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January 2014 in the PNW


TT-SEA

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Models are really starting to hint at the return of ridging in the EPO domain towards the end of the month. The progression of tropical forcing and the wave-breaker over the Aleutians favors this scenario, so it's not just model madness.

 

This is the first step towards a return to winter in the west, though I think we're still at least 15-20 days away from anything legit. So the prediction of a 4-6 week "hiatus" seems to have worked out.

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Models are really starting to hint at the return of ridging in the EPO domain towards the end of the month. The progression of tropical forcing and the wave-breaker over the Aleutians favors this scenario, so it's not just model madness.

 

This is the first step towards a return to winter in the west, though I think we're still at least 15-20 days away from anything legit. So the prediction of a 4-6 week "hiatus" seems to have worked out.

 

I definitely shared the same thoughts as far as a hiatus from western troughing. Although the MJO is taking longer to get going than I originally thought, back in the last week of December I shared my reasoning as to why I didn't think we had a shot until the end of the month. Once the MJO reached the West Pacific, it was evident we would have an extended period of riding while an El Nino like regime took hold. Seems as though it will still take a bit to possibly get things going around here, so I'm guessing end of the month will be a bit too soon. If things are going to work out as I'm hoping, I'm thinking the first week or 2 of February... but then again, I've consistently been too quick with my thinking. The AMM will be headed into positive territory shortly, followed by another drop. The correlations associated with the AMM and 500mb heights as well as tropical convection is evident in the following composite I threw together. -AMM supports a -PNA ridge as well convection in the Indian Ocean - Maritime Continent regions.

 

http://i40.tinypic.com/16ifuxl.gif

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Yeah, the tropical tropopause has been in a lowered state with the +QBO westerlies and anti-cyclonic eddies all over the boundaries of the Ferrel domain...so the MJO has been hampered thus far. My original call for a breakout in mid Jan looks way off, almost a month too early. Whoops, haha.

 

Also, regarding your bottom-left image. That looks more like a -AAM geopotential height orientation to me?

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Yeah, the tropical tropopause has been in a lowered state with the +QBO westerlies and anti-cyclonic eddies all over the boundaries of the Ferrel domain...so the MJO has been hampered thus far. My original call for a breakout in mid Jan looks way off, almost a month too early. Whoops, haha.

 

Also, regarding your bottom-left image. That looks more like a -AAM geopotential height orientation to me?

 

Oooops, that was supposed to say -AAM... going to fix it right now. How soon do you believe the decreasing westerlies will help cool the troposphere/stratosphere and allow the MJO to strengthen?

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Oooops, that was supposed to say -AAM... going to fix it right now. How soon do you believe the decreasing westerlies will help cool the troposphere/stratosphere and allow the MJO to strengthen?

This is a tough one, but I'm thinking the metaphoric rubber band snaps sometime between February 10th and March 10th. In my view, this could be a classic late-winter SSW/MJO release, perhaps marking the demise of the winter-PV as the FSW (final warming).

 

In February 1991, something very similar occurred. Only, the tropical forcings coupled with the flimsy Brewer-Dobson cell/high solar flux the led to a US blow-torch while the rest of the hemisphere went into the freezer..much like January-February 2012.

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Does anyone know of studies (climatology) for when and if a west coast ridge occurs in winter whether it has a preferred length of stay?

 

Anecdotally, I have often heard that once this ridge establishes, it is rather difficult to move, weaken, etc.  I suppose it is also seasonally dependent.

 

PRISM

P R I S M

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All:

 

For any truly newbies:

 

The Monthly Western Snowpack and Water Supply Forecast Report has also been posted to the NWCC homepage in MS Word and Adobe Acrobat formats at the following address: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/westsnowsummary.pl.

 

The Weekly CONUS Snowpack and Drought Update Report has been posted to the NWCC homepage as an Adobe Acrobat file at the following address: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/water/drought/wdr.pl. Archived copies can also be acquired there.

P R I S M

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I'm back too, but I'm not sure there was any demand.

 

I think my last lament on the old board was whether we were going to stick a fork in the remaining months of winter. Something not scientific tells me to be optimisitc. I've had a few inches of snow here as late as the third week in March (2011?).

Favorite weather: The kind most people run away from

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Wow. Something's gotta give.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-68-0-13648500-1389720089.gif

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-68-0-85584700-1389720099.png

I have to admit that is really encouraging!! Yes, something has to give and I hope it's not our sanity if this does not play out like we hope. ;) 

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Wowzers....

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif

 

Nice cutoff low, maybe some nocturnal thunderstorms? Muggy nights?

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Wow. Something's gotta give.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-68-0-13648500-1389720089.gifhttp://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-68-0-85584700-1389720099.png

 

This may be the time when the ridge gets squeezed by the lows. All that has to happen is for the GoA high height anomaly to vanish. Which may happen soon.

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Was a very pleasant day on my travels for work. Was at yakima this morning until about 11AM and I had to pull off the sweatshirt and roll down the window when leaving it felt so warm! Snoqualmie Pass looked pathetic though, a few skiers dodging weeds from the looks of it.

 

Hopefully winter will come soon!

 

I see Tim is the only non-newbie so far!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Was a very pleasant day on my travels for work. Was at yakima this morning until about 11AM and I had to pull off the sweatshirt and roll down the window when leaving it felt so warm! Snoqualmie Pass looked pathetic though, a few skiers dodging weeds from the looks of it.

 

Hopefully winter will come soon!

 

I see Tim is the only non-newbie so far!

 

You didn't stop in on your way through North Bend???    :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You didn't stop in on your way through North Bend???    :)

I did stop for Starbucks at 5:15AM in North Bend! Was a much drier morning than last week while going over the pass!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Yikes.

 

Yikes indeed.  

 

I think the GFS might be off in wonderland with some of its scenarios at the end of the operational runs and in some of the ensembles.    I see nothing in sight that makes me think this situation will actually change.

 

Mark Nelsen also mentioned the ridge could be with us the 'rest of the winter'.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Only about 1 month of real winter territory left for most so it is entirely possible. And yes I know it could snow even in April, but certainly not of the variety most on here are looking for. I maintain that there seems to be the possibility of things breaking down the end of the month into the beginning of the next...but I certainly wouldn't be surprised if nothing did change with the way things are going.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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The thread on the other forum was locked to encourage people to post here since there is no reason for all of us to monitor two forums with the same people posting about the same things. Am I right?

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Yep, my guess too....

 

And a rex block as well.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014011500!!chart.gif

 

 

Seems like a long way from getting cold with that set up.   There is nothing even close to tap into at that point.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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