January 2014 in the PNW

[Bham_Guy]

Btw, I am still curious about the option to put people on ignore here. There a certain few I have in mind...

 

1. The Weather Forums
2. → My control panel
3. → Settings
4. → 'Ignore' Preferences

[Jesse]

I appreciate a diversity of opinions and perspectives.

Me too. Not a big fan of "opinions" formed simply to aggravate others, though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

1. The Weather Forums
2. → My control panel
3. → Settings
4. → 'Ignore' Preferences

 

 

Now Jesse will put me on ignore.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Me too. Not a big fan of "opinions" formed simply to aggravate others, though.

 

I'm not really trying to aggravate you. I'm tired or our weather trolling the out of us with one dumpfest of a winter after another.

[Jesse]

Now Jesse will put me on ignore.

Not necessarily. I still like barely over half of what you post. There are others who are definitely worse.

[Jesse]

I'm not really trying to aggravate you. I'm tired or our weather trolling the s**t out of us with one dumpfest of a winter after another.

I feel you. I'm just trying to enjoy what we have right now. At least it feels a little wintery out here. I do think February had a lot of potential too. Past history shows it can be a good month. I guess I just don't get the pessimism simply for the sake of pessimism.

 

Despite the blisteringly hot late January sun, true spring is still well over a month away for the lowlands. Probably a lot longer than that for you.

[Guest Monty67]

Did KVUO make his way to the new forum, or did he disappear? Under a new name perhaps?

[Jesse]

Hopefully a mutual love of the 12z Euro can help us put all of our differences behind us.

 

The progression looks great, and is moving up. It has been SO long since we've seen decent arctic air in the first ten days of February. Fingers crossed...

[Jesse]

Did KVUO make his way to the new forum, or did he disappear? Under a new name perhaps?

I believe he is now BLI snowman.

[Guest Monty67]

I believe he is now BLI snowman.

Ahhh, that makes sense.

 

The euro is not ugly, but not great, room for improvement. In general seems like things are trending better

[Jesse]

Ahhh, that makes sense.

 

The euro is not ugly, but not great, room for improvement. In general seems like things are trending better

We must not be looking at the same Euro.

 

I would call the 12z run great.

 

It really seems like some people will never be happy...

[Guest Monty67]

We must not be looking at the same Euro.

 

I would call the 12z run great.

 

It really seems like some people will never be happy...

"Great"... really? What is great about it, not trying to start an argument or anything.

 

I will be happy when its 28F and there is 6" of snow on my front steps. I don't see that happening with what the euro is showing.

 

That's why I said there is room for improvement.

[westcoastexpat]

12Z Euro is pretty good for those seeking a pattern change. It definitely opens the door for opportunity next month, I'd say.

[chinook]

Despite the wind...fantastic day.

 

McMinnville...Sunny and close to 50. 

 

taunting of spring?   Probably not but I'll take it. 

[Deweydog]

Today COULD be mistaken for a mid October day if it were colder than average and sunny.  

 

It COULD also be mistaken for a mid April day if it were colder than average and sunny and the earth's tilt got screwed up pretty bad.

 

It COULD be mistaken for a mid January day if it were a week or so ago.  

 

Lots of possibilities.  Keep those eyes on the models!  Don't ignore them if they get you down!  They MIGHT start ignoring you!!!

[Alex_Snakes]

"Great"... really? What is great about it, not trying to start an argument or anything.

 

I will be happy when its 28F and there is 6" of snow on my front steps. I don't see that happening with what the euro is showing.

 

That's why I said there is room for improvement.

 

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Rc8k_D3yYoE/Tw4IyOKMysI/AAAAAAAAAls/awgasVzJMfA/s320/Stephen-Colbert-Popcorn.gif

[luminen]

43F and CLEAR sunny skies in Eugene...finally. This is the nicest day here since I've been back from the sunny southern hemisphere. 

[50shadesofvan]

Latest NAEFS EPSgram shows high likelihood of precipitation by the 28th or 29th, but remember, NAEFS although more skillful than CMC/NCEP alone, still rapidly lose skill after 10 days...

Note the cooling trend in early February, but the error bars are still quite significant.  

 

 

[brody]

 There are others who are definitely worse.

And you're one of them.

 

 

It really seems like some people will never be happy...

NOT with confrontational people like you.

 

It's fascinating seeing you call people out for their opinion but then acting as if your opinion is the only one that matters.

[slim1357]

And you're one of them.

 

 

NOT with confrontational people like you.

 

It's fascinating seeing you call people out for their opinion but then acting as if your opinion is the only one that matters.

Nailed it. I've been lurking here and the other forum for several years. Some people seem to think that a realistic analysis is being pessimistic or negative just to be pessimistic or negative. Some seem to think a statement of truth, for example "it feels like spring today" is trolling. This makes no sense to me but I don't take the weather too personally. I'm bummed about this ski season but there will be future ones. I'm bummed about the lack of valley snow since 2008 but we will get another snowstorm someday. It is what it is. 

[Guest Monty67]

If there is 6 inches of snow, I will set up a lawn chair on my front steps and eat popcorn just like that.

 

I am moving Jan 30th, I am sure my new neighbours will think I am crazy.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM shows classic retrogression. 12z EURO looks fine also. 12z GFS isn't bad either. Still a long ways to go, but I certainly like the pattern change advertised. Anything but another ridge at or inside 130 W.

[luvssnow_spokane]

12z GEM shows classic retrogression. 12z EURO looks fine also. 12z GFS isn't bad either. Still a long ways to go, but I certainly like the pattern change advertised. Anything but another ridge at or inside 130 W.

Amen to that... In about 10 to 15 days we may all need to be snacken on some popcorn watching the snow fall or eating it to comfort ourselves because the outcome sucked. For now ,things are waaaaaaay out there but at least we have baby steps.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

And you're one of them.

 

 

NOT with confrontational people like you.

 

It's fascinating seeing you call people out for their opinion but then acting as if your opinion is the only one that matters.

I think the best thing Jesse can do is put the whole board on ignore then he can have a love fest with himself.

[Phil]

I'm looking at the 12z GEFS individual members, and I'm not sure what's so great about them...only a few of them are cold enough for snow in the lowlands. Furthermore, most of them send the brunt of the cold east of the Rockies...the different timing amongst them leads to a smudged SE ridge look as heights rise due to phasing in the central US.

[HighlandExperience]

I'm looking at the 12z GEFS individual members, and I'm not sure what's so great about them...only a few of them are cold enough for snow in the lowlands. Furthermore, most of them send the brunt of the cold east of the Rockies...the different timing amongst them leads to a smudged SE ridge look as heights rise due to phasing in the central US.

 

It is better than anything we have experinced in the last 3 weeks, that is what is so great about them.

[Snowman Josh]

Ya, I'm not seeing anything all that great.  Pattern seems to be shifting but I see some easterly slide as we always do.  Does appear to be a surface low developing around day 8 but that can't be believed as of now.

[GobBluth]

It is better than anything we have experinced in the last 3 weeks, that is what is so great about them.

not to get all deadspin, but +1.

 

new 18z gets the action going within the believable time range with atmospheric river action - doubt the ski areas would like that much.

[Gradient Keeper]

not to get all deadspin, but +1.

 

new 18z gets the action going within the believable time range with atmospheric river action - doubt the ski areas would like that much.

Yup. Block is pinched off. Energy digs south, and then the undercutting jet arrives with SW flow.... hmmmm.... A run full of speculation, but hey maybe this is how things pan out.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ya, I'm not seeing anything all that great.  Pattern seems to be shifting but I see some easterly slide as we always do.  Does appear to be a surface low developing around day 8 but that can't be believed as of now.

Oh c'mon are you trying to say the GFS isn't believable in the 8-10 day range

[Guest Winterdog]

The 18Z op is a warm outlier. The ensembles look pretty good to me (a relative term of course).

 

[GobBluth]

The 18Z op is a warm outlier. The ensembles look pretty good to me (a relative term of course).

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

which is the kontroll?

[Guest Winterdog]

which is the kontroll?

Heavey dark blue line Der Capitan.

[GobBluth]

So what's the difference between the kontroll and hauptlauf

[Jesse]

I think the best thing Jesse can do is put the whole board on ignore then he can have a love fest with himself.

Nah, I'll just block annoyances like you and Brody and be off on my merry way.

[Gradient Keeper]

So what's the difference between the kontroll and hauptlauf

I'm not certain on this myself. Hauptlauf sounds like Beer

 

Here, I found a link of absolutely no help at all!

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hauptlauf

You're welcome.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 hours until 00z GFS!

3 1/2 hours until 00z GEM!

5 hours 28 minutes until 00z EURO!

[Jesse]

Surprised no one has commented on the east winds in the Portland area today. PDX was gusting up around 40mph all afternoon.

 

It has been very cold and windy out here. High of only 37 today, after a low of 32, with east winds gusting in the 30-40mph range.

[Deweydog]

Breezy east wind in areas prone to breezy east winds today.  

[Guest Winterdog]

So what's the difference between the kontroll and hauptlauf

The control line is of a lower resolution than the operational and is developed using the best analysis and is usually what is perturbed to produce the remaining members.  I lifted that definition from a GFS training page.  I don't know what "best analysis" really entails though.  If the control line and the operational are somewhat in agreement that means the operational can be considered more reliable than if they don't somewhat agree.

 

In the case of the current 18Z ensembles it looks like the operational is in poor agreement with the control line after Feb 3rd but in good agreement prior to that. Since the operational is much warmer than the control line after the 3rd I would guess that the warmer solution is less likely.

 

Edit: the hauptlauf is the GFS Operational output.