January 2014 in the PNW

[Alex_Snakes]

No, you're just wishcasting and cheerleading.

 

I think we are supposed to be posting thoughts on why it isn't going to snow or do anything in the next 7 days, Jesse. Get with it.

[stuffradio]

This place needs a moderator or ten.

What if we make you all ten moderators?

[Gradient Keeper]

Anthony, like I said "Tantalizingly close" and if you look at the 500mb pattern with the ridge well offshore, it is. I didn't say it DID deliver arctic air, so don't misconstrue that.

[TT-SEA]

Daffodils coming up here:

 

[catnip]

12Z Euro! 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EURO full run

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html

I'm going to just say what makes everyone happy, not actual analysis. Nothing objective. Snow, snowmen building everywhere. Cold, but 26-32, not too cold. Moisture everywhere. Not dry. Just snowy. It's white and cold. You can make snowballs easily with this stuff. Snowball fights? Sure. Snow in the mountains too. Snow for all the boys and girls. Even the birds are getting snow on them when they fly around n stuff.

[Guest Winterdog]

Let’s face it; this is not just a scientific forum.  That is the beauty of it to me.  This forum has always been a great mix of science, statistics, hunches, humor, and lots of personal feelings demonstrated within a weather oriented landscape.  Each of these attributes should be tolerated and encouraged as long as they are kept civil and respectful.  There are probably potential contributors to the forum that are not posting for fear of being ridiculed or made fun of because their thoughts on the model runs might be in error.  It is possible to point out someone’s error without smirking in print.  Moderation and policing are not going to get the job done alone; it takes a bit of self-control to refrain from clubbing someone over his or her opinion. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF offers some hope for snow up here late in the run.     Not arctic... but interesting.

[Deweydog]

Let’s face it; this is not just a scientific forum.  That is the beauty of it to me.  This forum has always been a great mix of science, statistics, hunches, humor, and lots of personal feelings demonstrated within a weather oriented landscape.  Each of these attributes should be tolerated and encouraged as long as they are kept civil and respectful.  There are probably potential contributors to the forum that are not posting for fear of being ridiculed or made fun of because their thoughts on the model runs might be in error.  It is possible to point out someone’s error without smirking in print.  Moderation and policing are not going to get the job done alone; it takes a bit of self-control to refrain from clubbing someone over his or her opinion. 

 

Please!  Someone tell me how to this person on ignore!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Guest Winterdog]

Please!  Someone tell me how to this person on ignore!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I detect a smirk.

[Jesse]

Let’s face it; this is not just a scientific forum. That is the beauty of it to me. This forum has always been a great mix of science, statistics, hunches, humor, and lots of personal feelings demonstrated within a weather oriented landscape. Each of these attributes should be tolerated and encouraged as long as they are kept civil and respectful. There are probably potential contributors to the forum that are not posting for fear of being ridiculed or made fun of because their thoughts on the model runs might be in error. It is possible to point out someone’s error without smirking in print. Moderation and policing are not going to get the job done alone; it takes a bit of self-control to refrain from clubbing someone over his or her opinion.

Great post!

[Deweydog]

http://www.kgw.com/news/Rare-winter-wildfires-erupt-in-northern-Coast-Range-241807301.html

[Deweydog]

I detect a smirk.

 

 

Nooooooooooo...  

[Jesse]

Already 51 degrees with sun and a warmish east breeze.

 

It will end up in the 60-65 degree range here today which I now know is NOT spring-like. Its very, very much like winter because its bitterly cold at Jesse's house.

 

Would have to be delusional to think 62 and sunny could be even remotely considered spring-like.

 

Just like a 53-degree, dark and drizzly day in June is very summer-like.

My point is the conditions I have been seeing out here are proof that it's still very much winter. A cold pool of this magnitude east of the cascades would simply not exist during a ridgy period 4-5 weeks from now. Strong ridging in late January can certainly produce some spring like days in areas not affected by the inversion, but we still have a long way to go before climo starts to make a definitive move toward Spring. We have had some great winter weather in February in the past. If the 12z Euro is on to anything we may be seeing more soon!

 

33, overcast and windy out here. Have you hit 60 yet today?

[Jesse]

Nooooooooooo...

You are a waste of forum bandwidth.

[Deweydog]

You are a waste of forum bandwidth.

 

According to the gander, that's a bit of the pot calling the kettle black.  Everyone's just a little over having the opinion police sitting on every street corner.  

[brody]

Not sure what compelled myself and a friend to do so but we ended up in my truck on the way down south to Crown point @ 930 last night.

 

Stopped in PDX for some food and then headed east on 84 and arrived @ Crown Point around 115 am, I parked my truck as far as possible from the vista house to see how hard it would be to walk there. ( keep in mind that it was my buddy's first time ) and had never until last night been to Crown Point nor experienced a wind event there.

 

After Parking and turning off the engine we both could immediately feel gusts in the 55-60 mph range and had the truck rocking back and forth ( He was freaking out a bit ) and asked me several times if the truck was going to roll or flip over LMAO

 

I looked at my buddy and said " I didn't drive down here for you to sit in the truck " we both got out and walked, albeit " in a difficult manner towards the vista house trying to keep our footing and as we got within 10 feet of the vista house the wind gusts became extremely strong and walking in any form was a distant memory, we were finally able to grab the railing with our backs to the wind and proceeded to get " Gorge Blasted " for about 6 mins before neither one of us could stand it anymore.

 

The combination of low pressure, high wind gusts and lowered body temperature was something to behold, my head still hurts now as a result of that crazy stunt. Feels like someone put my head in a vise and squeezed.

 

Now I know how Keely Chalmers felt

 

Highest gust I recorded while there was 81mph

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Not sure what compelled myself and a friend to do so but we ended up in my truck on the way down south to Crown point @ 930 last night.

 

Stopped in PDX for some food and then headed east on 84 and arrived @ Crown Point around 115 am, I parked my truck as far as possible from the vista house to see how hard it would be to walk there. ( keep in mind that it was my buddy's first time ) and had never until last night been to Crown Point nor experienced a wind event there.

 

After Parking and turning off the engine we both could immediately feel gusts in the 55-60 mph range and had the truck rocking back and forth ( He was freaking out a bit ) and asked me several times if the truck was going to roll or flip over LMAO

 

I looked at my buddy and said " I didn't drive down here for you to sit in the truck " we both got out and walked, albeit " in a difficult manner towards the vista house trying to keep our footing and as we got within 10 feet of the vista house the wind gusts became extremely strong and walking in any form was a distant memory, we were finally able to grab the railing with our backs to the wind and proceeded to get " Gorge Blasted " for about 6 mins before neither one of us could stand it anymore.

 

The combination of low pressure, high wind gusts and lowered body temperature was something to behold, my head still hurts now as a result of that crazy stunt. Feels like someone put my head in a vise and squeezed.

 

Now I know how Keely Chalmers felt

 

Highest gust I recorded while there was 81mph

 

Cool story!  I experienced the wrath of Super-Typhoon Flo in 1990 while at Yokosuka, Japan--she arrived 2 days before my son.  To make a long story short, I went outside in the middle of the night and was brought down by the winds--and had to do the low crawl to get back inside.  At the time, I was about 27 years old, 5' 11", 225 pounds.  Never felt anything like that.  Don't know if I want to do it again. 

[BLI snowman]

Who is cheer leading and wish casting?

 

Is being anything but incredibly depressing and glum with every post considered cheer leading and wish casting now?

 

Take a break buddy. It will be good for you. This is the worst I have ever seen you.

 

Yeah, he's been pretty insufferable lately. Not totally sure if he's just doing it for kicks at this point.

 

How anyone can look at the 12z models and act like it's "same old, same old" is beyond me. The pattern change is pretty well accounted for at this point in model-land.

 

Christ, I sound like Jim now. 

[BLI snowman]

What are you talking about?  I don't see anything remotely close to delivering arctic air to the PNW on the run...

 

Wait, you're serious....?

 

This is hour 240 of the 06z GFS.  Not even remotely close to delivering arctic air? Are your eyes working okay?

 

[TT-SEA]

My point is the conditions I have been seeing out here are proof that it's still very much winter. A cold pool of this magnitude east of the cascades would simply not exist during a ridgy period 4-5 weeks from now. Strong ridging in late January can certainly produce some spring like days in areas not affected by the inversion, but we still have a long way to go before climo starts to make a definitive move toward Spring. We have had some great winter weather in February in the past. If the 12z Euro is on to anything we may be seeing more soon!

 

33, overcast and windy out here. Have you hit 60 yet today?

 

 

Really... its still winter?    No sh*t Sherlock.

 

The conditions you described are producing spring-like conditions in the middle of winter in many places.   As they almost always do.   Like here where it is now 59 degrees.   Sitting on the deck... it feels quite warm I assure you.    99% of people would say it feels spring-like here.    And of course it will get cold again and no doubt snow on my deck.         

 

Thanks for the update that its still winter... it just does not feel like it right now.    When its 53 degrees and drizzling here in June... its still summer but it sure does not feel like it.  

 

What a stupid discussion because some people have commented that the warm temperatures and sunshine feel like spring.    BECAUSE IT DOES.   

[Deweydog]

Wait, you're serious....?

 

This is hour 240 of the 06z GFS.  Not even remotely close to delivering arctic air? Are your eyes working okay?

 

gfs_namer_240_1000_500_thick.gif

 

He is a meteorologist and you are not.  

[TT-SEA]

Deformation band over Oregon next Friday on the 12Z ECMWF.  

 

Could be some snow for Andrew with that set-up if it verifies.    But it would be marginal even at his elevation.   

 

Something has to happen around here.    The worst thing would be a dry February because we would almost surely pay for that all spring.

[Brennan]

Cool story!  I experienced the wrath of Super-Typhoon Flo in 1990 while at Yokosuka, Japan--she arrived 2 days before my son.  To make a long story short, I went outside in the middle of the night and was brought down by the winds--and had to do the low crawl to get back inside.  At the time, I was about 27 years old, 5' 11", 225 pounds.  Never felt anything like that.  Don't know if I want to do it again. 

5’11, 225... STACKED? 

[Deweydog]

Deformation band over Oregon next Friday on the 12Z ECMWF.  

 

Could be some snow for Andrew with that set-up if it verifies.    But it would be marginal even at his elevation.   

 

Something has to happen around here.    The worst thing would be a dry February because we would almost surely pay for that all spring.

 

The something's gonna give meter has spiked.  It's pretty clear that something will happen in the Feb 5-13ish period.  If it doesn't, it probably won't.  

[TT-SEA]

The something's gonna give meter has spiked.  It's pretty clear that something will happen in the Feb 5-13ish period.  If it doesn't, it probably won't.  

 

 

New ECMWF weeklies show the cold weather gets close between February 3-9 then pushes way north as it gets wetter around here.   

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/snowfall-forecast-and-update-on-february/22489857

 

Could end up with lots of mild rain in February after the first week... which would be fine with me for a variety of reasons.    

[BLI snowman]

He is a meteorologist and you are not.  

 

Looks like I have a lot to learn!

[Deweydog]

New ECMWF weeklies show the cold weather gets close between February 3-9 then pushes way north as it gets wetter around here.   

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/snowfall-forecast-and-update-on-february/22489857

 

Could end up with lots of mild rain in February after the first week... which would be fine with me for a variety of reasons.    

 

Lots to worry about...

[Brennan]

New ECMWF weeklies show the cold weather gets close between February 3-9 then pushes way north as it gets wetter around here.   

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/snowfall-forecast-and-update-on-february/22489857

 

Could end up with lots of mild rain in February after the first week... which would be fine with me for a variety of reasons.    

The cold air being that close gives us plenty of opportunity for a big snowfall. You know this Tim. If it lasts 6 days, it’ll satiate us snow lovers until next winter

[TT-SEA]

The cold air being that close gives us plenty of opportunity for a big snowfall. You know this Tim. If it lasts 6 days, it’ll satiate us snow lovers until next winter

 

 

Not saying it wouldn't.    

 

I am also hoping for significant rain in February... not because I enjoy it but rather to get some of it out of the way.   

[TT-SEA]

56 and sunny even at the valley floor out here right now:

 

http://s29.postimg.org/46xkjjk5j/webcamimage.jpg

[Brennan]

Not saying it wouldn't.    

 

I am also hoping for significant rain in February... not because I enjoy it but rather to get some of it out of the way.   

Well if it snows a lot, you can be sure it’s going to rain a lot right after!!!!

[Deweydog]

Pretty impressive...

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=mfr&sid=KOTH&num=72&raw=0

[Skagit Weather]

http://www.kgw.com/news/Rare-winter-wildfires-erupt-in-northern-Coast-Range-241807301.html

That is astounding. Here it is the second wettest month of the year and there are fires. I wonder what this summer would be like if we really did stay dryer than normal through out the spring.

[Skagit Weather]

The 4,200ft mark of Mount Baker has only been below freezing for three hours in the last 10 days. Pretty crazy considering January is one of their better months for snow and most lowland locations have been below freezing for more time.

 

http://www.nwac.us/weatherdata/mtbakerskiarea/10day/

[BLI snowman]

Pretty impressive...

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=mfr&sid=KOTH&num=72&raw=0

 

All time January record there is 74 on 1/29/1940.

[Deweydog]

All time January record there is 74 on 1/29/1940.

 

Looks like Medford might make a run at their's as well.  

[BLI snowman]

Looks like Medford might make a run at their's as well.  

 

Meanwhile a lot of near record lows in the East. Textbook block craziness.

 

Now watch it end up being colder in Seattle than NYC on February 2, in spite of all the hype. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. Vista House sensor G 89

There are many people up there and a few reports are 106 and 110mph gusts along the south facing steps! Awesome! There are others taking readings, so there is a chance of higher gusts yet!

[TT-SEA]

Amazingly... on this gorgeous day with sunshine almost everywhere... the Covington/Auburn area is stubbornly stuck in fog.      The only spot in all of Western WA and OR,   

 

Jim will have no idea how beautiful it was within 5 miles in every direction of him.  

 

60 degrees here and sunny.