January 2014 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Basically we may go from dry mild weather to dry cool weather. Not really what we need. Not a major pattern shift. There is no real major pattern change through the end of the resolution. A little rain, a little mountain snow, but not a major pattern shake up.

 

 

Bingo.

 

Focusing on tiny details at 240 hours is missing the forest for the trees.     It just does not look much different.       

[FroYoBro]

Posting here is quickly beginning to lose its lure....

You certainly don't help anything. You just complain about people being negative, which in turns makes you constantly negative. 

[Deweydog]

Haven't you heard? The bird is the word!!!!!

 

 

Sunny here... as it has been for DAYS ON END!!!

[TT-SEA]

Maybe this ends up being a second-half of February deal... the models usually rush these changes.   

 

1951?    

[Deweydog]

Deal in reality, Tim. Acknowledging that anything good might happen, ever, is clearly delusional wishcasting.

 

Idiotic discussion today!

[Deweydog]

Don't know why people can't just calm the f**k down and wait and see.  Things are obviously still fluxy.  

 

I mean, I know why people can't, but it's still fascinating...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Sunny here... as it has been for DAYS ON END!!!

 

Best Family Guy episode ever.

[TT-SEA]

Best Family Guy episode ever.

 

 

There are so many that could make that list.    

[westiztehbest]

If you look at the surface pressure maps on day 10 it clearly shows an Arctic front has arrived at Bellingham. Strong northerly gradients. Also look at the evolution between day 9 and 10. No question that is poised for good things here.

 

With that low sliding down the coast.  That could be big.  At least per the meteograms for inland areas.  Will be interesting to see what the Euro ensembles say later today.

[snow_wizard]

With that low sliding down the coast.  That could be big.  At least per the meteograms for inland areas.  Will be interesting to see what the Euro ensembles say later today.

Indeed. I'm very happy with the way the ECMWF looks at day 10.

[snow_wizard]

Considerably cooler today than it has been the last couple of days. Low of 26 this morning and currently 43.

[luvssnow_spokane]

On another note: Was a beautiful sunny day here and the fog just came pouring in like something out of the movie the "Mist" .. Honestly it was super cool just seeing it roll up our street. Very cool! 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

On another note: Was a beautiful sunny day here and the fog just came pouring in like something out of the movie the "Mist" .. Honestly it was super cool just seeing it roll up our street. Very cool! 

 

IMG_3897.jpg

That is pretty unusual this late in the day.

[TT-SEA]

Considerably cooler today than it has been the last couple of days. Low of 26 this morning and currently 43.

 

51 and sunny here... about 10 degrees cooler today with the weaker offshore flow.

 

Definitely more sunny than you were thinking for most areas this weekend.    In fact... the entire week was decently sunny for most of King County.

[TT-SEA]

That is pretty unusual this late in the day.

 

 

Offshore flow starting to kick in now... as well as northerly flow through the Sound.    That will tend to push the fog against the hills down there as it clears out from the north and east.

[snow_wizard]

Very bleak looking in Winthrop. Almost no snow and slate gray skies. This has to be about the least snow they ever have this time of year.

[luvssnow_spokane]

That is pretty unusual this late in the day.

I agree that is why I thought it was so odd. It was gorgeous and sunny then bam!

[Snowman Josh]

Hr 240, Hr 240.......

 

Might as well be Hr 5000 because it means nothing.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

We have no snow on the ground in Leavenworth, so that is a record low, or at least tied.

 

Very unusual, but not unprecedented.  Old timers tell me we have had a few snowless winters in the past.  At least one or two of the winters never even had any snowfall.

 

It would suck to then get a big El Nino next year and have another low snow winter, though Leavenworth does get snow in a nino, just not as much as usual. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem hit 24 this morning. Not very springlike!

[snow_wizard]

The best news of the day!  The ECMWF ensemble is by far the prettiest of any run for this potential event to date.  That massive plus anom is in the sweetest spot for us, strongest minus is around 115W, and there is plenty of water trajectory for snow.

 

[snow_wizard]

Silly looking... almost all of North America in the deep freeze?      Something tells me that if the cold stays entrenched in the Midwest then we will continue to see the same general pattern out here.

 

Of course you would say anything that looks good for us is silly.  So freeking predictable.  

 

It's actually more likely than the cold staying in the East all winter with a neutral ENSO.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

The best news of the day!  The ECMWF ensemble is by far the prettiest of any run for this potential event to date.  That massive plus anom is in the sweetest spot for us, strongest minus is around 115W, and there is plenty of water trajectory for snow.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012612/noram/eps_z500a_noram_47.png

 

 

That is pretty nice!

[TT-SEA]

You are impossible Jim. You praise me when I say things you like... and then mock me if I say anything objective that is negative to cold and snow.

 

Its a hopeless circle jerk on here.... only say good things so we can all feel better.

 

Point is... when I see very good things then I am all over it.

 

Most posts deemed negative by you since the middle of December have actually been dead on accurate.

 

I think the reality is that you don't want to have to face what I am saying about the pattern. You just want to ignore those thoughts.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You are impossible Jim. You praise me when I say things you like... and then mock me if I say anything objective that is negative to cold and snow.

 

Its a hopeless circle jerk on here.... only say good things so we can all feel better.

 

Point is... when I see very good things then I am all over it.

 

Most posts deemed negative by you since the middle of December have actually been dead on accurate.

 

A lackluster January was one of the easier calls I've made in the past several years. It was actually more boring then I imagined it would/could be.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Drama.

[snow_wizard]

Arctic blast on the GFS beginning around 276-288hrs.

 

Well supported by the 12z ECMWF ensemble.  I was quite thrilled when I saw the magnitude of the height anomalies it's showing in that time frame.  A very strong signal for that far out.  Feb is going to be our month.

[snow_wizard]

Drama.

 

I'm just sick of the overall attitude on here that it's impossible this winter will turn in our favor before it's over.  In a neutral year it's the most likely outcome.  I'll just sit back and watch the naysayers be dead wrong.

[TT-SEA]

I'm just sick of the overall attitude on here that it's impossible this winter will turn in our favor before it's over. In a neutral year it's the most likely outcome. I'll just sit back and watch the naysayers be dead wrong.

I am almost certain something will happen... might be in the second half of the month.

 

Mark me down at 90%.

[snow_wizard]

Nice to see the temps so much lower today!  Down to 41 now at 1:45pm.

[TT-SEA]

Nice to see the temps so much lower today! Down to 41 now at 1:45pm.

Offshore flow starting... up to 54 here and climbing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Most Willamette Valley locales should end up in the 45-50 range today.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Since the fog rolled in here I have been hovering around 38/39... Quite chilly!

[Snowman5678]

No fog the last few days here. Currently clear skies and 47 here.

[Gradient Keeper]

For what it's worth...

18z NAM doesn't look too shabby

 

500mb HR 84

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_npac_084_500_vort_ht_l.gif

http://meteocentre.com/models/nam_amer_18/GZ_D5_PN_084_0000.gif

[HardDrinkinLincoln]

With 10 days of freezing fog any change will be an improvement.

[Guest Winterdog]

With 10 days of freezing fog any change will be an improvement.

That is a great photograph!

[Gradient Keeper]

With 10 days of freezing fog any change will be an improvement.

Wow, that's neat!

[Parksvillewx]

06Z CFS.

 

Day 10-25

 

 

 

February

 

[HardDrinkinLincoln]

That is a great photograph!

 

 

Wow, that's neat!

 

 

With 10 days of freezing fog any change will be an improvement.

The ice grows out of thin air on anything stationary.  Not bad for an iPhone cam.