January 2014 in the PNW

[Jesse]

Well, for the first time this winter, the stratosphere is beginning to favor you guys.

 

This is good news given the stratosphere has been dominating the macro-scale boundary conditions all winter.

 

We have had absolutely zero ENSO/AAM inertia this winter..and a very weak, submissive MJO/RMM due to the incredibly anomalous QBO stress fields.

 

The result of the said hemispheric shear regime has been persistent NPAC height rises. While the tropical forcings have been able to knock the ridging/wave breaking around, the general theme of rising heights somewhere around the NPAC continued given the momentum above the ferrel cell rifts.

Sooo...the GFS is wrong?

[Phil]

Hey Phil, I really appreciate your contributions to the thread!

 

To be fair, I know that you have been asked (many times) before to speak in layman terms. I have a feeling that you are aware that few (if any) posters aren't going to comprehend your third/final sentence.

 

You're a smart guy, clearly, and as much as you know about the ENSO/AAM inertia and MJO/RMM submissiveness in the QBO stress field, you are also smart enough to know that it has (often) been asked of you to clarify what you mean when you make posts referencing these types of acronyms.

 

Perhaps start your own thread again if it is difficult for you to "dumb down" your references. I think many of us, including myself, are very interested in how these "things" influence our weather, but it's essentially useless if we don't understand what they mean, right? It would be great if you could elaborate. However, if your explanation of what these complicated terms mean ends up spawning even more complicated terms, then it's probably best to not reference them at all, yes?

 

Thanks in advance!

 

Probably would've been better to PM this. I'm pretty sure the "acronyms" used are fairly obvious and easy to understand..

 

QBO: Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, (an oscillation of the equatorial stratospheric windfield).

 

AAM: Atmospheric Angular Momentum (Windflow relative to Earth's rotation, noted as a +/- deviation).

 

Tropical Forcing: Convective Schemes influencing the Hadley Cells, Rossby Waves, and ENSO/tropical AAM.

 

ENSO: (Seriously?)

 

That good?

[Jesse]

Love the trend on the Euro and Canadian. Hoping the GFS catches up. Even the GFS ensembles are just ok.

 

Euro and Canadian lead the way in the mid-long range for the arctic blast in early December as well. GFS was waffling until 4-5 days out.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM/EURO were both very good. For PDX 850mb temps are quite similar around -12c or so. GFS is a notch or 2 warmer. I don't have to tell you how close the pattern is to a full on massive blast, but just as well if the ridge were to slide 5 degrees east we'd only see a glancing blow for eastern WA. I'm encouraged, but not on board yet.

[Snow]

12z GEM/EURO were both very good. For PDX 850mb temps are quite similar around -12c or so. GFS is a notch or 2 warmer. I don't have to tell you how close the pattern is to a full on massive blast, but just as well if the ridge were to slide 5 degrees east we'd only see a glancing blow for eastern WA. I'm encouraged, but not on board yet.

 

Why would you want colder temps than that? In Dec 2008, PDX only dropped down to -10C. It's more important you get moisture and pull the gorge winds. We all saw PDX get -15C temps this past December with not much precip.

[Bryant]

Probably would've been better to PM this. I'm pretty sure the "acronyms" used are fairly obvious and easy to understand..

QBO: Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, (an oscillation of the equatorial stratospheric windfield).

AAM: Atmospheric Angular Momentum (Windflow relative to Earth's rotation, noted as a +/- deviation).

Tropical Forcing: Convective Schemes influencing the Hadley Cells, Rossby Waves, and ENSO/tropical AAM.

ENSO: (Seriously?)

That good?

This. I felt it was obvious as well

[Gradient Keeper]

Why would you want colder temps than that? In Dec 2008, PDX only dropped down to -10C. It's more important you get moisture and pull the gorge winds. We all saw PDX get -15C temps this past December with not much precip.

I never said I did want colder temps. I'm well aware of all of this.

[Snow]

I never said I did want colder temps. I'm well aware of all of this.

 

Ok I get you.

[brody]

Ok I get you.

He's ( Rob ) is a tricky one

 

Gotta watch his wording and " quirky " nature

[bainbridgekid]

Surprised this hasn't been posted. Looking too closely at details is silly but it's still nice to see inside 100 hours.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/ww_snow24.96.0000.gif

 

More than likely this period ends up much drier IMO.

[TT-SEA]

Surprised this hasn't been posted. Looking too closely at details is stupid but it's still nice to see inside 100 hours.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/ww_snow24.96.0000.gif

 

We all missed it... too busy ripping on the GFS solution!

 

Although... the much more reliable ECMWF precip output is much lighter and closer to the coast with it in that timeframe.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF also takes almost all the precip down through Oregon with its arctic outbreak next Wednesday/Thursday.   

 

Almost totally dry in WA from Sunday though Thursday evening (only goes out to 180 hours).

 

Its actually mostly sunny up here on that run on Wednesday and Thursday... and clear Wednesday night.

[Deweydog]

12Z ECMWF also takes almost all the precip down through Oregon with its arctic outbreak next Wednesday/Thursday.   

 

Almost totally dry in WA from Sunday though Thursday evening (only goes out to 180 hours).

 

The 500mb progression at this point is far from resolved.  Fretting about surface details is definitely the way to go at this point.  

[TT-SEA]

The 500mb progression at this point is far from resolved.  Fretting about surface details is definitely the way to go at this point.  

 

Not fretting.   Just reporting.    Sunny and cold sounds very nice to me!

 

You assume too much.   I only really fret about snow between Thanksgiving and New Years.

[Brennan]

It is going to get chilly... If it’s dry, oh well. At least it will be cold and maybe I’ll be able to ice skate on a small pond. The 500mb progression may not be resolved, but it doesn’t look like it’s even close to digging up a low offshore. At this point I would have to assume it will get cold, and we’ll have some sort of overrunning event on the transition to warmer weather.

[Deweydog]

It is going to get chilly... If it’s dry, oh well. At least it will be cold and maybe I’ll be able to ice skate on a small pond. The 500mb progression may not be resolved, but it doesn’t look like it’s even close to digging up a low offshore. At this point I would have to assume it will get cold, and we’ll have some sort of overrunning event on the transition to warmer weather.

 

I don't think it's the likely scenario, but there's been plenty of solutions recently which support one.  

[TT-SEA]

I don't think it's the likely scenario, but there's been plenty of solutions recently which support one.  

 

 

Would also seem to favor a coastal and Oregon event if it does happen.       

[Deweydog]

Would also seem to favor a coastal and Oregon event if it does happen.       

 

Not necessarily.

[BLI snowman]

Surprised this hasn't been posted. Looking too closely at details is silly but it's still nice to see inside 100 hours.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/ww_snow24.96.0000.gif

 

More than likely this period ends up much drier IMO.

 

Euro shows snow showers on Monday as well.

 

12z Euro shows a huge overrunning event at days 7-8. Seems to be a theme for the last couple of days. Next weekend could be pretty fun.

[bainbridgekid]

Details on the 18z not as cold as the 12z and way Easy of the Euro through hour 180. Still chilly though.

[BLI snowman]

GFS still way further east with everything. 

[Deweydog]

GFS still way further east with everything. 

 

Gotta give it full marks at this point for consistency...

[BLI snowman]

Gotta give it full marks at this point for consistency...

 

And 18z goes apeshit after the resolution change right as you say that 

[Deweydog]

And 18z goes apeshit after the resolution change right as you say that 

 

That's par for the course for pretty much any GFS effort.  

[Guest Winterdog]

Please delete this post.

[50shadesofvan]

I'm sure they will reopen. They have two months where they can still score some dumps. People in Vancouver Island would be willing to go late in the season given how snow starved it has been, so they would be smart to open whenever they can. I'm just surprised because I have always found Mount Washington to be one of the snowiest in the southern BC region. I can't believe they didn't open until Jan.12!

 

I have medium to high confidence Mt. Washington will re-open by mid-month as well: http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/1/30/a-toast-to-a-fresh-month 

 

Heck, next month is looking a whole lot more dynamic, and interesting when compared to the past two tranquil weeks. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Why would you want colder temps than that? In Dec 2008, PDX only dropped down to -10C. It's more important you get moisture and pull the gorge winds. We all saw PDX get -15C temps this past December with not much precip.

 

 

I never said I did want colder temps. I'm well aware of all of this.

 

 

Ok I get you.

 

 

He's ( Rob ) is a tricky one

 

Gotta watch his wording and " quirky " nature

Oooo, yeah my bad if I seemed abrupt or abrasive there it was not my intent.

[Deweydog]

Please delete this post.

 

Considered deleted.  

[Deweydog]

25 years ago tonight it was about to get very chilly.  

[Skagit Weather]

Ensembles are okay, but not outstanding. Mean is very similar to the operational except for February 8-10 where the operational gets pretty cold for a short while and the mean warms a few degrees.

 

[Jesse]

Not a big fan of the 18z ensembles. There are some cold members but the majority of them warm us up in the mid-range.

[Skagit Weather]

With .48" of rain today this January with 4.75" of rain became my wettest month since last April. 1.34" in the last two days.

[Jesse]

Why would you want colder temps than that? In Dec 2008, PDX only dropped down to -10C. It's more important you get moisture and pull the gorge winds. We all saw PDX get -15C temps this past December with not much precip.

 

Contrary to popular belief, cold air helps if you are wanting snow in the western lowlands.

 

I think the unusually dry nature of our past few arctic outbreaks have given people the inaccurate notion that ultra-cold airmasses are somehow bad for snow around here. Historically that is not the case. It's a mixed bag.

[Deweydog]

Contrary to popular belief, cold air helps if you are wanting snow in the western lowlands.

 

I think the unusually dry nature of our past few arctic outbreaks have given people the inaccurate notion that ultra-cold airmasses are somehow bad for snow around here. Historically that is not the case. It's a mixed bag.

 

He's actually pretty spot on in a rough cut way.

 

Look at our coldest air masses of the, say, last 35 years or so.  December '78, December '83, February '89, December '90, December '98, December '09, December '13.  Not a comprehensive list, but these are the highlights.  All were not efficient snow producers on a regional level for pretty obvious reasons, associated greatly with the properties of a very cold, well-supported air mass at the 500mb level.  It's basic weather physics.  It's obviously not universal, but we live in a region where more marginal situations, relatively speaking, are far more likely to create widespread precipitation.  

[Deweydog]

Not a big fan of the 18z ensembles. There are some cold members but the majority of them warm us up in the mid-range.

 

Enough with the sports-related stuff, please.  

[Jesse]

46/39 today with heavy showers at times. There is new snow on the hills around town, above about 2,500'.

 

Currently 39 with light rain.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 00z tonight will be magical.

[GHweatherChris]

Ensembles are okay, but not outstanding. Mean is very similar to the operational except for February 8-10 where the operational gets pretty cold for a short while and the mean warms a few degrees.

 

1-20-14model.png

But there is some moisture show on some ensembles when its cold.

[Snowman Josh]

Cooommpaaaanyyy!!!!!  Is always on the run!!!!!!

[Jesse]

Cooommpaaaanyyy!!!!!  Is always on the run!!!!!!

 

Destiny is the rising sun.