Valentine's Day/President's Day Snow System and 16th Clipper

[Tom]

There are various solutions on the table for what could be a snowy Valentine's Day & President's Day after what has been a very cold 2nd week in February.  The ground should be plenty cold to allow fast accumulating snows.

 

GFS has been advertising a northern lead wave that lays down a pretty decent swath of snow from the Dakotas  down towards the Lower Lakes.  On the other hand, the Euro doesn't see the first wave as being nearly as strong but develops a stronger southern feature that tracks up the App's.  Still a lot of uncertainty but the consistency of the GFS has raised some eye brows.

 

Let's discuss... 

[bud2380]

Gfs looks really good and has been fairly consistent the last couple days. Euro has been back and forth. Plus right now I don't trust the euro. It hadn't had the best winter.

[bud2380]

Canadian is weaker and focuses more on the southern stream energy.

[gabel23]

Good luck to all, good storm to track. I'm hoping it can lay down a decent snowpack to keep the glacier going. That's one thing that has held the cold air at bay....besides super El Niño. Temps look to rise towards the 60's in western high plains next week; hopefully a deeper snowpack east of the Rockies can keep the pacific air west next week.

[Geos]

Not going against the GFS on this one. 

It handled the Ground Hog's Day storm well.

[Tom]

00z GEFS...the majority of them seem reasonable...

[Tom]

Those are 10:1 ratios...would like to see what InstantWxMaps has for snowfall...

[Tom]

Gfs looks really good and has been fairly consistent the last couple days. Euro has been back and forth. Plus right now I don't trust the euro. It hadn't had the best winter.

Can you post the 00z GEFS????

[Geos]

Those are 10:1 ratios...would like to see what InstantWxMaps has for snowfall...

 

I second that.

 

Went ahead and got a week's subscription.

 

[bud2380]

Sorry I only got a weeks subscription to iwmx and it ran out. 6z gfs shows more of the same and 6z nam on board too. Euro moved in the direction of the gfs as well, but a little weaker

[Tom]

I second that.

 

Went ahead and got a week's subscription.

 

0zGEFSsnowfall_021116.png

How did the 06z GEFS look like???

[Tony]

Not as good as the 0z runs.

[gosaints]

Looking like an advisory type lead wave probably weakening as it moves.  Followed by an interior northeast blizzard/coastal flood

[Tom]

Not as good as the 0z runs.

Would like to see those with actual snow ratios...wouldn't mind seeing 3-5" from this one...

[Iowa2015]

Differently be interesting to see how this plays out. Should be 3-10 ball park depending on Snow ratio I  understand never good idea to bank on 20-1 or 25-1 Snow ratio but we have cold air already in place so thinking most should end up on the higher end of the expected Snow totals.

[Tom]

12z NAM...

[Tony]

Not sure if on the NAM the southern stream is starting to take over and maybe a possible phase starting to take shape. Either way it looks like a decent snowfall taking shape around these parts.

[Tom]

Not sure if on the NAM the southern stream is starting to take over and maybe a possible phase starting to take shape. Either way it looks like a decent snowfall taking shape around these parts.

Probably going to see some different solutions up until Friday when the wave would be getting better sampling as it hits British Columbia.

[Tom]

Not sure if on the NAM the southern stream is starting to take over and maybe a possible phase starting to take shape. Either way it looks like a decent snowfall taking shape around these parts.

Do you have the 06z GEFS from instantwxmaps???  I saw you post them yesterday...just curious...

[Tony]

Do you have the 06z GEFS from instantwxmaps???  I saw you post them yesterday...just curious...

I found that from another site but I will try to get 6z. I think Geos might have access to this

[Tony]

Here is a model that I have not used or really looked at before but thought it would be interesting to post. Anyone heard of this model?

[hlcater]

12z GFS snowfall.

[Tony]

12z GFS looking stronger with the clipper

[Tom]

12z GFS showing a nice warning type event down from the high plains, pivoting towards the lower lakes.  I'll take it.

[Tom]

Here is a model that I have not used or really looked at before but thought it would be interesting to post. Anyone heard of this model?

Looks like the NASA model and showing this system phasing and going neg tilt a lot earlier.  I like the look of the HP off the EC which should allow this system to slow and dig.  Tracking these type of systems is always fun because it usually throws some surprises to qpf/snowfall totals.

[Tony]

Looks like the NASA model and showing this system phasing and going neg tilt a lot earlier.  I like the look of the HP off the EC which should allow this system to slow and dig.  Tracking these type of systems is always fun because it usually throws some surprises to qpf/snowfall totals.

With really no blocking, HP off the EC, and a strenghtening low pressure system, how could this not track farther NW instead of it just sliding east. New GFS run is starting to hone in on it but still a ways to go.

[Tony]

Also, a nice little clipper on the heels of this one putting down a couple inches.

[Tom]

With really no blocking, HP off the EC, and a strenghtening low pressure system, how could this not track farther NW instead of it just sliding east. New GFS run is starting to hone in on it but still a ways to go.

The consistency of the GFS with this system has me  a bit enthusiastic about this one.  Seems like the Euro is playing catch up again.

[gosaints]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016021112/gem_apcpn_us_16.png

[Tom]

Also, a nice little clipper on the heels of this one putting down a couple inches.

00z Euro has a more robust system next Wednesday (2-7").  Might need to start a separate thread for this one in a couple days to see trends.

[Geos]

How did the 06z GEFS look like???

 

[Geos]

The consistency of the GFS with this system has me  a bit enthusiastic about this one.  Seems like the Euro is playing catch up again.

 

And the GEM. What does the EURO parallel show for the first wave?

I would think with the second wave on Wednesday, if the wave goes negative tilt earlier it will back up west of the mountains. It's going that direction it looks like.

[Tom]

And the GEM. What does the EURO parallel show for the first wave?

I would think with the second wave on Wednesday, if the wave goes negative tilt earlier it will back up west of the mountains. It's going that direction it looks like.

12z Euro Para...similar to the Operational...

[Geos]

Too bad the wave doesn't close off, we would get lake effect/enhanced snow in addition.

[Geos]

12z ensembles.

 

[james1976]

That 12z GFS is nice! Its been fairly consistent. Hard to not put stock in it. That would be warning snows. Hopefully Euro jumps on board.

[Tom]

12z Euro still weak...similar to 00z run...

[Tom]

12z Euro, however, is trending NW with the secondary stronger southern wave.  It's looking similar to the NASA model Tony posted above.

[gosaints]

detroit could be in play on system 2

[Tony]

detroit could be in play on system 2

NW shift is in the works today. Let's see how far west it will go in the coming days.