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January 2014 in the PNW


TT-SEA

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No snow storm initially as it veers north but a little later on we might get hit around hour 288 lol...! Nice... That initial push warms us up but we rebound a little

That would be a nice over running event. And might not even warm up to rain for some places west of cascades before the colder air came back in behind.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Too bad it can't be cold right now here... the precip just goes on and on and on and on.

 

Looks like the optimistic runs that showed genuine cold air getting in here this weekend were totally wrong.   Looks like it will be drizzling and 37 degrees all weekend at my house... day and night.   I doubt my temperature moves more than 2 degrees before Monday. 

 

Hope I am wrong... but it looks like the stationary band of moisture is locked in place until the kicker hopefully arrives on Monday.

 

Bellingham got into some outflow today... just not enough to push it south though the hills around here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Too bad it can't be cold right now here... the precip just goes on and on and on and on.

 

Looks like the optimistic runs that showed genuine cold air getting in here this weekend were totally wrong.   Looks like it will be drizzling and 37 degrees all weekend at my house... day and night.   I doubt my temperature moves more than 2 degrees before Monday. 

 

Hope I am wrong... but it looks like the stationary band of moisture is locked in place until the kicker hopefully arrives on Monday.

 

Bellingham got into some outflow today... just not enough to push it south though the hills around here.

Can I try some of what you are smoking?  Going to clear out tonight most likely: http://www.komonews.com/weather/satellite/137459093.html

  • God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer.

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Too bad it can't be cold right now here... the precip just goes on and on and on and on.

 

Looks like the optimistic runs that showed genuine cold air getting in here this weekend were totally wrong.   Looks like it will be drizzling and 37 degrees all weekend at my house... day and night.   I doubt my temperature moves more than 2 degrees before Monday. 

 

Hope I am wrong... but it looks like the stationary band of moisture is locked in place until the kicker hopefully arrives on Monday.

 

Bellingham got into some outflow today... just not enough to push it south though the hills around here.

Way too negative :) Cold and Snow is coming! :blink:

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Statement as of 2:59 PM PST on January 31, 2014

 

 

 

... Colder weather expected next week...

 

A marked cooling trend is expected from Monday through Wednesday

of next week... as an air mass with origins in the Yukon spreads

into western Washington via the Fraser River canyon.

 

The more notable temperature drop will begin on Monday and

continue through Wednesday... with the coldest weather expected

around the middle of next week. By wednesay... temperatures will

run about 15 degrees under normal readings for early February.

Over The Lowlands... this means that morning lows around Wednesday

and Thursday should range from the mid teens to lower 20s... while

high temperatures in the 30s should be common.

 

Windy Fraser outflow conditions will also develop late Sunday and

continue for much of next week. This pattern results in brisk

northeast winds from Sumas and Bellingham out past the San Juan

Islands... with wind gusts in excess of 40 mph common. Wind and cold

temperatures could result in wind chill values in the single

digits. Fraser outflow also leads to strong northeast winds over

the northwest olympic peninsula. Another windy location would be

from Stevens and Snoqualmie passes west into the Cascade

foothills... where gusty east winds should occur at times next

week.

 

Lastly... a few snow showers or flurries are possible from Sunday

night through Tuesday. However... the air mass will be getting

drier... limiting the coverage of snow and keeping amounts quite

light.

 

Check back this weekend for updates on the anticipated cold

weather next week.

  • God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer.

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Can I try some of what you are smoking?  Going to clear out tonight most likely: http://www.komonews.com/weather/satellite/137459093.html

 

:lol:

 

Nope.

 

Here we are right now:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/intcld.12.0000.gif

 

 

And here is tomorrow morning:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/intcld.30.0000.gif

 

 

And tomorrow afternoon:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/intcld.36.0000.gif

 

And Sunday morning:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/intcld.51.0000.gif

 

 

With so much low level moisture in place... particularly out here in the hills... the temperature will not budge all weekend.

 

Maybe Monday.    And maybe with some snow.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yep, and anyone who thinks that it will stay the same temp and wet/cloudy through Sunday is just plain crazy.

 

You do not know how to read the models.   

 

Things have changed for this weekend.    The clouds and moisture are done moving south.    They will remain in place now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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:lol:

 

Nope.

 

Here we are right now:

 

With so much low level moisture in place... particularly out here in the hills... the temperature will not budge all weekend.

 

Maybe Monday.    And maybe with some snow.

Come on Tim

 

You live in an area where orographic lift allows for clouds to hang on longer and also squeeze out what little low level moisture is left, to say that everyone will be cloudy all weekend and drizzly more specifically at your location is just lunacy.

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Come on Tim

 

You live in an area where orographic lift allows for clouds to hang on longer and also squeeze out what little low level moisture is left, to say that everyone will be cloudy all weekend and drizzly more specifically at your location is just lunacy.

 

 

Did not say everyone would have drizzle all weekend.   I said it would be drizzly with a stationary temperature all weekend HERE.

 

It will be cloudy for most of Western WA this weekend.    That much is pretty obvious by looking at any model.    That means we have to wait until Monday to get into sub-freezing lows.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You do not know how to read the models.   

 

Things have changed for this weekend.    The clouds and moisture are done moving south.    They will remain in place now.

I can read the models and I've read the Seattle AFD about low level moisture hanging on strong but I just don't see that low level moisture hanging on with winds turning offshore and Fraser outflow commencing. I could be wrong but doubtful you aren't getting some partial clearing by tomorrow afternoon.

 

Also, the closed surface low will probably be set up by Sunday evening so that will be the best time for some snow showers. Probably a dry stint early Monday the way I'm seeing things.

  • God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer.

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I can read the models and I've read the Seattle AFD about low level moisture hanging on strong but I just don't see that low level moisture hanging on with winds turning offshore and Fraser outflow commencing. I could be wrong but doubtful you aren't getting some partial clearing by tomorrow afternoon.

 

Also, the closed surface low will probably be set up by Sunday evening so that will be the best time for some snow showers. Probably a dry stint early Monday the way I'm seeing things.

 

 

Dude... there is no offshore flow or outflow this weekend!!   

 

That was shown earlier but is completely gone now.    Everything is shown to be moving north again this weekend.   Cold air does not come south again until late Sunday at the earliest.

 

There is NO WAY the flow turns offshore until probably Tuesday morning.    Outflow should start up again maybe Sunday night and reach Seattle on Monday.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Too bad it can't be cold right now here... the precip just goes on and on and on and on.

 

Looks like the optimistic runs that showed genuine cold air getting in here this weekend were totally wrong.   Looks like it will be drizzling and 37 degrees all weekend at my house... day and night.   I doubt my temperature moves more than 2 degrees before Monday. 

 

Hope I am wrong... but it looks like the stationary band of moisture is locked in place until the kicker hopefully arrives on Monday.

 

Bellingham got into some outflow today... just not enough to push it south though the hills around here.

Thats too bad, I was lucky enough to have partly to mostly sunny skies today. Was a nice and cool day!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Dude... there is no offshore flow or outflow this weekend!!   

 

That was shown earlier but is completely gone now.    Everything is shown to be moving north again this weekend.   Cold air does not come south again until late Sunday at the earliest.

 

There is NO WAY the flow turns offshore until probably Tuesday morning.    Outflow should start up again maybe Sunday night and reach Seattle on Monday.  

Yep, the outflow gradient is weakening right now, they talked about it in the Seattle NWS this afternoon.

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Huge changes going on in the stratosphere right now, I counted 7 different breaking eddys on last night's 00z RAOB analysis. This time favoring the PNW and western Cadada.

 

The PV is going to bifurcate, and coupled PVA's will disperse and dampen. Convection will soon erupt over the IO/WPAC as CDS support is lessened..expect that Hadley Cell to begin pumping, as the Walker Cell type flow becomes jostled.

Will this bring any drought relief to the west coast later this season?

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I hope the 18Z GFS does not start a trend of backing off... because the models have already backed off for this weekend as the time approached.

 

Come on 00Z GFS!!!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Dude... there is no offshore flow or outflow this weekend!!   

 

That was shown earlier but is completely gone now.    Everything is shown to be moving north again this weekend.   Cold air does not come south again until late Sunday at the earliest.

 

There is NO WAY the flow turns offshore until probably Tuesday morning.    Outflow should start up again maybe Sunday night and reach Seattle on Monday.

I'm just not buying that per the models is what I am saying. You will see the sun tomorrow.

  • God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer.

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Cleared out here in the last two hours and the temperature is now dropping. After .12" precipitation early this morning, bringing my total for the month up to 5.21", I had a high of 41F. Currently at the low for the day of 35F.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Yep, the outflow gradient is weakening right now, they talked about it in the Seattle NWS this afternoon.

 

Josh is WAY behind the curve.    Should set his sights on 3 days from now and not have any expectation for the weekend.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm just not buying that per the models is what I am saying. You will see the sun tomorrow.

 

:lol:

 

Whatever.

 

I am 100% sure you are wrong.    But that comes from studying the models endlessly for the last decade and knowing how this works out here.   

 

Not only will it not be sunny out here tomorrow... it will be foggy and drizzling.    Seattle should just be cloudy.

 

My only concern and complaint is that it was originally shown to be colder and more clear.     Don't like having to wait another 3 days out here.   But that is my problem!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I can read the models and I've read the Seattle AFD about low level moisture hanging on strong but I just don't see that low level moisture hanging on with winds turning offshore and Fraser outflow commencing. I could be wrong but doubtful you aren't getting some partial clearing by tomorrow afternoon.

 

Also, the closed surface low will probably be set up by Sunday evening so that will be the best time for some snow showers. Probably a dry stint early Monday the way I'm seeing things.

There won't be any outflow this weekend. 

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Map seems pretty accurate. The schools up here seem to close for around 3-6 inches as illustrated by the fact that they stayed open in December when we had about three inches on the ground. The schools have also been burned. In February 2011 two buses in the Mount Vernon school district slid into ditches with kids on them before they canceled school with most of the kids already at the high school. They bused everybody to school and 30 minutes later were taking them back home. Seattle on the other hand seems to cancel when there is even the possibility of snow.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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There won't be any outflow this weekend. 

 

 

I am already annoyed with the weekend based on my earlier expecation... don't need to hear people with silly expectations and who are jumping the gun.   :lol:    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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:lol:

 

Whatever.

 

I am 100% sure you are wrong.    But that comes from studying the models endlessly for the last decade and knowing how this works out here.   

 

Not only will it not be sunny out here tomorrow... it will be foggy and drizzling.    Seattle should just be cloudy.

 

My only concern and complaint is that it was originally shown to be colder and more clear.     Don't like having to wait another 3 days out here.   But that is my problem!

I may see a few sunbreaks tomorrow, but yea, it will be mostly cloudy for a couple more days in most areas.

 

On another note, the air does have a little bite to it today, I wasn't really paying attention but 925 temps are down to 1c according to the Hoquiam sounding report today.

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I may see a few sunbreaks tomorrow, but yea, it will be mostly cloudy for a couple more days in most areas.

 

Definitely a better scenario out there... and in Bellingham.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Josh is WAY behind the curve.    Should set his sights on 3 days from now and not have any expectation for the weekend.

:lol:

 

Whatever.

 

I am 100% sure you are wrong.    But that comes from studying the models endlessly for the last decade and knowing how this works out here.   

 

Not only will it not be sunny out here tomorrow... it will be foggy and drizzling.    Seattle should just be cloudy.

 

My only concern and complaint is that it was originally shown to be colder and more clear.     Don't like having to wait another 3 days out here.   But that is my problem!

Ok, let's shift gears a little. You are correct, "YOU" probably will not get cold because of clear skies alone. That being said, upper air temperatures will start falling during the day Sunday, coupled with low level convergence we could definitely see some snow here in the PSCZ. Will it amount to a lot? Probably not. But there is the possibility of cold air deepening rapidly, say a 42 degree to 33-34 degree drop in a matter of an hour or two due to heavy precip.

 

I never underestimate the PSCZ due to one evening back in November of 2005. Went to bed and it was 62 degrees at 11 PM. Woke up at 4:30 AM and it was 33 and snowing heavily. The trough and associated low pressure came ashore just 100 miles south of forecast. All it takes.

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  • God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer.

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Ok, let's shift gears a little. You are correct, "YOU" probably will not get cold because of clear skies alone. That being said, upper air temperatures will start falling during the day Sunday, coupled with low level convergence we could definitely see some snow here in the PSCZ. Will it amount to a lot? Probably not. But there is the possibility of cold air deepening rapidly, say a 42 degree to 33-34 degree drop in a matter of an hour or two due to heavy precip.

 

I never underestimate the PSCZ due to one evening back in November of 2005. Went to bed and it was 62 degrees at 11 PM. Woke up at 4:30 AM and it was 33 and snowing heavily. The trough and associated low pressure came ashore just 100 miles south of forecast. All it takes.

 

 

Monday dude.  

 

Monday.

 

Sunday is not going to happen.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Of course... when the cold air does arrive this is what the 12Z WRF is showing for Monday afternoon.    :lol:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.84.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Monday dude.  

 

Monday.

 

Sunday is not going to happen.

That's funny, you said Tuesday a second ago. Which one is it? :) Please stop calling me dude as well, please.

 

And for the record I said late Sunday/early Monday. Plenty cold by then with upper air support and possible convergence. I didn't say it would be the storm of the century but the possibility is there. I can definitely see some convergence snow setting up off of Vancouver Island around game time with this feature slowly drifting south as we head towards early Monday.

  • God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer.

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Of course... when the cold air does arrive this is what the 12Z WRF is showing for Monday afternoon.    :lol:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.84.0000.gif

Ya, because those models always pick up convergence zones, they nail them "rolls eyes". Quit looking at some visible satellite model for 48-72 hours out and use your noggin.

 

Either one of our scenarios is possible.

  • God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer.

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Monday dude.  

 

Monday.

 

Sunday is not going to happen.

I don't know about that. The WRF is showing cold air invading pretty good Sunday and especially Sunday evening. I'm hoping we can somehow manage to clear out to some extent during the weekend.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Pretty interesting that 3 of the past 4 GFS runs prolong the cold pattern and give us decent snowfall. Increasing ensemble support for that also.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I don't know about that. The WRF is showing cold air invading pretty good Sunday and especially Sunday evening. I'm hoping we can somehow manage to clear out to some extent during the weekend.

 

+1

 

Timmy likes to disagree just to disagree. Reminds me of my ex-girlfriends, yes, all of them.

  • God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer.

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That's funny, you said Tuesday a second ago. Which one is it? :) Please stop calling me dude as well, please.

 

And for the record I said late Sunday/early Monday. Plenty cold by then with upper air support and possible convergence. I didn't say it would be the storm of the century but the possibility is there. I can definitely see some convergence snow setting up off of Vancouver Island around game time with this feature slowly drifting south as we head towards early Monday.

 

Tuesday for offshore flow.   Read carefully now.   I know what I am saying.    The flow will be onshore down here with any c-zone.    That is how c-zones usually work.  

 

And early Monday is the best shot.    Not Sunday.   We have football to focus on anyways.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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My gut is telling me that there will be a widespread significant snow event sometime between the 7th and 15th for Western Washington.  Whether it be a surprise low spinning up or a big transition event.

The GFS has been advertising some good snows in the 8 to 12 day period. Looks like a possible brief warm up and then colder again. Transitions are where we often get good snows. Today's ECMWF had widespread snowfall late in the run, but doesn't go cold again.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I don't know about that. The WRF is showing cold air invading pretty good Sunday and especially Sunday evening. I'm hoping we can somehow manage to clear out to some extent during the weekend.

 

 

Jim... this is going to be a slow process now.   Clearing will really come on Monday afternoon and evening and THEN it will cool down.    

 

We always jump the gun on this stuff.    It never gets truly cold until the true clearing commences.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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