful weather the last few days. 

 

This morning I snowshoed up to Snow lake near Alpental. Arrived at the top around sunrise. The snow in the backcountry is pretty hard and crusty (requiring crampons in places). We need fresh snow!

 

Lake is beautiful and frozen over!

 

http://i395.photobucket.com/albums/pp32/tkungkagam/DSC06079.jpg

 

http://i395.photobucket.com/albums/pp32/tkungkagam/DSC06063.jpg

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I think the writing is on the wall about a big pattern change. The long range models may be flip flopping about whether or not we see a pattern conducive to cold/snow starting 7-10 days from now, but they all seem to agree about the ridge going away.

 

The question is whether the ridge is gone for good or comes back after a few days.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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