March 1st-2nd Plains to Great Lakes Snowstorm

[Tony]

Geo's/Tony, this is the type of storm track and temp profile you would love to see come into fruition.  The lake would enhance snow considerably.

Really an epic run for the Euro but I have to be a little concerned that only the Euro has stayed the course while the others have bailed. Saying that,  I would love for this to happen in a big way. The defo band on this is truely an awesome sight.

[hlcater]

It is a tad(20-50miles) south and gets wound up too late. If it just would wind up a few hours earlier and came a few miles north, I'd be in business

[Tony]

It is very rare to see this much qpf in the cold sector of a storm in the midwest. Sucked me right back into tracking this storm again.

[Tony]

This map has 2' amounts so not sure how accurate it is

[Tom]

 

This map has 2' amounts so not sure how accurate it is[/quot

 

Looks about right considering snow ratios...plus add any lake moisture which models this far out won't see

[jaster220]

12z Euro...1-2"qpf...hahaha

 

Serious chuckle, or happy chuckle? cant tell without a face read.    Fwiw, WPC already has us at ~ 1.7" qpf for this timeframe, so if we can just get it in SN form - look out!

[jaster220]

Tom, anyone,

 

Can you pls post 0z and 12z ParaEuro snowfall? Thanks!

[Tom]

 

Serious chuckle, or happy chuckle? cant tell without a face read. Fwiw, WPC already has us at ~ 1.7" qpf for this timeframe, so if we can just get it in SN form - look out![/quote

 

Neutral chuckle....one run only....at gym now and will post later on

[Hawkeye]

The euro's scenario would be one last pair of fingers to the eyes of snow geeks in east-central Iowa this winter.  That would be an epic storm, with a very intense, compact defo zone.

[GDR]

[FarmerRick]

You guys to the east can have it, I'll take the 50's & 60's.  

[Geos]

 

This map has 2' amounts so not sure how accurate it is[/quot

 

Looks about right considering snow ratios...plus add any lake moisture which models this far out won't see

 

I agree too.

 

There is no doubt that this setup would have convective snow elements to it also.

 

FWIW: the DGEX at 6z looks similar with the heaviest amounts placement. In addition some pretty good amounts in Nebraska.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/

 

---

 

Fuel for lake enhancement.

 

[Madtown]

....funny how all winter everyone rides the gfs. Then the euro blows up a bomb and it's like the other models don't exist. Have fun with this one if it happens.

[gosaints]

....funny how all winter everyone rides the gfs. Then the euro blows up a bomb and it's like the other models don't exist. Have fun with this one if it happens.

If the EURO like solution happens you are very much in the game but ya I agree the winter has taken the weenieism to a new level on this board

[Tom]

The fact that ppl get excited to see a reputable model within 4 days consistently show a healtheir system each run doesn't make them a weenie. A weenie to me is someone who thinks for certain 3+ days out taking one run verbatim and starts gassing up the snow blower.

 

Nonetheless, I get your point about getting overly excited to early. Commenting on a models run is just that, an analogy of what could happen.

[Geos]

....funny how all winter everyone rides the gfs. Then the euro blows up a bomb and it's like the other models don't exist. Have fun with this one if it happens.

 

It pretty much nailed the last storm, so let's see. 

It's consistency this time is something to pay attention to.

[gosaints]

The fact that ppl get excited to see a reputable model within 4 days consistently show a healtheir system each run doesn't make them a weenie. A weenie to me is someone who thinks for certain 3+ days out taking one run verbatim and starts gassing up the snow blower.

 

Nonetheless, I get your point about getting overly excited to early. Commenting on a models run is just that, an analogy of what could happen.

Oh I agree with everything you say.  What those EURO wx snow maps say for accumulations probably cant happen over that expansive of an area. 

[GDR]

....funny how all winter everyone rides the gfs. Then the euro blows up a bomb and it's like the other models don't exist. Have fun with this one if it happens.

yeah but this time the bomb is over Chicago on the euro

[gosaints]

We can probably also agree that how a model performed on a previous storm has no correlation to the next one.  

 

The EURO is the best model as statistics show so that is on your side.  Though most in here has ripped it all winter when it didnt show what they wanted.

[Tom]

We can probably also agree that how a model performed on a previous storm has no correlation to the next one.

 

The EURO is the best model as statistics show so that is on your side. Though most in here has ripped it all winter when it didnt show what they wanted.

I agree. However, GFS has had a bomb storm for like 4-5 days already and just recently lost its steam. My expectation is for it to come back.

[Geos]

EPS members

 

[gosaints]

I agree. However, GFS has had a bomb storm for like 4-5 days already and just recently lost its steam. My expectation is for it to come back.

That would be my inclination as well I would bet against northern stream domination this season.  As to the EURO solution itself we are still at a timeframe where the track could move hundreds of miles north or south or east or west and still verify quite well

[gosaints]

[Geos]

Thanks for adding that hour Go Saints. 

 

Not sure what it would equate to, but the NAM has a more southwest wave, with a series of weaker waves.

 

[Tony]

We can probably also agree that how a model performed on a previous storm has no correlation to the next one.  

 

The EURO is the best model as statistics show so that is on your side.  Though most in here has ripped it all winter when it didnt show what they wanted.

I will the first to admit I have ripped it all winter long with regards to it being 5+ days out and I am still skeptical as it is somewhat on its own but still nice to look at.

[jaster220]

WPC honing in..

 

 

[Tom]

Still alot of spread among EPS members of how to handle the wave as it skirts the Rockies which is very important how this system develops.

[Geos]

72 hours.

 

[hlcater]

GFS is stronger but still squished south.

[Geos]

GFS is stronger but still squished south.

 

Yeah - 

It has a chance to eject out, but doesn't. 

 

The trough now doesn't pick it up enough to move it sooner. It's down to a timing issue.

 

[Geos]

Does anyone know what the parallel EURO was like?

 

For the record - the GFS and EURO tracks.

 

[hlcater]

Ensembles are further NW than the Operational. A sign? probably not but something to hold on to!

[Tom]

12z Euro Para...very similar strength and track...

[indianajohn]

NWI special again? Lol

[Tom]

12z FIM-9...gets it down to a 990mb SLP...very similar track compared to the Euro/Para...juicy also...

[Tom]

Higher rez models seem to be honing in on an amped solution...

[jaster220]

Thanks Tom for those updates! FIM not quite as beastly as the Euro/ParaEuro thus the snowfall looks almost carbon copy of what we just got. Too bad all this warm air is going to work with a warm ground to hit our fresh snow pack hard between now and then. Hoping we can stay below guidance but that's been tough to do this winter. What is now, 5 months running above avg?

[gosaints]

Higher rez models seem to be honing in on an amped solution...

Except the nam but ya its the nam. Hopefully GFS brings it back at 0z. Ensemble consensus seems to have gone downhill. Solutions all over the place

[gosaints]

Thanks Tom for those updates! FIM not quite as beastly as the Euro/ParaEuro thus the snowfall looks almost carbon copy of what we just got. Too bad all this warm air is going to work with a warm ground to hit our fresh snow pack hard between now and then. Hoping we can stay below guidance but that's been tough to do this winter. What is now, 5 months running above avg?

About to be 6

[jaster220]

Higher rez models seem to be honing in on an amped solution...

 

Higher rez globals u mean? Not understanding exactly what you meant there buddy?