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January 2014 in the PNW


TT-SEA

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It will suck. I'm not looking forward to it. The continental cold really isn't that bad until the winds kick in. It was below -5F for most of the middle of the week last week here but I could barely tell with the calm winds. Of course, once you take your gloves off and your hands start to feel pain, you know it's cold... but I've never felt as cold out East as I do out west. The humid cold is just bone chilling. You just shiver in the dampness.

Then you must have leather skin and a fast metabolism, lol. That blast in early Jan was ridiculous. It went from 43F to -18F in 12hrs on 50mph winds, and it literally hurt to be outside.

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Hmmmm.....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR250 PM PST THU JAN 16 2014
.CLIMATE...TROPICAL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE GATHERING STEAM IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. MJO CLIVAR PLOTS INITIALIZED IN THE LAST DAY INDICATE THE MJO SHOULD BECOME COHERENT IN THE NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WORTH WATCHING, SINCE IT IS A FEATURE THAT COULD BUMP OUR PERSISTENT PATTERN OUT AROUND THE END OF THE MONTH.  BOTH ANALOGS AND THE MORE SKILLFUL COUPLED OCEAN ATMOSPHERIC MODELS DO INDICATE A SHIFT IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN TO MORE NORMAL IN FEBRUARY. IN FACT THE 16 MEMBER ENSEMBLE CFSV2 MODEL INITIALIZED ON THE 14TH INDICATED AN ABRUPT SHIFT IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN ON THE WEST COAST IN WEEK 3, WHICH WAS JANUARY 29TH THROUGH FEBRUARY 4TH. THIS WAS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PRECEDING DAY`S MODEL RUN, THOUGH. WE`LL BE LOOKING TO SEE IF THIS MODEL REMAINS CONSISTENT OR NOT WITH THIS FORECAST FOR WETTER CONDITIONS.
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Then you must have leather skin and a fast metabolism, lol. That blast in early Jan was ridiculous. It went from 43F to -18F in 12hrs on 50mph winds, and it literally hurt to be outside.

 

Right. I'm not situated on top of a mountain. I don't think anyone at sea level in the midwest saw 50mph winds. This really isn't the place to be discussing east coast weather anyway, Phil. You know that better than anyone. 

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Hmmmm.....

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR

250 PM PST THU JAN 16 2014

 

.CLIMATE...TROPICAL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE GATHERING STEAM IN

THE WESTERN PACIFIC. MJO CLIVAR PLOTS INITIALIZED IN THE LAST

DAY INDICATE THE MJO SHOULD BECOME COHERENT IN THE NEXT WEEK. THIS

IS WORTH WATCHING, SINCE IT IS A FEATURE THAT COULD BUMP OUR

PERSISTENT PATTERN OUT AROUND THE END OF THE MONTH.

 

BOTH ANALOGS AND THE MORE SKILLFUL COUPLED OCEAN ATMOSPHERIC

MODELS DO INDICATE A SHIFT IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN TO MORE NORMAL

IN FEBRUARY. IN FACT THE 16 MEMBER ENSEMBLE CFSV2 MODEL

INITIALIZED ON THE 14TH INDICATED AN ABRUPT SHIFT IN THE

PRECIPITATION PATTERN ON THE WEST COAST IN WEEK 3, WHICH WAS

JANUARY 29TH THROUGH FEBRUARY 4TH. THIS WAS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE

PRECEDING DAY`S MODEL RUN, THOUGH. WE`LL BE LOOKING TO SEE IF THIS

MODEL REMAINS CONSISTENT OR NOT WITH THIS FORECAST FOR WETTER

CONDITIONS.

It seems the approach of El Nino conditions and upcoming -QBO may force the ridge to shove off. Like Weather Phil said, the PV does indeed look like it will split (due to the ridge shifting West, and the PV trying to shift West so it splits since it requires sitting over colder areas).

 

 

I also noticed the QBO phase 6 conditions strikingly resembled our current pattern, signifying the QBO has been pretty active lately.

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Somebody should contact Jim.

 

I am almost positive that he has no idea that this new forum exists... he just thinks there is something wrong with the old forum.     Completely oblivious.    :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Somebody should contact Jim.

 

I am almost positive that he has no idea that this new forum exists... he just thinks there is something wrong with the old forum.     Completely oblivious.    :)

He was an Admin on the other forum. I highly doubt he had no idea it was being shut down . . .

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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He was an Admin on the other forum. I highly doubt he had no idea it was being shut down . . .

 

 

He did not notice any of the messages.    Guarantee it.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Somebody should contact Jim.

 

I am almost positive that he has no idea that this new forum exists... he just thinks there is something wrong with the old forum.     Completely oblivious.    :)

I doubt he does not know how to get here. Big old links on the other forum and he was also an admin.
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I doubt he does not know how to get here. Big old links on the other forum and he was also an admin.

 

 

Really?

 

He is thinking only of retrogression... ONLY.    He is like a robot sometimes.   

 

He would be on here tonight with the model improvement if he had any idea this place existed.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Somebody should contact Jim.

 

I am almost positive that he has no idea that this new forum exists... he just thinks there is something wrong with the old forum.     Completely oblivious.    :)

 

I don't think you're giving him enough credit. 

 

We were actually in correspondence a few days ago regarding the forum switch. He knows all about it. He probably knew before most of us did.

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I don't think you're giving him enough credit. 

 

We were actually in correspondence a few days ago regarding the forum switch. He knows all about it. He probably knew before most of us did.

 

Ahhh... well then maybe he just doesn't want to deal with us.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah, this may be Jim's chance to quietly exit if he really wants to. Hopefully he will join us though, I would miss his posts!

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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To lament what Jesse has said on the old board.  But, this transition is quite sudden and a little weird. 

 

I am all for it, but the way it happened was very strange.  It turned into an all or nothing kind of situation very fast, with minimal warning.

Yeah, I agree with all of this. I will say this new site is really nice, and I find the server to be very fast. Nice job, iFred.

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Yeah, I agree with all of this. I will say this new site is really nice, and I find the server to be very fast. Nice job, iFred.

I agree that response time, and fast updates of new posts is phenomenal, but the whole this is the new thing and good bye to Western just like that is weird.

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It's nice to look at. I suppose if you're going to get there(to a major pattern change and chances of cold/snow) you do have to start somewhere. Who knows this could be step 1 in that process. We won't know that for several days.

Is that dj magic mikes truck in your pic?

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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384 hr gets us to Super Bowl Sunday, and -22 850s over NYC...  :D

 

 

The Niners will handle it just fine... they played in colder weather in GB.  :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I agree that response time, and fast updates of new posts is phenomenal, but the whole this is the new thing and good bye to Western just like that is weird.

 

Yeah I know what you mean but we needed a change badly. With the rising central members it was good idea to change domain to more national feel and now we have owner that has really good skills with tech issues is def a plus.

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