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February 24th-25th Great Lakes Snowstorm


Geos

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Looks like a snowstorm for somewhere in the Great Lakes. Right now Michigan is in the prime spot.

 

GFS came west this run.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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This looks to be a huge mess the way surface temps are in the 30s, if that verifies I'd almost be glad I'm missing out.

 

If the EURO is correct, it will be firmly below freezing in IL and IN west of I-69. Most of MI looks good.

 

There's something screwy between precipitation type and temperatures on the GFS. 

 

Storm taps into the cold air to the north quickly.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I was going completely off the GFS, hadn't checked the euro at the time of the post. But the GFS has had a slightly warm bias this winter if I remember correctly. It haslow to mid 30s for nearly everyone east of the Mississippi.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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LOT's AFD this morning notes both the uncertainty and magnitude of this system. I like the tongue-in-cheek humor "... somewhere between Wisconsin and Kentucky..."

 

"AS HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF AFDS...MODELS TEND TO
TREND NW WITH TIME AS THEY ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE STRONG CYCLONES LIKE
THIS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CAN ALSO HAVE A
TENDENCY TO BE TOO QUICK AND TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PHASING...AND THE
MAGNITUDE OF PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES IS KEY TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. HAVE UPPED POPS TO
CHANCE OVER SE HALF OF THE CWA AS A NOD TO THE JUMP TO THE NW IN
THE 00Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
MEANS. ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SOMEWHAT
MEAGER COLD AIR MASS ON THE NORTHWEST FLANKS OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEND ITSELF TO SOME P-TYPE ISSUES OR MORE OF A WET
SNOW...BUT THAT IS PROBABLY GETTING TOO BOGGED DOWN IN DETAILS
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. STILL A LOT OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM AND IT DOES WARRANT ATTENTION BECAUSE IT DOES HAVE
POTENTIAL TO BE LOADED WITH MOISTURE AND LAY DOWN A SWATH OF HEAVY
WIND DRIVEN SNOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WISCONSIN AND KENTUCKY."

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If the EURO is correct, it will be firmly below freezing in IL and IN west of I-69. Most of MI looks good.

 

There's something screwy between precipitation type and temperatures on the GFS.

 

Storm taps into the cold air to the north quickly.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016022100/gfs_T850_us_16.png

Its another.mediocre temp set up. Everything will have to go perfect to max out potential. Thermals suck
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There isn't much blocking this week, except a falling AO around -1. If this storm winds up fast, it will probably cut west like the GFS and EURO are showing. 

@ NW Linn - yeah the GFS has a warm bias. If it says mid 30s I would bet on low 30s.

 

EPS showing several solutions cutting through northern and central IN.

 

post-266-0-53935000-1456057346.gif

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Haven't done much posting since coming out here but it's going to be fun tracking this storm from AZ!  00z EPS has trended much farther NW and more members showing big hits around the lower lakes.  Anyone from STL/ORD/DTW is fair game with this system.

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@ Geo's, to bad thermals aren't colder because this would be a prime setup for Lehs!  Doh!  It's been the theme this season...either temps are marginal when the setup's are good, or its cold enough but winds are not cooperating.

 

Hey you left too early!

This is a classic late winter plaster snow setup where everything gets caked in snow.

 

GEM is the only model to the east now, but is coming west.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Hey you left too early!

This is a classic late winter plaster snow setup where everything gets caked in snow.

 

GEM is the only model to the east now, but is coming west.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160221/12Z/f114/acckucherasnowconus.png

I never left for AZ this early before.  Part of the reason why is I had to help my folks out with some important stuff.  Meanwhile, I really can't complain as you might imagine.  80's and sunshine does the trick...

 

 

I'd imagine the GGEM correct NW in time..especially, how it handled the GHD storm...it was the only model farthest SE till about 1-2 days before the storm.  

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12z GEFS keep strengthening this storm system each run...mean avg get it down to a 991mb SLP running up on the west side of the App's.  

 

@ OKC, might be another close call for you down there.  12z Euro coming in colder down near the Pan Handle/OK region.

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12z Euro gets it down to 987mb in NW OH at HR84...

 

That's a pretty good low position for western Mi and this area.

Thanks Tom! Have fun at the pool!  :)

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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OKwx better get in here, this looks like his storm finally. Nearly 2' down in the Ozarks.

 

Total run.

 

post-4544-0-86316200-1456079208.png

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I did some looking at several later season snow storms on the east side of Michigan and compared them to what happened here in Grand Rapids. Well, as I had expected for Grand Rapids (and even more so towards the lake shore) systems snow storms in February, March and April tend to favor the east side of the state more so then west Michigan (they also tend to be north of here also) While several of the bigger late winter early spring did affect Grand Rapids in all of the 18 past events I looked at the east side of the state was the so called “sweet” spot of the storms and most of the bigger storms were in March and not February. So in the past (and of course this can always change) If this mid-week storm develops Grand will be more on the western edge of the system and we could be looking at anywhere from no snow at all to may up to 6 to at most 9” of snow. In other words, more than 6” of system snow in February in GR is kind of rare. 

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I don't think your escaping the snow this time around westMJim. This year anything goes I feel.

The NAO will be +, so it will cut west and north of the Ohio River.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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12z Para...consistency among the Euro Op/Para is eye catching...Para drops it down to a 988mb in NW OH...should be a wind driven pastry snow fall.  Dynamic cooling will play a big role whoever is close to the track of SLP.  This system should have a sweet looking comma shape to it.  Fun storm to track.

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This thing bears watching, although, I think Mixing might be an issue for my area.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Track/Precip look good on the Nam, but temps are marginal...prob having issues with phasing this far out for the model to see it.

 

The marginal boundary layer is so shallow it's really not even worth noting. Dynamic cooling would take care of the last several hundred feet of atmosphere.

 

A sounding at ORD at 75 hours.

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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ILN says NAM too quick with system. Most likely a night storm for IL.

 

 

National Weather Service Lincoln IL
306 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016

High pressure will move across the Great Lakes region on Monday with
dry weather and temps lower than what we have had the past few days.
However, above normal temps are still expected Mon and Tue with
easterly winds and partly sunny skies.

Models all look in much better agreement, than with previous runs,
with the developing weather system in the southern plains and its
resulting track northeast. However, ECMWF has trended a little
further northwest with the low track and resulting pcpnNAM appears
too quick with onset of pcpn in CWA and general thinking is pcpn
will not start until Tue evening in the southern half of the CWA.
Pcpn will then spread northeast across the CWA overnight and
continue through Wed, and then just be in eastern parts of the CWA
Wed night. Most of the pcpn looks to be east of the IL river, with
areas just northwest of the river being only in a chance category
for now. Highest pops will be in the eastern and southeastern parts
of the CWA late Tue night and Wed. Biggest question now is with p-
type. All model soundings look pretty consistent that pcpn will
begin as light rain north of the system and before the cold air
arrives in the area. Temps will not be that warm to start with but
colder air appears to arrive in western IL late Tue night and then
progress to the east through the CWA during the day Wed. Worded
forecast will read rain and snow, but with the influx of colder air,
pcpn will change from rain to snow and there will likely be very
little mix. First idea of snowfall amounts look to be 2-3 inches
east of the IL river and north of I-70. Amounts will be less
northwest of the river and thinking 1-1.5 inches south of I-70. Snow
will continue into Wed night and then should end by Thur morning.
Temps Wed will be just below normal for the end of Feb.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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