January 2014 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

It honestly feels like winter never started this year.

 

 

Started out awesome... but it came too early which is what we all had in the back of our mind in early December.

[TT-SEA]

Tim are you manipulating images or creating your own photoshop jobs to help win your arguments again?

 

 

 

Please run the precip loop from the 12Z ECMWF run.     Its all there.  

 

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 240

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_240_500_vort_ht.gif

[TT-SEA]

Gfs maps shows offshore flow at that hr.

 

 

Yes... said it was drier.   Gets to the same look as the ECMWF.   Not nearly enough precip if we are going to miss the cold.

[BLI snowman]

 

Ridiculous???   The ECMWF shows it and its extremely accurate with precip.    Are you arguing with me or this:

 

http://s30.postimg.org/qno8o9k4h/Untitled.jpg

 

 

I want rain right now.    Need to have it to have a shot at April and May being nice.   And we will be in Hawaii.    Anything but dry is awesome right now.

 

You are trapping me.    Silly waste of time.    You are purposely saying things that make no sense.   I did not create the ECMWF map.   

 

GFS headed that way as well:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_204_precip_p24.gif

 

Huh? The Euro is horrible with precip at that range, and generates warm fronts and cutoff lows at the drop of a hat. 

[luminen]

I'm hoping for a March 2012 repeat. Niiiice and wet. 

[Snow]

Apparently this is Florida. Multiple car crashes (at least 3 in this pic) and snow-covered freeways..

 

EDIT: Atlanta GA

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-3375-0-18606100-1390958963.jpg

 

Seriously, Atlanta getting snow? SMH.....

[Phil]

Flow turns onshore later in the GFS run, with plenty of precip...the arctic air is bottled up north and spills into the Midwest and East

[BLI snowman]

Yes... said it was drier.   Gets to the same look as the ECMWF.   Not nearly enough precip if we are going to miss the cold.

 

GFS shows snow, at face value. -12c 850mb temps in eastern WA with offshore flow equates to snow

[TT-SEA]

Huh? The Euro is horrible with precip at that range, and generates warm fronts and cutoff lows at the drop of a hat. 

 

Not horrible in my experience.    Way better than the GFS.      I was just reporting what it showed.    You can't say it shows one thing when it clearly shows another.    And then as soon I point it out... you turn it on me and saying I am having a weenie freak out.    That is called projecting.        

[TT-SEA]

GFS shows snow, at face value. -12c 850mb temps in eastern WA with offshore flow equates to snow

 

 

Possibly.    It seems to have more offshore flow and a tighter gradient.   

[TT-SEA]

00Z Canadian at 144 hours.   

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Seriously, Atlanta getting snow? SMH.....

 

Happens almost every year at some point.

[BLI snowman]

Not horrible in my experience.    Way better than the GFS.      I was just reporting what it showed.    You can't say it shows one thing when it clearly shows another.    And then as soon I point it out... you turn it on me and saying I am having a weenie freak out.    That is called projecting.        

 

They're both horrible at that range. And the 12z Euro does show offshore flow in what would undoubtedly be a pretty dry and cool pattern for us. massive precip pockets notwithstanding. Arctic air over eastern WA. Not mild and drizzly here. 00z GFS is even better, and it shows gobs of snow for Bellingham. Not sure that the "warm/crappy" pattern fear is called for at this point, no model run has shown that the first 10 days of the month. 

[Snow]

I just looked at the 00z GFS and it's rather good. From all the talk I would of thought it was bad or everybody lives in Oregon lol. Vancouver BC gets a nice snowstorm, plenty cold up there with offshore flow. Seattle maybe, hard to say, but higher hills should get snow. Oregon all rain but it evens itself out because they already got 8 inches in early December.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM ..... strong offshore flow day 8-9.

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

I just looked at the 00z GFS and it's rather good. From all the talk I would of thought it was bad or everybody lives in Oregon lol. Vancouver BC gets a nice snowstorm, plenty cold up there with offshore flow. Seattle maybe, hard to say, but higher hills should get snow. Oregon all rain but it evens itself out because they already got 8 inches in early December.

? It's not warm or anything, but it's dry and boring....

[TT-SEA]

They're both horrible at that range. And the 12z Euro does show offshore flow in what would undoubtedly be a pretty dry and cool pattern for us. massive precip pockets notwithstanding. Arctic air over eastern WA. Not mild and drizzly here. 00z GFS is even better, and it shows gobs of snow for Bellingham. Not sure that the "warm/crappy" pattern fear is called for at this point, no model run has shown that the first 10 days of the month. 

 

The 12Z ECMWF was not exactly cold... sort of mild and ripe for the warm/crappy situation you mention.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014012812!!chart.gif

[OldManWx]

Yep... good news is we will have spring to see a great winter pattern... As always!

But we did break out of that pattern last spring with a very dry March and decent April and first part of May.  Maybe we can get that again?

[TT-SEA]

00z GEM ..... strong offshore flow day 8-9.

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif

 

 

I like the look of that... except I really do want lots of rain if we are not going to get snow.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Oh well.... Onto 00z EURO! right? .... right..... 1 hour 38 minutes... pftttttt

[Sometimesdylan]

latest gfs keeps us in the arctic chiller for the whole run... might have to put my snowboard away and get some ice climbing gear out...

[Gradient Keeper]

But we did break out of that pattern last spring with a very dry March and decent April and first part of May.  Maybe we can get that again?

If we do we're screwed with a bad drought coming, water restrictions, river and lake levels low effecting outdoor activities, fishing, etc. Perhaps a very severe fire season....

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z GFS output is not exactly thrilling.   Thickness in the 530s most of the run (SEA).    Hard to get snow with those parameters.   

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=ksea&submit.x=0&submit.y=0&submit=submit

[Gradient Keeper]

The 00Z GFS output is not exactly thrilling.   Thickness in the 530s most of the run (SEA).    Hard to get snow with those parameters.   

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=ksea&submit.x=0&submit.y=0&submit=submit

Quite bleak...

[BLI snowman]

00z GEM ..... strong offshore flow day 8-9.

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif

 

 

Looks awful.

 

The 12Z ECMWF was not exactly cold... sort of mild and ripe for the warm/crappy situation you mention.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014012812!!chart.gif

 

It's always milder for us than the GFS so that's not surprising, at face value the pattern is pretty cold with the edge of the arctic airmass' trough axis over eastern WA and offshore flow over western WA. In that setup, dewpoints would be low and outflow areas especially would be cold with any precip. 850mb temps below freezing. Probably snow.

 

Look, concern is definitely warranted if things continue to trend east as climo says they probably will. But as of yet, no recent model run has been especially crappy for us in the February 1-9 period. Snow opportunities and offshore flow galore.

[TT-SEA]

If we do we're screwed with a bad drought coming, water restrictions, river and lake levels low effecting outdoor activities, fishing, etc. Perhaps a very severe fire season....

 

 

I am so torn on what to cheer for right now.

 

I know we need lots of precip and need it soon... I know we need lots of mountain snow and need it yesterday.   I like cold... but which usually ends up being dry.    I like dry and enjoy being outdoors... but if we don't get precip now we will be getting it all summer when I REALLY want to be outside.    

 

Time to go on vacation!

[BLI snowman]

The 00Z GFS output is not exactly thrilling.   Thickness in the 530s most of the run (SEA).    Hard to get snow with those parameters.   

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=ksea&submit.x=0&submit.y=0&submit=submit

 

Bellingham

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kbli&submit.x=0&submit.y=0&submit=submit

 

Abbotsford

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=cyxx&submit.x=0&submit.y=0&submit=submit

 

Awful pattern that's not even close to snow on that run.

[TT-SEA]

 

Look, concern is definitely warranted if things continue to trend east as climo says they probably will. But as of yet, no recent model run has been especially crappy for us in the February 1-9 period. Snow opportunities and offshore flow galore.

 

I guess I am also just playing out the trend to its logical end... and climo.   

[Snow]

The 00Z GFS output is not exactly thrilling.   Thickness in the 530s most of the run (SEA).    Hard to get snow with those parameters.   

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=ksea&submit.x=0&submit.y=0&submit=submit

 

Quite bleak...

 

You don't need cold thickness if the cold pool east of the cascades is cold with offshore flow. The Gorge in Oregon had ice/snow last night because of the cold pool. Crown Point recently had gust to 122mph because of the colder than usual pool eastside.

[TT-SEA]

Bellingham

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kbli&submit.x=0&submit.y=0&submit=submit

 

Abbotsford

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=cyxx&submit.x=0&submit.y=0&submit=submit

 

Awful pattern that's not even close to snow on that run.

 

 

There is actually precip shown AND its cold enough around 216 hours.    

 

SEA is quite a bit worse... as would be expected. 

 

But what is that worth this far out?

[BLI snowman]

I guess I am also just playing out the trend to its logical end... and climo.   

 

You can't always do that, though, because the models sway back and forth before every big, potentially cold pattern shakeup. It happened in December, when plenty of computer model indecisiveness occurred. It happened in January 2011, when we got horribly screwed. It happened in December 2008 when we got buried. It'll happen some more in the next 10 days.

 

We may or may not see a decent event out of this, but the fact that the models are being inconsistent about it is about as surprising as a car bomb in Baghdad. 

[BLI snowman]

There is actually precip shown AND its cold enough around 216 hours.    

 

SEA is quite a bit worse... as would be expected. 

 

But what is that worth this far out?

 

Very little indeed.

 

But the theme of showing cold, offshore flow continues. That's good enough for me at this point. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Is anyone having fun?

[TT-SEA]

Very little indeed.

 

But the theme of showing cold, offshore flow continues. That's good enough for me at this point. 

 

Fair enough.

[TT-SEA]

Its raining!!

[brody]

I am so torn on what to cheer for right now.

 

 

Cheer for rain, that's where most of your focus has been lately which is ******* odd to say the least

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Its raining!!

I now know how you had so many posts on the old forum.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles out soon!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Ensembles - Portland

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png