January 2014 in the PNW

[Jesse]

Some nice improvement on the 00Z GFS ensembles.

[Deweydog]

Yes, but one day in the mid-40s wouldn't be enough to flash melt a lake in a month who's average temp is 0F.

 

What if it was???

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I could personally care less about this debate. Some pretty worthless if you ask me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yes, but one or two days in the mid-40s wouldn't be enough to flash melt a lake in a month who's average temp is 0F.

 

I know the average temp at my location was 31.7 in December and froze my neighbors pond solid. Obviously January has been much warmer, but it still has a thin layer of ice on it given the recent sub-freezing mornings. (It is pretty shaded, but still, its not like this January has been cold overall.).

[Skagit Weather]

45/36 up here today. Started out with clear skies in the morning, but clouded up by 11 until clearing by about 1:30. Definitely interesting progression. I went hiking up near Chuckanut today and it was beautiful with lots of people enjoying the sunshine. Clouds at about 700-800 ft level before clearing out later in the afternoon.

[BLI snowman]

I could personally care less about this debate. Some pretty worthless s**t if you ask me.

 

Couldn't care less.

[Deweydog]

Curious what Richard Sherman thinks of the Euro.  

[Guest Winterdog]

I think the Euro looks promising in that it appears it may be pushing up an Aleutian ridge at the end.  I had to say something to get my 10th post in.  I think I'm now an official member now.  Hold the applause.

[snow_wizard]

Already down to 30 here tonight.

[Deweydog]

I think the Euro looks promising in that it appears it may be pushing up an Aleutian ridge at the end.  I had to say something to get my 10th post in.  I think I'm now an official member now.  Hold the applause.

 

When you become advanced they send you a free copy of Moesha season three on DVD.  Something to look forward to...

[Guest Winterdog]

Down to 29.5F here.  I was really getting tired of the fog. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

When you become advanced they send you a free copy of Moesha season three on DVD.  Something to look forward to...

 

I loved the UPN network

[Guest Winterdog]

When you become advanced they send you a free copy of Moesha season three on DVD.  Something to look forward to...

It'll take me another 5 years to post enough to be advanced so by then maybe by then I could handle it. 

[Deweydog]

It'll take me another 5 years to post enough to be advanced so by then maybe by then I could handle it. 

 

Don't be hatin' Moesha.  Especially not today.  

[Sometimesdylan]

Definitely looks like something interesting for the west is gonna happen after this ridge moves around a bit. A week or two of spring like conditions isn't so bad... Might even see some sunshine.

[westiztehbest]

The CFS/Euro weeklies show February being more active.  See thread for images.

[FroYoBro]

I think the Euro looks promising in that it appears it may be pushing up an Aleutian ridge at the end.  I had to say something to get my 10th post in.  I think I'm now an official member now.  Hold the applause.

But I live for the applause. 

[westcoastexpat]

That was my initial issue. I didn't expect it to turn into such a drawn out argument.

 

Looking at monthly stats for areas in the BC interior has been fun, though!

 

I find that people have very short memory spans when it comes to the weather. When it's been 10+ years since a certain "extreme event" has happened, it's now (incorrectly) dubbed as "global warming," even if it used to happen all the time. People adapt to weather patterns quickly, and forget old weather patterns even quicker, it seems.

 

I think the lack of ice is not as big of a deal as the dryness. I think drought conditions will be of serious concern from San Diego to Prince George if we don't have an unusually wet late winter/spring. There's practically zero alpine snow cover of substance to quench the thirst of the ground during the usual spring melt. We've had 2 rather dry summers in a row now... a third one would absolutely devastate some regions.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah the CFS looks very good for February today!

[GobBluth]

12z says the pattern change is only temporary and ridge builds back in.

[Guest Monty67]

Where have you been reading this? I would like some links.

 

I would imagine they have seen much warmer Januaries, even in recent years.

This is at 3000ft, Gun Lake BC, more south central than central BC interior.

 

http://www.southchilcotin.ca/gunlake/gunlakecam.jpg?Tue Jan 21 2014 08:45:25 GMT-0800 (Pacific Standard Time)

 

And a quote from Jan.13th

 

"And then the warm wind came! At Gun lake it took out the hydro for 15hrs, it broke up the lake ice sheets, it blew the snow off the trees and it ate up half the snowpack! Temps reached plus 7c today."

 

That is the only Link that I can give you where you can actually see with your own eyes. Everything else would just be people's comments about open water, and I am just believing that they are being honest. Supposedly Charlotte Lake, which is much further north than Gun Lake, has open water as well. The open water lakes seem to be more in the Chilcotin region than Prince George and Cariboo region lakes. My family has a Cabin on a lake near 100 Mile House, and there is no doubt in my mind that the lake is frozen. It often doesn't thaw till late April, sometimes May.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z is not very good...

[Jesse]

Wow, the 12z totally jumped the shark.

[Jesse]

This is at 3000ft, Gun Lake BC, more south central than central BC interior.

 

http://www.southchilcotin.ca/gunlake/gunlakecam.jpg?Tue Jan 21 2014 08:45:25 GMT-0800 (Pacific Standard Time)

 

And a quote from Jan.13th

 

"And then the warm wind came! At Gun lake it took out the hydro for 15hrs, it broke up the lake ice sheets, it blew the snow off the trees and it ate up half the snowpack! Temps reached plus 7c today."

 

That is the only Link that I can give you where you can actually see with your own eyes. Everything else would just be people's comments about open water, and I am just believing that they are being honest. Supposedly Charlotte Lake, which is much further north than Gun Lake, has open water as well. The open water lakes seem to be more in the Chilcotin region than Prince George and Cariboo region lakes. My family has a Cabin on a lake near 100 Mile House, and there is no doubt in my mind that the lake is frozen. It often doesn't thaw till late April, sometimes May.

Thanks for the info. My original question was to you after all.

[Guest Winterdog]

I hope the 12Z is a big warm outlier on the ensembles like the 6Z was.  The ridge is too far east then too far west then back too far east again. 

[Guest Monty67]

Thanks for the info. My original question was to you after all.

No problem. There really isn't much in the way of weather data for the Chilcotin. Stations are few and far between. Tatlayoko Lake, which is in the Chilcotin, does have some data though. Since Dec.10th, when things turned mild, their average high has been right around 40F. Typically they would have a high around 28F during this period. Unfortunatly, much of there data for low temps is missing. But it would be reasonable to assume that temperatures have been double digits above average since December 10th.

[TT-SEA]

Magnolia tree in our yard is saying 'screw winter' this morning:

 

 

 

Too bad its probably in for 5 months of crappy weather when this ridge goes away.  

[Guest Monty67]

Magnolia tree in our yard is saying 'screw winter' this morning:

 

 

Too bad its probably in for 5 months of crappy weather when this ridge goes away.  

Love Magnolia trees. Those buds look close to opening. When does that tree typically flower.

[TT-SEA]

Love Magnolia trees. Those buds look close to opening. When does that tree typically flower.

 

 

Quite awhile yet... I think in late March or early April.     Still serves a nice sign of impending spring on beautiful days like this one.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I know I mentioned the other day that my chickens had started laying again. My Ducks have too.

[Jesse]

12z Euro and the GFS ensembles look pretty decent for us. Looks like they are directly at odds with the unofficial forecast created by Andrew's chickens and ducks this morning.

[Jesse]

Pretty incredible amount of cold over both North America and Eurasia on day 10 of the Euro.

[TT-SEA]

12z Euro and the GFS ensembles look pretty decent for us. Looks like they are directly at odds with the unofficial forecast created by Andrew's chickens and ducks this morning.

 

 

Yep... it should be a wet, chilly February.    The best thing possible right now.     Ridging through February would be a very bad sign for spring.  

 

None of that means there will be meaningful lowland snow or cold though.   

[hailstop]

I know that many major lakes at rather high elevations in the BC interior have been reported to have not been frozen over, and the BC news has hyped it as "never seen before" by locals. 

 

The bigger story really is the lack of snow. Many places are way, WAY below their average snowfall by this time of year in the BC interior. My sister told me that it was raining at the Coquihalla summit in early January. I've never heard of that.

 

FWIW, my cousin lives up in Prince George and she was posting photos of her kids playing pond hockey back in December.

 

As someone who forecasts for the Coq, trust me...it commonly rains up there. Not to say that the weather has been unusual, but the fact that it rained in January on the Coq isn't.

[hailstop]

This is at 3000ft, Gun Lake BC, more south central than central BC interior.

 

http://www.southchilcotin.ca/gunlake/gunlakecam.jpg?Tue Jan 21 2014 08:45:25 GMT-0800 (Pacific Standard Time)

 

And a quote from Jan.13th

 

"And then the warm wind came! At Gun lake it took out the hydro for 15hrs, it broke up the lake ice sheets, it blew the snow off the trees and it ate up half the snowpack! Temps reached plus 7c today."

 

That is the only Link that I can give you where you can actually see with your own eyes. Everything else would just be people's comments about open water, and I am just believing that they are being honest. Supposedly Charlotte Lake, which is much further north than Gun Lake, has open water as well. The open water lakes seem to be more in the Chilcotin region than Prince George and Cariboo region lakes. My family has a Cabin on a lake near 100 Mile House, and there is no doubt in my mind that the lake is frozen. It often doesn't thaw till late April, sometimes May.

 

Now THAT is unusual.

[GobBluth]

Pretty incredible amount of cold over both North America and Eurasia on day 10 of the Euro.

At the very least maybe a strong west/northwest jet to build up the snowpack.

[luvssnow_spokane]

12z Euro and the GFS ensembles look pretty decent for us. Looks like they are directly at odds with the unofficial forecast created by Andrew's chickens and ducks this morning.

 

LOL!!  Maybe the two huge flocks of Canadian geese I saw flying north this morning means something?

[Guest Winterdog]

The most telling harbinger of spring is the lack of posts from Snow_wizard.

[HighlandExperience]

At the very least maybe a strong west/northwest jet to build up the snowpack.

 

Honestly the snowpack right now looks more like late May. Looks like that may change though in a few weeks. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

The most telling harbinger of spring is the lack of posts from Snow_wizard.

I think there is enough uncertainty that he is being optimistically cautious... right now there looks to be a pattern change but nothing to grasp onto that is better than cooler with mountain snow and rain in the lowlands on a consistent basis. I do feel if we start seeing better more consistent runs he will be more active.