March 1st-2nd Plains to Great Lakes Snowstorm

[Madtown]

Mkx saying rain to backside snow Tues Tues night

[Money]

Gfs going back to the more north/stronger solution

[Andrew NE]

That thing is a beast.

[CentralNebWeather]

Gfs yes please

[Money]

Widespread 14-20 snowband from southern minny to central/northeastern WI

 

Low tracks from southern Iowa east just south of Chicago

[Tom]

GFS showing 60-70mph wind gusts in CO/NE/KS!  Wow...another Blizzard in the making????

[hlcater]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160226/00Z/f132/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

GFS is an absolute beast this run. 1035mb high in CA keeps it relatively south.

[Geos]

Ice and sleet on it's southern fringe this run. Kind of like the GGEM had.

 

[Tom]

Wouldn't be surprised...its been Blizzard alley this year from the southern Plains up towards the Lakes....March roaring in like a mean Lion!  Not simba...lol

[Money]

Here are the 2M Temps at HR 126:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160226/00Z/f126/sfctmw.png

 

 

Low Pressure/Winds:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160226/00Z/f126/sfcmw.png

 

QPF:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160226/00Z/f126/6hqpfmw.png

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Ice and sleet on it's southern fringe this run. Kind of like the GGEM had.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016022600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

 

Horrible luck, if that happened with the storm tracking south of Chicago and still giving us mostly ice/sleet and some rain, I would have to just shake my head.

[Money]

That must be an insane ice/sleet storm down by Milwaukee with 2M temps below 30 and winds of 45-50 mph with 0.7 QPF and GFS showing hardly any snow. 

[Money]

Total snowfall:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160226/00Z/f150/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Geos]

Here are the 2M Temps at HR 126:

 

 

 

Low Pressure/Winds:

 

 

QPF:

 

 

 

With winds roaring down the lake like that the warm front will get pushed further south. Classic late winter/early spring setup.

 

Not sure what's going on in SE WI with that hole, but really doesn't matter now.

 

[Money]

GGEM def coming in better than 12z. Still not like GFS but here's HR 108

 

 

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif

 

 

Here was 12z HR 120:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif

[Money]

GGEM hits Chicago pretty good:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif

[Geos]

Horrible luck, if that happened with the storm tracking south of Chicago and still giving us mostly ice/sleet and some rain, I would have to just shake my head.

 

CAA would be hauling down from the north in that setup. Thin band of ice and sleet. Looking soundings Milwaukee would be more sleet and snow than ice and sleet.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

CAA would be hauling down from the north in that setup. Thin band of ice and sleet. Looking soundings Milwaukee would be more sleet and snow than ice and sleet.

 

That track alone would definitely favor more of a storm like December 28th, but 850 mb temps can get more iffy in storms like this this time of year, so maybe this is indicative.

[Money]

So, I think the potential is very good of a major winter storm hitting the great lakes Tuesday/Wed. Obviously, the track will still be all over the place for the next day or two, but I'm feeling good that someone in this sub-forum is going to get hit pretty good. 

[CentralNebWeather]

2 blizzards in a month would be asking a lot but what the heck, I'm game. Let's see how this plays out but at least a possibility somewhere in the region

[Money]

UKIE is a bit south of GFS but pretty strong:

 

HR  96:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

120:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

[Geos]

That track alone would definitely favor more of a storm like December 28th, but 850 mb temps can get more iffy in storms like this this time of year, so maybe this is indicative.

 

It's iffy definitely. We've both been burned this season.

 

Here is a sounding over 'Tosa at 126 hours. 120 hour map did not load. 

 

But this is a sounding that says sleet maybe some snow mixed in.

 

[Geos]

GGEM hits Chicago pretty good:

 

 

 

Looks like the GEM will be loaded with moisture again.

PW maps slow to load tonight.

 

That wave position on Sunday and where it pushes the front to, will be key.

 

Edit:

 

At 10:1 it's ok, not what it was last night, that's for sure.

 

[Money]

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160226/00Z/f162/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Money]

EURO HR 96

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160226/00Z/f096/sfcmslpconus.png

[Geos]

Low west of STL at 108 hours.

[Money]

990 just east of Chicago at HR 120 with 850's def cold enough for snow. 

 

Edit:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160226/00Z/f120/sfcmslpconus.png

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160226/00Z/f120/850mbtempsconus.png

[hlcater]

Euro snowfall out yet? SLP placement and 850s look promising around here.

[Money]

GFS Bufkit:

 

MKE:

 

160302/0000Z 120  06022KT  31.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.019    2:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.02|| 0.05    0|  0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

160302/0300Z 123  06024KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.274    2:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.02|| 0.32    0|  0|100

160302/0600Z 126  04028KT  26.5F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.43|| 0.507    2:1|  0.0|| 0.23|| 0.45|| 0.83    0| 19| 81

160302/0900Z 129  04023KT  26.3F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.009    2:1|  0.0|| 0.23|| 0.46|| 0.84    0|  0|100

160302/1200Z 132  03020KT  27.0F  SNOW   12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061    9:1|  0.8|| 0.23|| 0.46|| 0.90  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

160302/1500Z 135  01026KT  22.5F  SNOW   11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022    9:1|  1.0|| 0.23|| 0.46|| 0.92  100|  0|  0

160302/1800Z 138  36020KT  19.5F  SNOW   26:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017   11:1|  1.5|| 0.23|| 0.46|| 0.94  100|  0|  0

160302/2100Z 141  35018KT  16.2F  SNOW   24:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013   13:1|  1.8|| 0.23|| 0.46|| 0.95  100|  0|  0

160303/0000Z 144  34015KT  12.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   13:1|  1.8|| 0.23|| 0.46|| 0.95    0|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

160303/0300Z 147  34013KT   9.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   13:1|  1.8|| 0.23|| 0.46|| 0.95    0|  0|  0

 

MSN:

 

160302/0300Z 123  03022KT  26.1F  SNOW    5:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.587    5:1|  3.2|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 0.69  100|  0|  0

160302/0600Z 126  05028KT  24.0F  SNOW    6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066    5:1|  3.6|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 0.75  100|  0|  0

160302/0900Z 129  03025KT  22.7F  SNOW   15:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025    6:1|  4.0|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 0.78  100|  0|  0

160302/1200Z 132  01030KT  16.6F  SNOW   17:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056    6:1|  4.9|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 0.84  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

160302/1500Z 135  01025KT  14.6F  SNOW   10:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071    7:1|  5.6|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 0.91  100|  0|  0

160302/1800Z 138  36023KT  16.2F  SNOW    8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    7:1|  5.8|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 0.93  100|  0|  0

160302/2100Z 141  35019KT  16.4F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    7:1|  5.9|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 0.94  100|  0|  0

160303/0000Z 144  34013KT  13.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    7:1|  5.9|| 0.05|| 0.07|| 0.94    0|  0|  0

[Geos]

Euro snowfall out yet? SLP placement and 850s look promising around here.

 

I will have maps in a few. From south central MI west it looks good.

[Money]

North trend is the way to go

 

Ukie/Euro/GFS all agree now

[Geos]

 

Been digging around in the November snowstorm thread and it's playing out in similar fashion. Had some north runs, had some south runs, but in the end the track settled in the middle. 

 

Talk about resemblance of the November storm. This was the EURO 4 days out. The next day it did go north and hit the border area here and southern WI, but then came right back south.

 

[Geos]

All 3 models in range are pretty close together. ~100 miles. Not bad for 100-120 hours out.

 

 

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

This is certainly an interesting system, 50s Monday to heavy snow Tuesday.  What I need is something in between the GFS and Euro.  The 00z GFS is a bit too wrapped up and north while the Euro is a just a bit too much of a quick hitter.  It will be nice to enjoy a mild weekend and track a possible snowstorm. 

[gosaints]

Could still see this becoming a turd

[Tom]

 

 

00z GEFS were south and the 00z EPS were pretty consistent with 12z runs.  

 

Here is Gary Lezak's current thinking:

 

 

 

These solutions, especially that European model, fit the pattern the best. Omaha, Nebraska and Des Moines, IA have had these storm systems this season and this would put both of those cities over 30 inches for the season.  Could something different happen from this storm? Sure, but I am not counting on it.

 

 

[gosaints]

GEOS gonna end up calling for further se.  Lead wave wrecks

[hlcater]

12z GFS way south. In ARK-LA border it looks like.

[Hawkeye]

12z NAM and GFS both have the same look, a dominant northern stream that will sweep the system to the south and east of Iowa.

[gosaints]

12z NAM and GFS both have the same look, a dominant northern stream that will sweep the system to the south and east of Iowa.

and illinois and indiana