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Valentine's Day/President's Day Snow System and 16th Clipper


Tom

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Currently sitting at 1.3 inches after a couple nice bands moved through.  We should certainly reach 2 inches, but not sure about 3.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Flurries starting to fly here. Radar looks really good - better than I expected with trends last night.

 

I think 2.5-3" should be easy to achieve at these temperatures.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Synoptic snow has finally started in force. Should not be long before moderate snow starts falling here.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Based on radar imagery, looks like the main forcing should pivot right over N IL...

 

I see the 17z HRRR is pushing the 0.20" line into NE IL now.

 

Have built into a light snow already. Should be one of the better powder events this winter.

 

Visibility really down at Fox Lake.

 

 

Man, it's really coming down now. 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Low visibility and moderate snow. Roads covered. 18 degrees here. I love Sunday snow days

 

Same here. In fact the temp did fall off three degrees.

High end moderate snow here right now.

 

20 minutes after the snow started everything is covered already. Probably 20:1 ratio

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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You guys are obsessed

 

You're not exempt from that! lol

 

When you haven't seen much powder during the winter, every bit of it is exciting.

I could't live in a location that didn't get snow as part of a normal winter.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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:lol: ^

 

A heavy area of snow that is over the Quad Cities is forecast to slide towards Chicagoland by sunset. 

 

0.8" here as of 1:45.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Have not had a chance to look at maps this weekend so how is the next clipper looking

 

GFS south a bit and the GEM. NAM is coming north now.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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It's been continuously snowing here even though the radar is showing breaks. Low level moisture off the lake is helping a bit.

Your're going to get 3" without a doubt Tony.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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My final precip total was only 0.14".  In addition, the NWS talked about a snow to liquid ratio in the 15-17 to 1 range, but mine was only 13.5 to 1.  In my experience, ratios often end up lower than expected.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Probably the wind is shattering the snow flakes in the atmosphere, thus leading to lower ratios. Would have had more snow accumulation if the wind would have stayed light. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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DMX take on the 16th Clipper-.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

ONE MORE QUICK SHORTWAVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A
MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMUP TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. CONTINUED LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
SREF/GFS/ECMWF AS NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER BEING TOO FAR NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS HAVING MORE
PRECIP TYPE ISSUES.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE STATE
DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST TO MAKE ROOM FOR A
VERY FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP AND STRONG FORCING PUNCHES INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA B/T 03-06Z TUESDAY AND MOVES ESE ACROSS THE CWA B/T 06-15Z.
THE DEEP QG FORCING RAPIDLY EXITS THE CWA B/T 15-18Z AND SHOULD
END ALL PRECIP BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR GOOD
FRONTOGENETICALLY INDUCED SNOW BAND TO SET UP FROM NW TO SE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH STRONG OMEGA...ROUGHLY
15-20 UBAR/S WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER...CAN EXPECT A QUICK BURST
OF SNOW IN THIS AREA. NAM WANTS TO BRING IN A WARM LAYER ALOFT
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THINK THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOO QUICKLY FOR
THIS WARM LAYER TO MAKE AN EFFECT ON PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PLUS...THE WARM LAYER COOLS BELOW FREEZING
OR NEAR FREEZING ONCE THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION PUNCHES INTO THE
STATE OVERNIGHT. HENCE...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH MIXED PRECIP
BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT AT THE ONSET B/T 03-06Z TUESDAY.
HAVE A MENTION OF FZRA ACROSS THE WEST DURING THIS TIME BUT WITH
NO ICE ACCUMULATION. THE FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY
ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST. HERE...LEFT A MENTION OF RA/SN AS WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO MELT THE FALLING SNOW. ALSO
MENTIONED PATCHY BLSN ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DECENT CAA DEVELOPING BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. PLUS THE WINDS
HAD NO TROUBLE BLOWING SNOW AROUND TODAY AND WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON LOOK A BIT STRONGER.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Maybe 1.5" here. Way less than what the models were showing, except maybe the Euro.

 

Wow, I thought you were going to come out on top or near it. Is your ratio low?

 

Still some snow pivoting in from the WSW.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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