Valentine's Day/President's Day Snow System and 16th Clipper

[Tony]

How is it looking for the trailing clipper?

[gosaints]

GFS is very much on its own

[Madtown]

Gfs has led the way most of the winter.

[GDR]

Yup go with GFS all the way

[Tony]

Just my thoughts but If the GFS continues to show this into tomorrow then you really cannot discount it as far as the northern wave/clipper system. I am not sure what to expect on the southern stream as it does not make any sense on what the models have been showing albeit the models have trended somewhat NW. There are a lot of pieces to this puzzle that need to be ironed out but what I think will happen is the southern low will continue to track farther NW(how far who knows) especially if it continues to strenghten.

[gosaints]

Just my thoughts but If the GFS continues to show this into tomorrow then you really cannot discount it as far as the northern wave/clipper system. I am not sure what to expect on the southern stream as it does not make any sense on what the models have been showing albeit the models have trended somewhat NW. There are a lot of pieces to this puzzle that need to be ironed out but what I think will happen is the southern low will continue to track farther NW(how far who knows) especially if it continues to strenghten.

If the first piece is GFS strong it isnt going to track further NW than say what the EURO shows

[Tony]

If the first piece is GFS strong it isnt going to track further NW than say what the EURO shows

Maybe give it a better phase potential....just throwing thoughts out here.

[Tom]

How is it looking for the trailing clipper?

Disappeared...lol

[Tony]

Disappeared...lol

Gotta luv the Euro for consistency

[gosaints]

nam is a turd

[Yerf]

[FV-Mike]

LOT's AFD update

 

THE GROWTH
ZONE IS FAIRLY DEEP COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO
REPLENISH MOISTURE AND THE COLD AIR IS STILL IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENT...THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY FLUFF UP AT LEAST A FEW
INCHES AND PERHAPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IL...SEVERAL INCHES. THE
NAM/GEM ARE LOWER WITH THEIR QPF AMOUNTS BUT USING A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF YIELDS A STORMTOTAL QPF OF ROUGHLY 0.2 INCHES AND WITH
AN AVERAGE SNOW RATIO OF 18:1 OR SO...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. BUT ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THIS IS
STILL 60+ HOURS AWAY AND THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CHANGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY SO ITS POSSIBLE
THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
 

[Tom]

GFS has some agreement with NOAA's higher rez experimental FIM model...of note, 850's are -8C and colder when precip falls.  Snow ratios should fluff up 15:1 or more.

[Tom]

12z Euro Para...it shows the juice in the high plains, but then weakens considerably.  The secondary wave amps up and tracks up through the OV.

[Madtown]

Mkx siding with the Nam in their Afd.

[Money]

Gfs is north

[Tom]

18z GFS...came in way north...I'd say that is fluky lookin'.....

[Tom]

More 18z GEFS members showing real strong OV/Lower Lakes runners with the second wave...something to watch for...

[Geos]

This system won't be sampled until tomorrow sometime, so things could change again.

 

 

There's another Clipper hot on its heals for Monday-Tuesday and that looks almost as strong.

[Geos]

The GFS did this before the Ground hog's day system to. It changed it's track for a couple of runs and then came right back once the balloon data was received.

[Geos]

Here's the FIM 8.

 

[Iowa2015]

Poof went the valentine day storm well north into Minnesota now. Throwing in the towel.

[hlcater]

Poof went the valentine day storm well north into Minnesota now. Throwing in the towel.

lol

[Geos]

Poof went the valentine day storm well north into Minnesota now. Throwing in the towel.

 

Still about a 1/3rd of the ensemble members are really good for you.

[bud2380]

here was the 12z Parallel GFS.

 

http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P25_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_108HR.gif

[Tom]

00z NAM baby stepping in the right direction....

[Tom]

I like the look of those heavier totals in the Dakota's...would bode well down the road if this wave can hold itself together for a longer duration.

[Geos]

I was going to say, the NAM is looking better. Low is farther north.

 

 

Looks like as the low passes, the winds go East, which may kick in some additional lake snow showers.

 

[bud2380]

NAM

 

http://i.imgur.com/Uq8EJmA.png

[bud2380]

I sure hope that last GFS run was a fluke.

[bud2380]

This run of the GFS a little better than the 18z run, but it looks like the big shift north it took is here to stay.  Good hit for most of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

[bud2380]

GFS with another strong clipper next Tuesday.  Hits Minnesota hard again this run. 

[Geos]

Would be nice to get just one bigger system, but I'll take it however is comes.

 

Both waves. 

 

[bud2380]

Canadian

 

http://i.imgur.com/t56R2aP.gif

[Tom]

Looks like the Canadian looking better...that run above was only out to HR 78...wonder if that band holds going east or not...

[Geos]

Looks like the Canadian looking better...that run above was only out to HR 78...wonder if that band holds going east or not...

 

 

6" almost into the Chicago area.

 

Model has the second system too, just slightly later.

[Geos]

Second wave gets you to 7" Tom.

 

[Grizzcoat]

Ukie-- got to subtract about 1mm for the snow event tonight over C.IA

[Geos]

PW map

Much better than a day or two ago.

 

[james1976]

There are TWO clippers now? Nice