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Valentine's Day/President's Day Snow System and 16th Clipper


Tom

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I'm doing a case study for this storm...never used it to track a storm this season....I know it performed well for the GHD Blizzard...it def looks similar to the RPM model and the GFS.

 

I've never paid much attention to it.

I will say these Pacific storms usually come in wetter than forecast.

 

Skilling has cited the FIM in previous forecasts

 

I think I might have heard of it several times before.

0.5"-0.6" at 15:1 ratios would be great.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I've never paid much attention to it.

I will say these Pacific storms usually come in wetter than forecast.

 

 

I think I might have heard of it several times before.

0.5"-0.6" at 15:1 ratios would be great.

LOT going with 15:1 - 18:1 snow ratios during the morning/afternoon period.  The FIM is a higher rez model, even more so than the RPM I believe.  It hasn't really budged in the main track since yesterday.

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LOT going with 15:1 - 18:1 snow ratios during the morning/afternoon period.  The FIM is a higher rez model, even more so than the RPM I believe.  It hasn't really budged in the main track since yesterday.

 

How often does it run? 4x times a day or 2x?

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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So far for my area they are calling for snowshowers. Nothing significant. Maybe an inch at the most.

 

Although, today, numerous snowsqualls around, making it for a beautiful scenery outside.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GEFS

A lot of good ones in there. #2, #12, #14

I think eventually winter weather advisory snows will be showing up by you too Niko.

post-7389-0-78580400-1455321464.gif

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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NAM became wetter, but still off from previous GFS runs. Pretty much doubled the snowfall amounts here.

System is still not onshore.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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#10 please.

If ratio end up being better, then that will make up for slightly less moisture. I hope to at least get 0.25" water.

 

Tom, how is the FIM looking?

post-7389-0-36470800-1455343329.gif

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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IAZ063>065-067-068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ015>018-024>026-034-

035-MOZ009-010-131745-

 

IOWA-JOHNSON-CEDAR-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-

JEFFERSON-HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-

BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-

CLARK-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARENGO...IOWA CITY...TIPTON...

MUSCATINE...BETTENDORF...DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...

WAPELLO...FAIRFIELD...MOUNT PLEASANT...BURLINGTON...KEOSAUQUA....

FORT MADISON...MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND...KEWANEE...PRINCETON...

HENNEPIN...ALEDO...OQUAWKA...MONMOUTH...CARTHAGE...MACOMB...

MEMPHIS...KAHOKA

338 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO

6 PM CST SUNDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS

EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY.

 

* TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.

 

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO GUSTS OVER 25 MPH LATER

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

 

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TONIGHT AND IN THE

20S ON SUNDAY.

 

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A MILE IN HEAVIER SNOW AT TIMES.

 

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED AND HAZARDOUS ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY

IN HEAVIER SNOWFALL.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

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