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January 2014 in the PNW


TT-SEA

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I'm just not buying the digging the EURO is showing...given very little offshore amplitude, it just doesn't seem realistic.  I guess we will see what happens.  The pattern is just super awkward/frustrating, as it's almost awesome...yet all these stupid cut-off features put a dent in the great pattern.  Like what happened a few weeks back.  Seems to be the story of this Winter.

 

Both the EURO and GFS are showing another major pattern change in about 10 days, with strong zonal flow and a strong GOA low...great for the mountain snowpack...and great for rain lovers. :)

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I'm just not buying the digging the EURO is showing...given very little offshore amplitude, it just doesn't seem realistic.  I guess we will see what happens.  The pattern is just super awkward/frustrating, as it's almost awesome...yet all these stupid cut-off features put a dent in the great pattern.  Like what happened a few weeks back.  Seems to be the story of this Winter.

 

Both the EURO and GFS are showing another major pattern change in about 10 days, with strong zonal flow and a strong GOA low...great for the mountain snowpack...and great for rain lovers. :)

 

You'll be a rain lover for about five days. After that you'll be ready for the next pattern, and refusing to purchase something.

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I just noticed something in the ECMWF that makes me believe tonights run will be the best yet. Stayed tuned..........

Could you give a hint?

 

I do like how the 18z GFS kept things cold for a day or two longer than previous runs. The ensemble control model was insanely cold for a long time.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm just not buying the digging the EURO is showing...given very little offshore amplitude, it just doesn't seem realistic.  I guess we will see what happens.  The pattern is just super awkward/frustrating, as it's almost awesome...yet all these stupid cut-off features put a dent in the great pattern.  Like what happened a few weeks back.  Seems to be the story of this Winter.

 

Both the EURO and GFS are showing another major pattern change in about 10 days, with strong zonal flow and a strong GOA low...great for the mountain snowpack...and great for rain lovers. :)

That's not totally true. The pattern is actually blocked up to about 80 degrees north in a haphazard way at the time the ECMWF shows that digging. The Canadian has been similar the past couple of runs.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I already know where this is going so I'll check back later

Why is everyone speaking in riddles?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The NAM strongly suggests there will be some light snow Sunday night. We'll see, but I am always suspicious of the NAM in cases like this.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The block looks more healthy on the 0z in the day 3 to day 4 time frame than previous runs. 850mb temps drop to about -8 Sunday night.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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At hour 174 I would definitely call the 00z a step in the right direction. 522 thickness line well south of PDX. I think it still goes zonal in the long range.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Definitely some potential for overrunning later on.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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GFS ALERT!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The 00z is close to greatness in the long range. Still pretty D**n good!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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00Z Canadian at 144 hours:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00z GFS had potential, but I'm not that big of a fan.....

 

 

Way out there... and way too many moving parts.

 

Next week is pretty much dry.     The rest is just dream land for now.

 

I am thinking the Canadian and ECMWF are more on track.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You always have to ruin our fun.

 

Well come on... if you want to celebrate snow at 240 hours then go ahead.     Seems a tad premature to me.    But that just me.    :)

 

I think the next 7 days are in a little better focus and there is some potential.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Tim, you missed the sarcasm part. There is nothing to be negative about.

 

Not being negative.

 

Just don't care what it shows beyond 168 hours.   :)

 

Plenty cold next week.   Just need some kind of low to spin up.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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As of now, 00z GFS gets entire region cold, then overrunning event. Vancouver BC will get a nice overrunning event and maybe even alot more, maybe Seattle too. Portland is kind of sketchy but they always have the gorge winds. It's still to far out too know for sure where the system will track. The next several model runs will be absolutely critical. I bet people living in Vancouver BC are getting excited now.

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=CYVR

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