2/15-2/17 Clipper System

[Money]

Discuss the clipper system for the upper midwest/GL here.

 

GFS showing 2-4/3-5 or so. ECMWF/GGEM also shows the clipper system.

[Tony]

18z GFS run which includes a little light snow on Thursday

[Tom]

A little different take at the 18z GFS showing some respectable snows in Wisco....

 

 

[Geos]

Probably central WI to SW MI will be the corridor for the heaviest snows. Wet 10:1 snows or less on the south and west side.

[Geos]

0z GFS

 

[Money]

GGEM looks pretty nice.

[james1976]

6z gfs looked decent for iowa....took a sw shift.

[Tom]

00z GGEM is the most aggressive with this system ATM...

 

 

[Geos]

12z GFS has it as a weak wave going by Omaha now. Weak sauce for the 96-108hr wave.

[Tom]

My post above is including the Mon/Tue system, GGEM has it going south for this weekends snow.  Sorry for the confusion.

[Tony]

I honestly don't know why I continue to look at the GFS for anything over 24hrs out. It has been the most unreliable model out there this winter. The Euro to date has been better with large scale systems but has sucked with clippers(maybe a bias for this model). The NAM and Canadian have done pretty well this year so I would put more stock in these models and just wait till the GFS plays catch-up.

[Madtown]

Wagons South....lol this is just getting funny

[james1976]

0z gfs looking good for eastern iowa.

[East Dubzz]

0z gfs looking good for eastern iowa.

Indeed. No idea what ratios are, but at least a solid 1-3" event on that run.

[Geos]

Still looking like the 17th wave will be a mix to rain situation for areas south of Green Bay. At least on the GFS.

[East Dubzz]

Still looking like the 17th wave will be a mix to rain situation for areas south of Green Bay. At least on the GFS.

Yeah, but not much in way of precipitation.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Still looking like the 17th wave will be a mix to rain situation for areas south of Green Bay. At least on the GFS.

 

Well it figures, clippers pass south late this week and weekend and system early next week passes north and looks dry anyway.  Not our winter, but I guess I shouldn't complain because we hit average.

[Tony]

12Z ggem shows heavy snows for our area this weekend.

[FV-Mike]

Lot feeling better about the system on Saturday

 

FELT COMFORTABLE IN INCREASING POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO
LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS FOCUSED TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY EVENING AS THE CLIPPER DEPARTS. SIGNS
THAT THE WAVE THAT WILL PRODUCE THE CLIPPER WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT
TRAVERSES THE REGION...SO ITS POSSIBLE DAYTIME SATURDAY WILL END UP
BEING MOST FAVORED FOR ACCUMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
RELATIVELY DEEP/ABOUT 100 MB/DGZ...SO COULD SEE RATIOS A BIT HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...THE THINKING IS A 1-3" OR PERHAPS UP TO
2-4" TYPE SNOWFALL.

 

[Tony]

Models still differ on the strenght of the wave but should be some model consensus by Friday...hopefully!

[Geos]

Right now my forecast says 50% of snow.

[Tom]

00z GGEM...this will prob be a 20:1 ratio snow event with 528 thickness close by.

 

 

[East Dubzz]

Wow GGEM shows some real hefty snow totals for this. Interesting. Local net giving an early 1-2" guess for here, which is supported by the GFS. Probably the GGEM doing it's typical too moist stuff. I'm thinking another 1-3" event..

[Tom]

Ya, most mets anyway go off the GFS it seems.  GGEM def the wettest so I'd take a blend.  Could be a 2-4" event with higher ratios.

[Money]

Picked up 3-4 inches of snow the last 2 days here. Nickel and dimed to death this season.

[East Dubzz]

Latest NAM came in a little strong, gave me 2-4"

[james1976]

yup NAM looking good...see what gfs does.

[Geos]

This is the Saturday night system...? I take it is.

 

Local forecast calling for an inch.

 

[Tony]

12z GEM 84 hr total:

[East Dubzz]

Lol @ the GEM. That's with boat systems combined I assumed, and that would be a lot of snow!

[Tom]

18z NAM still showing snow but a little weaker this run...

[Money]

Love the snowhole here that run lol

[Tom]

LOT going with 2-4" for this Clipper and saying that this has almost the same characteristics as the one that hit C IL earlier today that outperformed.

[james1976]

DMX going with 2-3 for my area. Love this active pattern!

[Madtown]

1.2" final call for here, on the other hand thinking Monday could be a surprise attack

[dubuque473]

Radio says 2-4", DVN saying 1" or so....

[james1976]

gfs and nam both looking better!

[Hawkeye]

The models have trended toward this system blossoming over Iowa and then pooping out as it heads east.  It's looking pretty good for 2-3 inches across this area.

[Geos]

Latest RAP

 

[james1976]

advisory here!  2-3"