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Valentine's Day/President's Day Snow System and 16th Clipper


Tom

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There are TWO clippers now? Nice

 

Yep. GEM, GFS, and it looks like the NAM have them both.

 

First wave.

 

post-7389-0-96576500-1455254912.gif

 

Both waves. Important note - second wave turned the winds off the lake with good delta T values in NE IL, SE WI for a time.

 

post-7389-0-93776900-1455255059.gif

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Ya, Euro seems to be the weakest link with this one.  NAM is also sorta trend weaker.  06z GFS looks pretty healthy but I'm not expecting more than 2-4" with the first wave.

 

As I write this, 12z GFS coming in similar to the 12z NAM.

 

I think parts of SD/S MN/IA will end up getting the best totals from this system.  Certainly weakens as it heads east but still enough to produce some advisory snows over here which would be a top 2 snowfall for the city of Chicago this winter.  That is saying something for how this Winter has been in the city proper.

 

 

 

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4-7 here GFS When will this be sampled?

Actually, the energy is coming onshore near British Columbia.  Tonight's 00z runs should be fully sampled.  However, I've seen models change once the energy skirts the Rockies which will probably be by midday Saturday.

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I think the EURO is playing catch up as usual. GFS is really holding pretty steady. It came north some, but now it's settling back to where it was.

 

Both waves.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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GEFS - first wave.

 

post-7389-0-40722900-1455300384.gif

 

Both waves.

 

post-7389-0-70190100-1455300615.gif

 

I think it would be a good idea to just extend the thread date one more day to include both waves. I'll let the thread owner decide that though.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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GEFS - first wave.

 

post-7389-0-40722900-1455300384.gif

 

Both waves.

 

post-7389-0-70190100-1455300615.gif

 

I think it would be a good idea to just extend the thread date one more day to include both waves. I'll let the thread owner decide that though.

Go ahead Geo's...makes sense...also, you can add the word "Day" after President's...lol

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Ya, Euro seems to be the weakest link with this one.  NAM is also sorta trend weaker.  06z GFS looks pretty healthy but I'm not expecting more than 2-4" with the first wave.

 

As I write this, 12z GFS coming in similar to the 12z NAM.

 

I think parts of SD/S MN/IA will end up getting the best totals from this system.  Certainly weakens as it heads east but still enough to produce some advisory snows over here which would be a top 2 snowfall for the city of Chicago this winter.  That is saying something for how this Winter has been in the city proper.

 

yes it would be nice. this is my total for the year so far. arboretum is 2 min from me.

2016-02-12 12.32.24.jpg

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yes it would be nice. this is my total for the year so far. arboretum is 2 min from me.

That is pretty sad!  Man, I feel for you...seems like everyone south of I-80 this season has been stiffed so far.  Maybe things change later this month into March, but by then, you don't really enjoy the snow sticking around with the higher sun angle, etc.

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yes it would be nice. this is my total for the year so far. arboretum is 2 min from me.

 

You only had 40" for the winter of 2007-2008! That doesn't seem right. I think all areas north of I-80 had at least 50" that winter.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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12z Euro from both waves...SD may get hit hard...parts of IA do well and along the Mississippi River...of note, Euro is getting a bit wetter each run.

I just do not like this model and I really don't trust it no matter what it is showing. Always seems to be playing catch-up.

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I know I keep harping on this but look at that EC High Pressure. How in the heck is that (L) gonna ride right into this and ride up the spine of the Apps. I still believe this will be west of where it is being modeled especially if we have a phased system which as of now is not being advertised.

GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

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I know I keep harping on this but look at that EC High Pressure. How in the heck is that (L) gonna ride right into this and ride up the spine of the Apps. I still believe this will be west of where it is being modeled especially if we have a phased system which as of now is not being advertised.

Euro phases it

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I know I keep harping on this but look at that EC High Pressure. How in the heck is that (L) gonna ride right into this and ride up the spine of the Apps. I still believe this will be west of where it is being modeled especially if we have a phased system which as of now is not being advertised.

If the high sticks around longer it probably ends up further southeast.  

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somewhere south of DC I believe.  That low is not gonna do anything to get chicago anywhere near the game on the main storm.  Ohio maybe sure

Was not thinking about mby only trying to figure out why/how is this going where it is currently being modeled. I can still see Indiana and parts of Michigan seeing something out of this only if it heads farther NW.

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this is only set  to current date today, not whole season. so as of this point in the season 07/08 we had 40"

 

O ok. I missed that.

 

I think I was around 65" by this time that winter. It was crazy.

You should be good to go with plowing in about 48 hours.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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NAM is playing catch up like the EURO is. These Pacific systems are laden with moisture and the high should give way enough like the GEM and GFS is showing.

 

I like 2-4" for SE MN for Gosaints.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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