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January 2014 in the PNW


TT-SEA

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Zonal flow!

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/eps/2014012700/noram/eps_m_z500a_c_noram_38.png

 

Don't worry it doesn't last!

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/eps/2014012700/noram/eps_m_z500a_c_noram_49.png

And when February ends...

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/eps/2014012700/noram/eps_m_z500a_c_noram_65.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Well I am sure most meteorologists have more experience than you, especially considering your what, 28-34 in age. I really haven't been able to pinpoint your age, just guessing based on some posts you have made.

I am technically a qualified meteorologist. I have degrees in A.S and Physics + Systems Science from U.M.D.

 

And yes, I'm 32. I worked for the military right out of the academic arena, and retired happily in 2012.

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You guys probably don't want to look at the 00z GFS. That model has been flip flopping like a fish out of water.

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You guys probably don't want to look at the 00z GFS. That model has been flip flopping like a fish out of water.

 

Looking at hour 192 it doesn't look like its going anywhere good...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I had over 12" of Snow in March over a decade ago. It was in 2002 or 2003. It CAN happen folks.

 

2002

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10C 850 mb and a ridge, or a Pineapple express with 6" of Rain. Which one is it on the 00z?

It's not a bad run initially, but the pineapple express takes over after day 10 while the east gets slammed again.

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-12 850's at PDX and a snowstorm for Eugene at hour 228.

 

Well then...lol

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It's not a bad run initially, but the pineapple express takes over after day 10 while the east gets slammed again.

It's actually a good run up until day 10. The evolution is possibly a step in the wrong direction though.

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It does kind of go to hell after that...But...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Guest Winterdog

LRC currently stands at a 57 day cycle, lines up well with the above statement.

Has the LRC aligned up well with all the cold outbreaks in the mid-west and east coast?  I don't remember them being unusually cold back at the end of November.

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It looks to me that the ensembles are slightly better than the 18z or they at least extend the cold air for a little bit longer. The mean stays below -5C in Seattle from the 3rd to the 9th which is pretty good.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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41/32 day with clouds throughout. Rain not here yet, but I can see it approaching on radar.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Has the LRC aligned up well with all the cold outbreaks in the mid-west and east coast?  I don't remember them being unusually cold back at the end of November.

Multiple troughs crossed the region end of November, the jet stream was just further north at that point. This is a great site to use:

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/

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Well, whats the Euro going to show in the Long Range? Cold? Death ridge? Place your bets!

Upper low migrating from central California towards southern Oregon. 60kts bulk shear, LI -7, 2400J/kg CAPE. So, basically a Severe Thunderstorm outbreak and Kitten* juggling. If I had to say right now put on the spot that is.

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Upper low migrating from central California towards southern Oregon. 60kts bulk shear, LI -7, 2400J/kg CAPE. So, basically a Severe Thunderstorm outbreak and Kitten* juggling. If I had to say right now put on the spot that is.

 

Dude, you always have great posts.

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00Z ECMWF sucks.

 

Looks more like we just get side-swiped by another mass of arctic air sliding mainly into the Midwest.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014012800!!chart.gif

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014012800!!chart.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Guest Winterdog

The euro is chilly but not great. Maybe that block can finally get its s**t together for the second week of February.

Yeah, I think that second blob of cold air northeast of Barrow at 240 hrs has our name on it.
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